Scenarios for Wyndham Rewards Top 10

2021 Farmers Insurance Open, Round 2 Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Jon Rahm (T2, -8, 24.0%) 2. Viktor Hovland (1, -9, 15.6%) 3. Tony Finau (T2, -8, 13.8%) 4. Patrick Reed (T2, -8, 9.9%) 5. Adam Scott (T2, -8, 6.5%) 6. Ryan Palmer (T2, -8, 6.3%) 7. Rory McIlroy (T14, -5, 5.4%) 8. Lanto Griffin (T2, -8, 4.0%) 9. Sam Burns (T11, -6, 1.7%) 10. Peter Malnati (T8, -7, 1.4%) Top Strokes-Gained Performers from Round 2: Putting: Will Gordon +4.3 Around the Green: Jason Kokrak +2.7 Approach the Green: Viktor Hovland +4.7 Off-the-tee: Brandon Hagy +1.8 Total: Viktor Hovland +9.8 NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live "Make Cut", "Top 20", "Top 5", and "Win" probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Farmers Insurance Open, or to see how each golfer's probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model's home page.

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A season like the one that PGA TOUR Player of the Year Scottie Scheffler put together is built a little at a time, with a succession of great shots. Some of those, like a near hole-out to go 4 up on world No. 1 Jon Rahm in their singles match at the Ryder Cup, provided no FedExCup points but infused Scheffler with vital self-belief for the season ahead. Others, like his chip-in birdie in the final round of the Masters, are so obviously game-changing they practically come with a thunderclap. And others still, like a crucial putt to ensure making the cut at the WM Phoenix Open, where he collected his first win two days later, can be fully appreciated only in retrospect. These 10 shots tell the story of how Scottie Scheffler put together his successful season. 10. BIRDIE PUTT WM Phoenix Open, second round Par-4 8th, TPC Scottsdale Scheffler was right on the cut line Friday at the WM Phoenix Open. After a so-so 68 on a low-scoring Thursday, the promising but winless PGA TOUR pro had made three birdies, two bogeys and a double in his second round. He was in danger of missing the cut with two holes to play. Facing an early exit, Scheffler, finishing on TPC Scottsdale’s front nine, was far from pleased with his approach from 148 yards at the par-4 eighth hole. But he rammed home the 34-foot birdie putt to create a buffer between him and the cut line. Scheffler signed for a 71 in the second round and made the cut with a shot to spare. Little did he know that the made birdie putt would lead to so many more, and his first TOUR win two days later. His victory at TPC Scottsdale would open the floodgates for an epic season. 9. APPROACH SHOT Ryder Cup, Singles session Par-4 4th hole, Whistling Straits There’s self-belief, and then there’s self-belief. Playing as a Ryder Cup rookie last fall, and the only man on the U.S. Team without a victory, Scheffler drew a tough assignment in the third match of the Sunday singles: then-world No. 1 Jon Rahm. Not to worry. Scheffler jumped out to a 3-up lead, then, from the fourth fairway, hit a towering approach that rode the right-to-left wind before landing, checking, and cozying up to within kick-in range for his fourth birdie in a row to take a 4-up lead. It was the moment when everyone, not just Rahm and his peers, began to appreciate the outsized talents of the 2020 Rookie of the Year. Scheffler would win, 4 and 3, to earn the United States’ first point, and while it would not technically provide any points toward his FedExCup-winning season, it informed what was to come. It also opened the eyes of veteran caddie Ted Scott. Watching the Ryder Cup on TV – and thinking he might retire after having parted ways with Bubba Watson – Scott would gain a new appreciation for Scheffler’s skills and they would join forces at The RSM Classic later that fall. 8. BIRDIE PUTT WM Phoenix Open, third playoff hole Par-4 18th, TPC Scottsdale After shooting 62 in the WM Phoenix Open’s third round, Scheffler’s magic seemed to have left him for the final round. He negated four birdies with four bogeys over the first 12 holes to sit three shots off the lead heading into the final stretch. Still in the honeymoon phase with new caddie Ted Scott, Scheffler, undeterred, birdied four of the last six holes to force a playoff against reigning FedExCup champ Patrick Cantlay. The two matched each other on the first two extra holes, with Scheffler making a clutch 6-footer to extend on the second playoff hole before making his move on the third extra trip down 18. Despite driving the ball into a bunker, Scheffler found the putting surface at a respectable 25 feet. Cantlay, however, knocked his second shot to 11 feet. Scheffler stepped up and sent his putt on its way. When it dripped over the front edge and in, he let out a primal roar. Cantlay missed his birdie try and Scheffler had his first win. 7. BIRDIE PUTT Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, second round Par-3 14th, Bay Hill Club & Lodge Sitting at even par for the tournament and 2 over for his second round through 13 holes, Scheffler was much closer to the cut line than the leaders, who sat 9 under. He found the green on the par-3 14th but was still 53 feet from the pin, a three-putt looking more likely than make birdie. Scheffler needed just one putt, however, curling in the monster for what would turn out to be the longest putt he made this season and another illustration that every shot does matter, especially en route to a victory. Scheffler went on to win his second TOUR title by a single stroke. The floodgates were officially open. 6. PAR PUTT Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, final round Par-4 15th, Bay Hill Club & Lodge On a brutal final day at a baked-out Bay Hill, Scheffler found an inner strength others failed to muster. He was in deep trouble on the par-4 15th, in the pine straw and behind a tree, when he tried to hit a punch hook up the fairway. The ball dribbled out only 23 yards into thick rough, leaving 149 yards to the hole from a tough lie. Scheffler did well to get his next shot onto the front of the green but was still 22 feet away. A bogey looked imminent, but when he coaxed that par putt home it kept his momentum alive and he grinded out three more pars – including an up-and-down from 67 yards on the par-5 16th — to finish a shot ahead of Viktor Hovland, Billy Horschel and Tyrrell Hatton for his second win in three starts. 5. EAGLE HOLE-OUT World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play, quarterfinals Par-5 16th, Austin Country Club Runner-up at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play the year before, this time Scheffler had to hole a 6-foot putt on the sixth hole of a playoff against soon-to-be U.S. Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick just to advance to the single-elimination Round of 16. He had survived a tough Round of 16 match against Billy Horschel, prevailing 1 up on Saturday morning, before meeting Seamus Power in the quarterfinals. Scheffler had given up an early two-hole advantage against the Irishman to be tied through 11 holes before wins on 12 and 13 established a buffer. The alum of the nearby University of Texas closed things out in style, holing a 30-yard chip from the upslope short of the green to advance to the semifinals. 4. BIRDIE BUNKER SHOT World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play, championship match Par-5 12th, Austin Country Club For Scheffler, playing in front of family and friends, it wasn’t just a prestigious World Golf Championships on the line. If he could win the championship match, he would become world No. 1. Through 11 holes he seemed near impervious to nerves or discomfort as he set up a commanding 3-up lead and sat just off the side of the par-5 12th green in two shots. Kisner had knocked his third to close range when Scheffler seemed to open the door, dumping his third shot, a short chip, into a small bunker. Was the match about to turn? Nope. With Kisner eying a 6-footer for birdie to cut into the lead, Scheffler jarred his bunker shot for his own birdie to maintain his 3-up advantage. Three holes later he had his third win in five starts and we had a new top player in the world, a title he’s held ever since. 3. APPROACH SHOT The Masters, third round Par-4 18th, Augusta National Golf Club The hottest player in golf seemed unfazed even by playing at Augusta National, and after he birdied the par-5 13th in Saturday’s third round he was 11 under for the week, ahead by five. But Masters nerves were a new challenge, and back-to-back bogeys on 14 and 15 gave the chasers a flicker of hope. He birdied the 17th before a hooked tee shot on the 18th hole that looked like it could change the course of the tournament. His ball wound up in an unplayable lie; after a drop, Scheffler still faced a 250-yard third shot from the pine straw. As three-time Masters champion Nick Faldo mused about what sort of layup Scheffler was contemplating, Scheffler pulled out a 3-iron and gave the ball a mighty lash. As it soared up to the green and ran a little long behind the putting surface, effectively taking a big number out of play, the patrons could only applaud in awe. “You can’t keep this man down,” Faldo said on the broadcast. “I didn’t see that one coming.” Scheffler got up-and-down to avert further disaster, and his well-earned bogey secured a three-shot lead heading to Sunday’s final round. 2. EAGLE HOLE-OUT U.S. Open, third round Par-5 8th, The Country Club A day after holing out for eagle at the U.S. Open at The Country Club – and getting zinged for misfiring on his celebration with caddie Ted Scott – Scheffler holed out again in the third round, jarring a 102-yard wedge shot at the par-5 8th hole. Scheffler had found the right rough with his tee shot and had to lay up but landed his third behind the pin and watched as the ball backed up and rolled into the cup. The fans went wild for the Masters champion and world and FedExCup No. 1, and this time player and caddie executed a perfect chest-bump celebration. Although the shot gave him the solo lead, Scheffler would ultimately finish tied for second the next day, one behind winner Matthew Fitzpatrick. Still, the shot was yet further confirmation that he can dazzle with any club, anywhere, any time. 1. BIRDIE CHIP The Masters, final round Par-4 3rd, Augusta National Golf Club To win at Augusta National you need a little luck, but you also make your own luck. Despite holding it together for a few opening pars, Scheffler was under assault from tenacious Australian Cameron Smith in the final group. Smith birdied the opening two holes to pull within one before Scheffler pull hooked his tee shot on the par-4 third into pine straw and trees. But thanks to a large scoreboard Scheffler was given line-of-sight relief, allowing him to get a clean look at the green rather than one obstructed by trees. Despite this, his approach with a wedge came up fractionally short of the green and fed back down the steep embankment. Smith’s approach was almost identical, sucking back to just a foot in front of Scheffler’s. Facing a tricky uphill chip, Scheffler played a low, skipping ball into the bank that hit the pin dead center and disappeared for a nerve-settling birdie. Smith was unable to get up and down from the same spot, and the three-shot buffer was back. That cushion allowed Scheffler to play smart golf the rest of the way home to set up a fourth win in six starts and his first major triumph.

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Contentment, and one of the game’s greatest coaches, helped Maverick McNealy join his peers on the PGA TOUR after two trying seasons. McNealy turned pro in 2017 after compiling one of the most impressive amateur resumes of the decade. He reached No. 1 in the world amateur ranking and represented the United States on two Walker Cup teams. He won both the Hogan and Haskins awards and shares Stanford’s school wins record with Tiger Woods and Patrick Rodgers. McNealy is still just 23 years old. Even in today’s youth-obsessed game, that’s considered ahead of the curve. This was a unique season on the PGA TOUR, though. Two of his teammates from the 2017 Walker Cup – Cameron Champ and Collin Morikawa – won tournaments. Matthew Wolff did, as well, just weeks after winning the NCAA Championship. McNealy admits that it was tough to not make comparisons and wonder why he didn’t have the same quick success. He knew others certainly were. “I found two gray hairs,� McNealy, who turns 24 in November, joked recently. That wasn’t a remark on his age, however. Struggles with his driver led to a stressful first season on the Korn Ferry Tour. McNealy saw progress after taking his first lesson from Butch Harmon earlier this year. There were changes to McNealy’s mental game, as well. He’s accepted the difference between contentment and complacency. He used to fear the former would lead to the latter. McNealy is playing his third event as a PGA TOUR member at this week’s Safeway Open, not far from his hometown and alma mater. We’ll let him describe his journey to the PGA TOUR in his own words (Note: conversation condensed for space and clarity). PGATOUR.COM: You struggled towards the end of your first season. How bad did it get? Maverick McNealy: “Last year, at the end of the season, I was in a really bad place. I had a really hard time with my ball-striking. I was really stuck underneath and had this really bad right block. It became mental. “There was a week there where I came home to Vegas and I lost two dozen golf balls in a week. I just couldn’t hit a fairway. When it got to Columbus (for the opening event of the Korn Ferry Tour Finals), I told my caddie, ‘I don’t know if I can play. I don’t know if I should keep going.’ He told me, ‘Just get your butt on an airplane.’ It was a heroic effort to make the cut in Columbus. I missed the rest of the cuts in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals, but that was kind of the turning point.� PGATOUR.COM: What did you learn from those struggles? McNealy: “I learned that, to be successful in this game, there are going to be highs and lows. You have to be able to get through the lows and there has to be a purpose for the struggle. “There are plenty of bad reasons to play professional golf, and I needed a really good one. I came to two reasons why. One, I think golf tests you in a lot of ways and makes you become a lot better. Golf amplifies all these emotions you feel, so you have to be better. This process of struggling and having to do things better ended up being why I love playing professional golf because it makes you have to improve. I love the negative side of it more now. “The second reason was I like to make a difference and make an impact and do good, and that’s also a driving reason for why I’m playing golf. I started Birdies for Education this year because, in high school, I did my volunteer hours with Curriki. It’s a non-profit for K-12 educational materials, trying to lower the cost of education and make high-quality education available to everybody. We ended up raising $385,000 for Curriki this year.� PGATOUR.COM: Was it difficult to not compare yourself to some of the young players who had quick success on the PGA TOUR in 2019? McNealy: “Definitely. The thing that helped me process all that was being OK with where I am. It’s not complacency. It’s completely different. I have to be content with where I am. That does not affect my drive to improve and get to the next level in any way.  “Exceptionalism is an impossible standard to hold yourself to. It’s something to strive for, but by definition it’s an exception. Nowadays we are so obsessed with everything that is an anomaly. With social media and news and everything, we hear about the farthest ends of the bell curve. That’s the hardest thing to compare yourself to. I just said, ‘I am where my feet are. I am where I am, I’m happy with where I am, and I’m going to try as hard as I possibly can to get better and improve.’� PGATOUR.COM: Was last year stressful? McNealy: “One hundred percent. Through my senior year of college and the first year-and-a-half as a pro, I didn’t deal with expectations, self-imposed or external, very well. I was living in the world of have-to instead of want-to.� PGATOUR.COM: When did that change? McNealy: “It was the middle of this year. My whole life, I’ve felt pressure to be exceptional. I’ve had so many amazing opportunities and such great advantages that I have to do something with them. If I’m in school, I have to get As. If I’m in the business world, I have to be a world-beater. If I’m in golf, I have to do something special. I said to myself, ‘I’m 23 years old and in my second season on the Korn Ferry Tour and in the worst case I’ll be in my third season next year. That’s pretty good.’� PGATOUR.COM: You’re very introspective. What are some ways you analyze your game? McNealy: “I write down the details of every shot I hit in my pin sheet. I can go back to any pin sheet – which I save and scan and have them all stored – and I’ll be able to remember every shot I’ve hit at every golf course. “And I write down an overview of how the day went. How my warm-up was, how I was feeling, how the round went, what I did well, what I struggled with, any feels I was thinking of, anything that helped me play a certain shot, anything about the golf course that I found noteworthy and what I worked on after the round. I have that all logged for every tournament. I like to answer the question, ‘Why?’� PGATOUR.COM: Your girlfriend, LPGA player Danielle Kang, helped you get connected with Butch Harmon. How did that come about? McNealy: “Danielle told me, ‘By the way, Butch mentioned that if you ever wanted to come in and see him, he’d take a look.’ I said, ‘Oh, really? He would?’ I went and saw him and three golf balls in he said he knew what I was doing. “Honored and humbled are two very overused words, but honestly I am that I get to work with him. It’s an incredible opportunity to learn from one of, if not the greatest, golf minds of the last 50 years. It’s pretty cool. I’m just going to try to learn as much as I can from him and be a sponge and work really, really hard.  PGATOUR.COM: What did Butch recognize in your swing? McNealy: “Butch makes everything really, really simple. He helped me to de-clutter. I was stuck between feels. I had a different feel every day. Basically, I was backing up. The upper-body was moving back and the club was moving forward. That brought in a two-way miss. I’d miss it left because I was afraid of blocking it right. “He said three things: On the backswing, load right. Go left on the downswing, and stand a bit taller with the driver. Three days in, I said, ‘Wow, this is the first time I’ve worked on the same thing for three days and it’s gotten better all three days and it’s felt better every single day.�

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