Officialsportsbetting.com Golf Betting Roundtable: Surprises, analysis from Wednesday at the PGA Championship

Roundtable: Surprises, analysis from Wednesday at the PGA Championship

FARMINGDALE, N.Y. – The season of championships continues tomorrow with the opening round of the PGA Championship. Plenty of storylines have dominated the early part of the week and here PGATOUR.COM’s writers tackle some of the big questions in the much-anticipated lead up. Tiger Woods is the talk of the town. What do you see from him this week? BEN EVERILL (Staff Writer): I expect Tiger will play well, but not well enough to win. Something tells me the rust from not playing might kick in just enough to keep him 3 or 4 off the lead throughout the week, keeping us hopeful of a charge that just might not eventuate. SEAN MARTIN (Senior Editor): He’s obviously won here before but I think this long, wet course will be a bit too much for him. He’s not the TOUR’s big hitter anymore. He has to play more of a finesse game. This week will be about brute strength. CAMERON MORFIT (Staff Writer): A guy who hadn’t won a major in almost 11 years suddenly wins two straight? At 43? With a fused back, in cool weather? Yeah, that might be too much to ask for. The time off (one month) and the physical demands of the course plus good vibes (’02) and good form add up to a T12 finish.   REALTED: Quick look at the PGA Championship | Rethinking Tiger’s future | Tee times, Rounds 1 & 2 | Spieth seeing positive signs MIKE McALLISTER (Managing Editor): He’ll play well. I expect him to be in the mix on Sunday. But I don’t expect him to win. Going to be difficult to recreate the kind of magic (and fortune) we saw at Augusta National. HELEN ROSS (Contributor): I think he’ll play well but to expect another epic Masters-like performance is simply too much to ask. Look for his name on the leaderboard but not on the Wanamaker trophy for the fifth time. Whose career would be most impacted by a win this week? EVERILL: Jordan Spieth. Winning the career grand slam in the midst of a serious form slump would be an incredible story and elevate his status into an elite club. MARTIN: Rickie Fowler. He has seven top-10s in the last 20 majors (dating to the 2014 U.S. Open). That’s the sixth-most in that span. Everyone ahead of him on the list has won a major in that span. Fowler’s time has to be near, right? MORFIT: Everyone sees Rickie Fowler as a major talent, and he says he sees himself that way, too. Actually winning a major, though, would leave no doubt in his mind and set him up to take his career to the next level. McALLISTER: Jordan Spieth’s. Not only would he complete the career Grand Slam – becoming just the sixth player to do so — but getting back in the winner’s circle will help quiet the critics. Of course, any first-time major winner would also be on this list, particularly a veteran such as Matt Kuchar. ROSS: Jordan Spieth. Finishing off the career Grand Slam would be huge for anyone, but in this case if could be a massive confidence boost for a player who hasn’t put together 72 holes of his best stuff in a while.  Which will have a bigger impact, the length of the course (7,459 yards) or the length of the rough? EVERILL: The length of course. If you can’t give it a serious poke out here you basically have no shot. Trying to compete with long irons into greens against guys with short irons will prove near impossible. MARTIN: It’s 7,459 yards that’s playing more like 7,700 yards because of the cold, wet conditions (though the sun is shining Wednesday). I think the rough will be the biggest factor, though. This course is already long enough. I think the rough only exacerbates the long hitters’ advantage. Having 140 out of the rough is a much easier proposition than 180. MORFIT: The length of the course. Kerry Haigh and his staff haven’t been able to do much with the rain, but they plan to top the rough today. That’ll make it more playable, but still brawny. I walked 16 holes out there and was reminded just how long this place really is. Shorter hitters can forget it. Medium-length hitters will have to be deadly accurate with fairway woods and utility clubs. A long hitter definitely wins. McALLISTER: Length of rough. The key will be to stay out of it. ROSS: It’s sort of like picking your poison, isn’t it? Longer hitters are certainly the favorites but if they can’t find the fairways, that advantage will be neutralized. Even Dustin Johnson, among the longest of the long, says he hasn’t hit more than a 9-iron out of the rough. Brooks said the winning score could be a few shots under par. What do you think? EVERILL: I agree with Brooks. The course is long, the rough is heavy… there are mistakes waiting to happen around every corner. It’s a par 70… I think four rounds near or just under par will have you well in the mix for a Wanamaker. MARTIN: I think 6 under par is a good target. The winning score in the U.S. Opens here was 276 and 277. Both of those were played in wet conditions. The PGA is traditionally a little bit easier. MORFIT: What does he know about winning majors? Oh, wait. That’s right. I guess I’ll go with Brooks. McALLISTER: Who am I to disagree with Brooks? I don’t see somebody going super-low, but neither do I see the winner finishing over par. ROSS: That certainly wouldn’t surprise me. Yes, the Black Course is a beast but 10 under won in 2012 when the FedExCup Playoffs kicked off there (although it played to a par 71 that week). Which is more likely, a player wins his second major or a player wins his first major … or someone wins their 16th major? EVERILL: A player wins his second major. Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Patrick Reed, Adam Scott… I like the look of this quintet here this week. Brooks Koepka might have other ideas though. MARTIN: I think the odds are in favor of a first-timer. Fowler, Matsuyama, Schauffele, Fleetwood, Rahm, Bryson, Casey, Finau, Cantlay. There’s plenty of strong candidates to get their first major. MORFIT: The most likely scenario is someone (goes by Dustin Johnson) wins his second major, but I’m not ruling out big-game hunters Fowler, Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele, all of whom would be winning their first. McALLISTER: Can I add another option – multiple-major winner? I’m thinking Koepka (three majors) or McIlroy (four majors). ROSS: I look for a first-time winner to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy. Someone like Rickie Fowler or Jon Rahm or Xander Schauffele comes to mind.

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ORLANDO – Francesco Molinari rolled in a 44-foot birdie putt on the final hole at Bay Hill that capped off an 8-under 64, taking him from five shots behind to a two-shot victory Sunday in the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. Molinari watched the putt kiss off the flagstick and into the cup, and the normally reserved Italian raised his fist and dropped it downward, knowing that would make him hard to beat. No one got closer than two shots the rest of the way. Matt Fitzpatrick managed only two birdies in his round of 71 to finish second. Defending champion Rory McIlroy started the final round one shot behind and never got anything going in his round of 72.

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Keegan Bradley is back at Brookline for U.S. OpenKeegan Bradley is back at Brookline for U.S. Open

Keegan Bradley isn’t freaking out about the U.S. Open’s return to The Country Club. He’s New England to the bone, but he wants to be chill. Zen. Think Tom Brady inside two minutes. OK, fine, this is the first time the U.S. Open has come to Bradley’s beloved Boston since 1988, when he was 2. And, yes, this is the most significant Beantown golf happening since the ’99 Ryder Cup, which Bradley watched from atop his father’s shoulders. And, sure, his dad Mark Bradley, a PGA professional, once met Boston golf legend Francis Ouimet. Oh, and in Keegan’s home office in Jupiter, Florida, he has a signed boxing glove from Lowell, Massachusetts brawler Micky Ward (played by Mark Wahlberg in “The Fighter”) and a shoe from Celtics legend Paul Pierce. He has the puck he dropped at a Bruins game, the coin he flipped at a Patriots game, the ball he threw at a Red Sox game. Who doesn’t? A U.S. Open in Boston is nothing, even if Bradley did graduate from Hopkinton High School, nearly 33 miles from The Country Club, which, hey, 33 was Larry Bird’s number, and beloved old Red Sox catcher Carton “Pudge” Fisk is the uncle of Bradley’s wife, Jillian, and – Oh, never mind. Bradley is sort of freaking out about this U.S. Open. But he’s trying not to. “It’s big,” he said in a lengthy interview at his house in Jupiter, Florida. “It’s the thing I’m most proud of; when you’re from New England, it becomes who you are. But I’ve sort of had to block this out in my brain and try to minimize it. I knew it was a big deal because no one in my family was talking about it, and then I qualified, and here come the texts. “It’s no secret,” he continued, “that this is going to be a tough week because of how much I want to play well, and when you try too hard to make it happen, it never works out.” The Country Club was, however, the site of the ultimate win for a hometown kid, when Francis Ouimet, a 20-year-old amateur who grew up across the street from the course, won the 1913 U.S. Open in a playoff with two of the greatest players of the day. They made a movie about that, too. Bradley knows all about it; he’s been told his dad, Mark, was 12 when he met the great man, who was by then around 65. Like Ouimet, Keegan Bradley has been overlooked. And like Ward, he has been knocked down only to pick himself up off the mat. Into the teeth of the storm Bradley wanted to play for a college golf powerhouse, but it didn’t happen, so he went to St. John’s University in Queens, New York. (He now says it was the best possible place for him.) “It’s tough to get many looks when you come from Massachusetts,” said Jon Curran, Bradley’s friend from Hopkinton High, who played the PGA TOUR and now works in insurance. “Golf in Massachusetts is just not cool, and if you were good at it, it felt like we were super nerds.” Or super rugged; Bradley might have picked a more golf-friendly climate than Woodstock, Vermont (before his dad took a club pro job in Hopkinton), but that, too, was formative. Golf in the snow and sleet? Bring it on. He has become America’s premier bad-weather golfer. At this year’s PLAYERS Championship, in brutal wind and cold, Bradley got the wrong end of the draw and finished fifth. At the rain-plagued Wells Fargo Championship, he tied for second. That finish clinched his spot in this year’s U.S. Open, earning him an exemption via the world ranking that allowed him to skip the uncertainty of Final Qualifying. At the 2011 Bryon Nelson, his first TOUR win, weekend rounds featured winds of 25 mph with gusts hitting 40. He’s made so much hay in bad weather he’s basically human Gore-Tex. “He’s so into his process and practices really, really well, and efficiently, so when things have a chance to go awry, his stuff’s really tight,” Curran said. “It takes a lot more than some rain or cold for stuff to go off kilter, and that’s because of all the work that he puts in.” The most challenging storm for him has been golf’s anchoring ban, which went into effect in 2016. Bradley, who had used a belly-putter, was suddenly adrift. “I think I underestimated the effect of it,” he said. Although he made the 2012 and 2014 U.S. Ryder Cup teams, and the 2013 U.S. Presidents Cup team, Bradley was knocked backward and took up a grim residency outside the top 150 in Strokes Gained: Putting. And the stress of it all crept into other facets of his game. Ah, but this is Bradley we’re talking about. Former ski racer. Overlooked amateur golfer. He likes it hard and rebuilt his game under the tutelage of coach Darren May, who teaches at Grove XXIII, the South Florida club built by the basketball legend Michael Jordan, who Bradley counts as a friend. (A framed scorecard in his office commemorates the Medalist member-guest in which Bradley and Jordan were teammates, signed by Tiger Woods, who played with Ahmad Rashad.) Bradley controlled what he could control, which meant making sure he was one of the TOUR’s best from tee to green. He would be ready when his putting came back to him. If it came back. “I’ve been on every putting machine ever made,” he said. “And the people running them would say, ‘Your stroke looks great!’ And that was even more infuriating.” Determined to find answers, Bradley finally sought help from renowned putting coach Phil Kenyon, and they began working together at THE CJ CUP @ SUMMIT last October. “Technically he was in a good place; whatever journey he’d been on, he wasn’t a basket case,” said Kenyon, who also works with Max Homa, Francesco Molinari and others. “It was about getting him to believe in his technical skills, because golf is so much about confidence, but it was also about improving his green-reading and alignment.” Their work has paid big dividends. Bradley led the field in putting at the Wells Fargo and was gaining strokes on the field on the greens as of last week (81st in Strokes Gained: Putting). “My green-reading is so much better,” he said. Curran said the stats were always somewhat deceiving. “He was never a bad putter,” he said. “It was never a thing like, ooh, boy, you gotta look away. Whenever we played him for money at the Grove or Bear’s Club, the guy was freakin’ good no matter what he used. You were thinking he was going to make everything he looked at.” Boston to his core That Bradley sticks in the fight goes to his Boston roots, and that Micky Ward boxing glove. “I love everything about his story,” Bradley said. “He’s the perfect Boston athlete, just a hard-nosed, blue-collar guy. Tough. Resilient. I love the movie, love everything about his career. And my dad’s side of the family is from near Lowell, so to them he’s an even bigger hero.” Bradley battled through the anchoring ban to win the BMW Championship in 2018, his first win in six years. But this latest resurgence is another example of his resilience. Last year, he dropped out of the top 150 in the world ranking for the first time since 2011, back when he was a winless TOUR rookie. Now he’s back inside the top 50 thanks to five top-10s already this season, four of which have come since March. At 33rd in the FedExCup entering last week, he’s on pace for his best FedExCup finish in four years. Brendan Steele, Bradley’s BFF on TOUR and partner at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans (they finished T4 in April), calls Bradley the quintessential grinder. “He says, ‘I always want to shoot the best score I can,’” Steele said. “He doesn’t subscribe to the theory of, if he’s 8 over, he may as well go for it and blast driver, like a lot of guys out here. He’s like, no, no, I still want to shoot the best score I can.” Bradley’s aunt is LPGA Hall of Famer Pat Bradley, and he recalls trying to catch her attention during tournaments only to have her look right through him. “She was so dialed in she wouldn’t even see me,” he said. “I remember thinking how cool that was.” Keegan, too, gets dialed in and stays there, come what may. In addition to his remarkable bad-weather rounds, he overcame a late triple bogey and won in a playoff over Jason Dufner at the 2011 PGA Championship, his first-ever major. (So much for rookie nerves.) There is something very Bostonian about that. It’s Ward refusing to stay down; the Red Sox besting the New York Yankees after going down 0-3 in the 2004 ALCS; Brady and New England’s history-making 2017 Super Bowl comeback against the Atlanta Falcons. It all seems to be in Bradley’s blood. “He lives and dies Patriots,” Steele said. “We’ve got a group text with Jon Curran and Jamie Lovemark, and Keegan sends us something about the Patriots almost daily. It’s like, come on, dude! We’re at that portion of the day where we’ve got to talk about the Patriots? In April?” Added Curran, “He’s very well informed. He listens to Felger and Mazz, which is like the local sports radio feed. I don’t know how he gets it, but he does. He’ll text like an op-ed piece from the bowels of the internet on what’s going on with the Patriots.” Bradley will throw out the first pitch before the Red Sox/A’s game Tuesday, and he’s determined to enjoy it more than he did in 2011, when the New York Yankees were in town and the stands were swollen with fans. Standing on the hallowed Fenway dirt for the biggest 60-foot-6-inch toss of his life, Bradley was a nervous wreck, and it didn’t help that Red Sox pitchers Tim Wakefield and Jon Lester gave him conflicting advice on whether he should throw from the windup. “They’re both golfers,” he said, “and I think they were messing with me.” Also, he was hoping to throw to big Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek; instead, out came 5-foot-8-inch second baseman Dustin Pedroia. (Yep, definitely messing with him.) In the end, Bradley didn’t throw from the windup, although it was all such a blur, he barely remembers anything. “I threw it a little high,” he said, “but I wasn’t going to bounce it up there. It was a 5 out of 10.” In his day job, he wants to contend five times a year. He wants to make the U.S. Presidents Cup Team that will defend its title at Quail Hollow in the fall. And he wants to look good. Bradley is a Jordan athlete who recently had to rent a storage unit for his sprawling shoe collection, much to Jill’s relief, and he’s had a special pair made up for this U.S. Open. “They’re going to be decked out with Boston stuff,” Curran said. “I think there’s something about Carlton Fisk on there, and other stuff, and this is a guy who doesn’t love attention.” Could Bradley win his second major and fifth TOUR title overall this week? He has not lifted a trophy since the 2018 BMW Championship, but odd things happen at The Country Club, where Ouimet beat favored Harry Vardon and Ted Ray in 1913. This, too, was where Ben Crenshaw’s U.S. Ryder Cup team trailed 10-6 when Crenshaw wagged his finger and said, “I’m a big believer in fate; I have a good feeling about tomorrow.” The Americans won, 14.5–13.5. “We went Friday and Sunday,” Bradley said of that historic week, when asked about it at the 2014 Ryder Cup. “I was on my dad’s shoulders when Justin made that putt. I was on 18 green, but I could see through the trees, and I remember seeing all the red shirts running by.” It was, at the time, the greatest comeback in the history of the event. And there it is again. Willpower. Fortitude. Bradley has seen players go through a dip, only to rally at the end their careers. He’s only 35. He hopes he can conjure something similar. “Almost every week, someone will say, ‘It’s so great to see you playing good again,’” he said. “And I’ll thank them, but it’s not really a compliment. I’ve made the second-to-last playoff event every year but twice, and one of those was during COVID, which was weird for everybody, playing different courses. I feel like I’ve been pretty consistent, even though it’s top-heavy early in my career. I have a lot of good years left, and I’ve got more to prove.”

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