Shinnecock Hills is a hard act to follow, figuratively and literally, but if any course is capable, it’s Carnoustie Golf Links in Scotland, host of The Open Championship. Indeed, if any of the 81 in the field at the 148th edition of the season’s third major who was victimized at the U.S. Open and is now digging in his heels in pursuit of the Claret Jug, Carnoustie is ready to remind the world that it’s right up there among the world’s most challenging tests. Beneath this full-field Power Rankings is more on the course that has co-hosted the European Tour’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship since 2001, how to survive it and other trends that project success. Off since he finished third at Shinnecock Hills, so he’s poised to unleash that disappointment with a bevy of drivers at Carnoustie. With his precision, it could get silly for the World No. 1. As prepared as he can be. Solid record in The Open with a pair of top fives baked into a 7-for-8 slate. Three top fives and another three top 25s in his last six majors. It’s his time. A legitimate contender every time he plays. Four wins in last 19 starts worldwide. Third appearance at Carnoustie in The Open; T12 in 2007. Seventh(!) on TOUR in strokes gained: putting. Remember that the U.S. Open champ cut his professional teeth in Europe. Co-runner-up in the last of three appearances at the Dunhill Links in 2015. Still fresher than most since injury. Took two weeks off after coming out on top of a dynamite field at the Open de France. It’s one of five top-three finishes in 2018. Veteran of eight Dunhill Links appearances; three top 20s. He wasn’t ready for Shinnecock Hills, but it hasn’t deterred his long game. He bracketed the missed cut with T5s in Fort Worth and in France, and then added a T4 in Ireland. Will pound drivers. Last seen by U.S. fans racing home in 63 at Shinnecock Hills to finish alone in second place. Owns the course record at Carnoustie (63). Also 7-for-7 in the Dunhill Links. Not unfamiliar with Carnoustie, but has zero top 35s in seven starts at the Dunhill Links. Also facing challenge of long trip following his T2 in the Quad Cities, but in career-best form. The Race to Dubai leader – that’s not a typo – placed T23 in Scotland on Sunday. Chased his Masters breakthrough with a solo fourth at the U.S. Open. Potent combo of power and imagination. Rested since a co-runner-up finish at the Travelers. Only three finishes outside the top 20 anywhere in the last 13 months. The 11-time veteran of the Dunhill Links placed T27 at the 2007 Open. The 2015 champ at St. Andrews has five top 15s in his last six Opens. It makes sense given the test of grit and elements that cater to his wheelhouse. Top 20s in last three starts upon arrival. The only constant for the last year-plus is his inconsistency, relatively speaking, but it doesn’t mean he’s any less dangerous. Three-time runner-up of the Dunhill Links (2009, 2011, 2014). Relatively silent since runner-up finish at Trinity Forest, but that blend of barren land with a bit of wind is why he’s among the favorites at Carnoustie. Three top-six finishes in last three Opens. Winner of the last two Dunhill Links Championships. The Englishman also is surging after a T6-T16-T9 sprint from Shinnecock Hills to France to Scotland. T5 at the 2016 Open Championship. The hard-track specialist has four top 10s and another four top 25s in 2018, including a T25 at Shinnecock Hills. Benefited by only two par 5s. Winner of the 2012 Dunhill Links. Maybe the Nappy Factor is finally kicking in. After nearly three months of struggle, he’s finished T12 (Italy) and T8 (France) in last two starts. Playoff victim at the 2007 Open Championship. Has only one top 20 in seven Opens (T4 at St. Andrews in 2015), but he’d be hard to beat around and on the greens anywhere, including at Carnoustie. Two wins among four top fives in 2018. Seeks to turn the page on an eventful few weeks since the U.S. Open. Prior to it, he was crashing most leaderboards. The 2013 Open champion should enjoy and thrive on dried-out Carnoustie. The 25-year-old has yet to showcase a knack for links-style golf, but the only thing lacking is more experience to prove otherwise. Currently second in the FedExCup and Official World Golf Ranking. With his power and precision tee-to-green, he gets benefit of the doubt over relatively lackluster return from injury. Connected three top 20s through the U.S. Open. Three top 20s in five Opens. RANK PLAYER COMMENT POWER RANKINGS: THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP WILD CARD Jordan Spieth … Even though he’s the defending champion, he’s competing at Carnoustie for the first time and in a field that has exhibited much better form as a whole than he has over the last three months. Consider that he’s gone seven starts (since the back-door solo third at the Masters) without a top-20 finish. The drought includes a T41 at THE PLAYERS and a missed cut at the U.S. Open. When humming along as he has for the majority of his career, he should be a target on courses like this week’s that rewards guile and moxie, but in a week that favors bombers when he arrives without his A-game, it’d be surprising if he contends. NOTE: The remaining 135 golfers in the field of 156 are segregated as seen below. Those who competed professionally last week are noted. Of the 26 golfers who finished inside the top 25 at the 2017 Open Championship, 19 played the week prior. Champion Jordan Spieth did not, but the majority proves that sharpening the skill set immediately in advance was of value. CHALLENGERS If you’d prefer, label them as the snubs from the Power Rankings. Each could appear and few would argue. Ranked in order of Rob’s confidence (* – competed last week) *Ian Poulter Tony Finau *Russell Knox *Andy Sullivan Tiger Woods (2000/2005/2006 champ) Webb Simpson *Matthew Fitzpatrick *Charley Hoffman Keegan Bradley Xander Schauffele Henrik Stenson (2016 champ; nursing a sore elbow) *Rafa Cabrera Bello *Kiradech Aphibarnrat *Lee Westwood Kevin Na Adam Scott *Matt Kuchar *Ryan Moore Jimmy Walker Charl Schwartzel Brandt Snedeker *Louis Oosthuizen (2010 champ; withdrew during the first round of the Scottish Open with a sore right shoulder) SLEEPERS Because it’s a major, loosen the restraints as to who qualifies as a Sleeper. Ignore current world ranking, distant victories in majors and recent inclusion in team competition. Ranked in order of Rob’s confidence (* – competed last week; ^ – debutant) Thorbjørn Olesen *Ryan Fox Russell Henley Emiliano Grillo *Chris Wood *Peter Uihlein *Alexander Björk *Paul Dunne Anirban Lahiri *Thomas Pieters *Dylan Frittelli Byeong Hun An *^Matt Wallace *Matthew Southgate Jason Dufner *Julian Suri *^Jazz Janewattananond *Hao Tong Li *Nicolas Colsaerts *Grant Forrest QUESTION MARKS This cuts both ways. For golfers who have yet to scale to a position from which they can disappoint, they remain full of promise. On the other side of the ledger are talents, many of whom household names, who present negatively for any number of reasons. The doubt includes, but is not limited to, form upon arrival, course fit, history in majors, overall career trajectory and relative inexperience in the face of higher expectations. ARROW UP Ranked in order of Rob’s confidence (* – competed last week; ^ – debutant) *^Luke List ^Patrick Cantlay *Eddie Pepperell Brian Harman *Danny Willett *Chesson Hadley *Brandon Stone *^Jorge Campillo Shane Lowry *^Austin Cook Bubba Watson ^Beau Hossler Stewart Cink Charles Howell III Gary Woodland *^Jess Dantorp Michael Hendry Retief Goosen *^Kelly Kraft *Matt Jones *^Andrew Landry ^Ryan Armour *^Bronson Burgoon Adam Hadwin Yuta Ikeda *^Gavin Green ^Shota Akiyoshi Tom Lewis Sang-Hyun Park ^Minchel Choi ^Abraham Ancer ^Danthai Boonma Shaun Norris Kodai Ichihara *^Michael Kim *Sung Kang Jason Kokrak *^Erik van Rooyen *Jack Senior ^Ryuko Tokimatsu ^Brady Schnell *^Ashton Turner ARROW DOWN Ranked in order of Rob’s confidence (* – competed last week; ^ – debutant) *Ross Fisher Jhonattan Vegas Daniel Berger *Cameron Smith Kevin Kisner *Martin Kaymer *Kyle Stanley *Padraig Harrington *Bryson DeChambeau (withdrew during the opening round of the John Deere Classic with soreness in his right shoulder) *Si Woo Kim *George Coetzee Pat Perez *Kevin Chappell Brendan Steele *Chez Reavie Oliver Wilson ^Marcus Kinhult ^Cameron Davis ^Lucas Herbert *Scott Jamieson *^Jordan L. Smith *Ernie Els Satoshi Kodaira *Patton Kizzire *Jonas Blixt *Hideto Tanihara *^Shubhankar Sharma *Brett Rumford *Fabrizio Zanotti *Zander Lombard *Bernhard Langer *Alexander Levy ^James Robinson *Tom Lehman *Yusaku Miyazato Rhys Enoch Masanori Kobayashi ^Haraldur Magnus ^Marcus Armitage ^Masahiro Kawamura ^Sean Crocker ^Thomas Curtis *Mark Calcavecchia David Duval *Sandy Lyle *Todd Hamilton *Darren Clarke AMATEURS It’s been only three years since Paul Dunne shared the 54-hole lead in The Open Championship at St. Andrews as an amateur. He’d eventually tumble to T30 with a final-round 78, which isn’t bad, but consider that he didn’t finish inside the top-three alternates. With red numbers in their finales, Jordan Niebrugge (T6), Ashley Chesters (T12) and Ollie Schniederjans (T12) stole the thunder. The aggregate success also was an anomaly. In 2014, 2016 and 2017 combined, only Alfie Plant made the cut at The Open. He finished T62 last year. In the two recent editions of the championship at Carnoustie, only one amateur survived the cut: Rory McIlroy (T42) in 2007. Ranked in order of Rob’s confidence (with World Amateur Golf Ranking; ^ – debutant) ^Nicolai Hojgaard (9) ^Jovan Rebula (55) ^Lin Yuxin (141) ^Sam Locke (439) NOTE: Joaquin Niemann and Doc Redman forfeited exemptions into The Open Championship when each turned pro earlier this year. Neither requalified. Paul Lawrie (back, foot), Bernd Wiesberger (wrist) and John Daly (knee) withdrew due to injuries. You’re unlikely to find someone under the age of 25 who has any memory of the 1999 Open Championship at Carnoustie, so the youngest generation of golf fans can’t comprehend the real-time emotion of Jean Van de Velde’s meltdown on the final hole of regulation. For the rest of us, that still overshadows the fact that Van de Velde, Paul Lawrie and Justin Leonard completed regulation in a whopping 6-over 290. And while Lawrie had help en route to victory, even devotees of the sport might not know that he still owns the PGA TOUR record for the largest come-from-behind win. He was positioned 10 strokes back at the conclusion of 54 holes. There’s no question that Carnoustie’s reputation precedes itself. The scoring average on the par 71 in 1999 was 5.816 over par, which remains the highest in relation to par of all courses since records were first maintained in earnest in 1983. The second-easiest hole that week was the par-3 13th, which averaged 0.029 strokes over par. However, you’re less likely to know that when it returned to host the 2007 Open, it ranked as the easiest major that season at “just” 2.381 strokes over par. Before Padraig Harrington emerged from the playoff with Sergio Garcia in 2007, the duo completed regulation in a more acceptable 7-under 277. That target is in play this week with consistently challenging winds from a prevailing westerly direction. The course will play as expected. Spitting rain can’t be ruled out at any time and daytime high temperatures probably won’t touch 70 degrees, so this is poised to be a textbook Open Championship in terms of conditions. Then there’s the matter of the course itself. It’s as dry as it’s ever been, so it’s going to play long. With strategic bunkering that adds to the premium on club selection, and with only three par 3s, the longest hitters have the advantage. The course tips at 7,402 yards but has just two par 5s. When Harrington won, he found 37 of the 60 fairways (ranking T37) and 47 greens in regulation (T12), but led the field in scrambling in going 19-for-25. A low, boring ball flight combined with the experience and patience of a veteran will likely define this week’s champion. Total prize money of $10.5 million will be distributed of which the winner will receive $1.89 million. In addition to innumerable spoils and a spot cemented into the history of the sport, he’ll also take possession of the Claret Jug, 600 FedExCup points and a five-year PGA TOUR exemption. ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE PGATOUR.COM’s Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton reviews and previews every tournament from numerous angles. Look for his following contributions as scheduled. MONDAY: Rookie Ranking, Qualifiers, Reshuffle, Medical Extensions, Power Rankings (Open Championship) TUESDAY*: Power Rankings (Barbasol), Fantasy Insider, Facebook Live WEDNESDAY: One & Done (Open Championship); One & Done (Barbasol) * – Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO, which also publishes on Tuesdays.
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