THE OVERVIEW Bill Haas is the poster boy for Hail Mary FedExCup champs. When he won in 2011, he entered the TOUR Championship that week ranked 25th in points. None of the other nine FedExCup champs were ranked lower than 11th. All the scenarios fell into place for Haas that week. The miracle occurred. Will it happen again this week at East Lake? Seems unlikely. Consider this: Of the top eight players in FedExCup points, three already have won in these Playoffs (Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson and Marc Leishman); three have finished top-10 in every event (Jordan Spieth, Jon Rahm and Justin Rose); and the other two are ranked among the world’s top seven players (Hideki Matsuyama and Rickie Fowler). It’s doubtful all eight will fall far enough to allow a longshot to swoop in and claim the FedExCup. If No. 6 Rory McIlroy had not won a sudden-death playoff last year, then the FedExCup would’ve gone to top-ranked Dustin Johnson. Johnson tied for sixth in the tournament, which would’ve been good enough to deny the other two sudden-death participants (No. 14 Ryan Moore and No. 15 Kevin Chappell) the FedExCup even if either one had won the TOUR Championship. Spieth is No. 1 in points this week and wouldn’t be surprised if the same scenario plays out this Sunday. “I think there’s a likelihood that I’ll be in that situation this year,â€� Spieth said. “I’m not sure. I don’t know who the Rory will be.â€� If there is a longshot FedExCup winner, who are the most likely candidates? Consider these three names: No. 19 Kevin Chappell – He’s talked about the unfinished business he has at East Lake after losing the playoff. He doesn’t have to answer any more questions about playing his way onto the U.S. Presidents Cup team (which he did at TPC Boston). He’s in solid form. And based on his four rounds at East Lake, the course seems to fit his game (two rounds of 66, two rounds of 68). No. 25 Sergio Garcia – His credentials speak for themselves, of course. Has just one top-10 since his Masters win, but he did play well (T12) last week at Conway Farms. Well-familiar with East Lake; this is his ninth appearance at the course. Although he’s never won, he finished solo second in 2008. Having sat out the first Playoffs event, he theoretically should be fresher than anybody else in the field. No. 29 Patrick Cantlay – Amazing effort this season to reach the TOUR Championship in just 12 starts. One of just two TOUR rookies in the field (along with Xander Schauffele). Has been playing his most consistent golf of the season in these Playoffs, finishing T13 or better in each of the three events. Oh, and one other thing about Cantlay – he’s one of eight players in the field making their first start at the TOUR Championship. On two previous occasions in the FedExCup era – and four times since 2003 — a first-timer has won the TOUR Championship. One of those was the miracle boy, Bill Haas. THREE PLAYERS TO PONDER 1. Jordan Spieth Displaying much better form entering this year’s event than he did in 2015; that’s bad news for the rest of the field. 2. Marc Leishman Billy Horschel showed in 2014 that the FedExCup can be won with a hot streak. Is Leishman following that same gameplan? 3. Justin Rose Only golfer in the world with the opportunity to complete this unique career trifecta: Major win, Olympic gold, FedExCup. THE FLYOVER The nines were flipped for the first time last year, allowing players to end their rounds on a 600-yard par 5 instead of a 235-yard par 3 (and theoretically creating the potential for more fireworks down the stretch). The new 18th ranked as the second-easiest hole on the course last year (to the other par-5, the sixth hole), playing to a stroke average of 4.581. “Hitting the fairway is crucial in terms of not only getting to the green but being able to get over the water,â€� said Justin Thomas. Here’s a closer look at the 18th. THE LANDING ZONE One of the most interesting par 3s on the PGA TOUR, the 15th hole can play drastically different depending on its tee-box set-up. In the first round last year, it played to 138 yards with a shorter water carry. (Incidentally, that was the shortest set-up for this hole in the history of the FedExCup Playoffs; traditionally, the shorter distance had been in the 150-155 yard range and used in the third round, not the first.) As for the other three rounds last year, the farther tee boxes were used, making the tee shot more challenging over the entire length of water. In fact, Jordan Spieth called it “one of the harder shots we hit all year.â€� The field stroke average for the 138-yard set-up was 2.867; the cumulative average for the other three rounds was 3.126 (see chart below). But as Dustin Johnson said, “You would take three on that hole every day. Doesn’t matter where the tee is.â€� Here’s a look at where all the tee shots landed last year, along with a stroke average breakdown for each round. WEATHER CHECK Isolated thunderstorms are forecast in the first two rounds by PGA TOUR meteorologist Stewart Williams, but he expects drier and more stable air over the weekend as Hurricane Maria moves up the East Coast. Above-normal temperatures are also expected. Wind conditions are expected to be negligible. Click here for the latest weather conditions from Atlanta, Georgia. SOUND CHECK “It doesn’t matter who you are or how much you’ve achieved – you always want more. I think we’re always very greedy and I think anybody who says that they aren’t is lying to you.â€� – Justin Thomas on being motivated after seeing good friend Jordan Spieth’s early success ODDS AND ENDS 1. SMALL-FIELD VICTORIES. Two years ago, Marc Leishman won the Nedbank Golf Challenge, a 30-man field on the European Tour held in South Africa. He beat Henrik Stenson by six shots. “That’s good stuff to put in the memory bank,â€� Leishman said. “Hopefully I can make this No. 2.â€� Two of Jordan Spieth’s 11 career PGA TOUR wins have come in fields of 35 players or less, including the 2015 TOUR Championship. He also has won the Sentry Tournament of Champions, as has Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed, Dustin Johnson and Sergio Garcia. 2. FIRST-TIME PARTICIPANTS. The eight players making their first trips to East Lake are (with FedExCup ranking) No. 5 Jon Rahm, No. 11 Pat Perez, No. 20 Brian Harman, No. 21 Adam Hadwin, No. 22 Kyle Stanley, No. 24 Tony Finau, No. 26 Xander Schauffele and No. 29 Patrick Cantlay. Rahm, Schauffele and Cantlay are playing in their first FedExCup Playoffs. 3. BUSTING TOP 30 BUBBLE. These five players started the FedExCup Playoffs outside the top 30 in points but managed to play their way into the TOUR Championship – Justin Rose (32), Xander Schauffele (33), Patrick Reed (38), Jason Day (49) and Patrick Cantlay (78). 4. WINLESS BUT ALIVE. Ten players in this week’s field advanced to East Lake without benefit of a win this PGA TOUR season: Justin Rose, Paul Casey, Matt Kuchar, Charley Hoffman, Jason Day, Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed, Tony Finau, Gary Woodland and Patrick Cantlay.
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