Scottie Scheffler clings to one-shot lead as TOUR Championship delayed

2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic, Round 1 Scoring Conditions: Overall: -1.3 strokes per round Morning wave: -1.92 Afternoon wave: -0.67 Current cutline (top 65 and ties): 78 players at -2 or better (T53) Top 3 projected cutline probabilities: 1. 4 under par: 42.3% 2. 5 under par: 27.8% 3. 3 under par: 20.9% Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Tony Finau (T1, -8, 25.8%) 2. Taylor Pendrith (T1, -8, 10.7%) 3. Webb Simpson (T3, -6, 4.4%) 4. Chris Kirk (T22, -4, 3.1%) 5. Si Woo Kim (T8, -5, 2.9%) 6. Kurt Kitayama (T8, -5, 2.4%) 7. Will Zalatoris (T53, -2, 2.4%) 8. Patrick Cantlay (T53, -2, 2.2%) 9. Cameron Davis (T22, -4, 2.2%) 10. Troy Merritt (T22, -4, 2.0%) NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Rocket Mortgage Classic, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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C.T. Pan … Given that he’s missed only two of his last 23 cuts, he’s already a default Sleeper because anything can happen on the weekend. After opening with three straight 71s here last year, his final-round 69 lifted him 14 spots and into a tie for 17th place. For the week, he ranked third in strokes gained: tee-to-green. As a rookie in his tournament debut in 2017, he sat T5 after each of his first two rounds before losing the handle post-cut (to finish T37). At just 5’6″ and 145 pounds, it’s not surprising that he does his best work on shorter tracks like 7,125-yard PGA National. Trey Mullinax … With six straight paydays, the last three of which going for a top 25, he’s not necessarily sneaking up on anyone. However, his propensity to mash it off the tee and pile up the scoring opportunities works counterintuitive to the objective of keeping the ball in play and targeting pars at PGA National. So, something will give in his second appearance (MC, 2017), but the relative absence of wind tilt the favor to his profile. Currently 50th on TOUR in strokes gained: tee-to-green but 213th in fairways hit and 192nd in strokes gained: putting. Kelly Kraft … Not entirely the focus of converging trends as much as he’s at the union of converging coincidences. The 30-year-old finished T9 in his last start at the Genesis Open where his overall game was just short of superb but much further from frustrating. It ended an 0-for-5 drought and a seven-month stretch without a top 30. Meanwhile, after missing the cut in his first look at PGA National in 2017, he connected for a T8 last year and led the field in putting inside 10 feet, missing only three of 67 tries, 28 of which from outside three feet. Carlos Ortiz … Now that he’s back on the PGA TOUR with fully exempt status, he can give PGA National another go. Perhaps the third time will do no harm after missing the cut in his only two previous appearances. The 27-year-old is 71st in the FedExCup standings with a pair of top 10s, the latter of which in his last start at the Genesis Open (T9) where he ranked seventh in strokes gained: putting. Adam Schenk … The PGA TOUR sophomore has displayed an affinity for shootouts, but there’s been evidence of grinding. For example, in his Honda debut last year, he ranked T13 in bogey avoidance en route to a share of 29th place, one of the better results of his rookie season. Having returned via the Web.com Tour Finals, he’s currently 46th in strokes gained: putting and coming off a T16 at the Puerto Rico Open where he slotted T5 in fairways hit and T6 in greens in regulation. But more than anything, his experience is paying off in his second spin on this circuit. Overall, he’s 9-for-12 in 2018-19 with four top 25s. NOTE: Sleeper is a relative term, so Rob uses unofficial criteria to determine who qualifies. Each of the following usually is determined to be ineligible for this weekly staple: Winners of the tournament on the current host course; winners in the same season; recent major champions; top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking; recent participants of team competitions.

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