Remembering Sergio’s improbable Masters win

2023 Cadence Bank Houston Open, Round 1 (Delayed) Scoring Conditions: Overall: +0.54 strokes per round Morning wave: +1.03 Afternoon wave: +0.04 Current cutline (top 65 and ties): 67 players at 0 or better (T53) Top 3 projected cutline probabilities: 1. 1 over par: 38.9% 2. Even par: 34.2% 3. 2 over par: 14.0% Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Tony Finau (T1, -5, 15.3%) 2. Aaron Wise (T1, -5, 12.7%) 3. Alex Noren (T1, -5, 6.5%) 4. Taylor Pendrith (T5, -4, 6.1%) 5. Keith Mitchell (T5, -4, 5.4%) 6. Scottie Scheffler (T53, E, 4.2%) 7. Wyndham Clark (T5, -4, 3.8%) 8. Maverick McNealy (T13, -3, 3.3%) 9. Denny McCarthy (T13, -3, 2.7%) 10. Mackenzie Hughes (T5, -4, 2.4%) NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Cadence Bank Houston Open, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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  CHARLOTTE, N.C. – It doesn’t take much for Rory McIlroy to contend at the Wells Fargo Championship. Five swings on Wednesday evening did the trick this time. McIlroy, making his first start since a difficult defeat at the Masters, headed to the range after feeling rusty in Wednesday’s pro-am. A quick look at the TrackMan made him realize that his clubface was closed through impact. “It almost feels like I’m trying to hold the clubface square for longer,� McIlroy said. That swing thought worked Thursday. He shot a 3-under 68 that left him one shot off the lead after the morning wave. McIlroy, who’s making his eighth start of the season, is 32nd in the FedExCup after a win in March at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. He hit just four fairways Thursday but still gained strokes off the tee by averaging 325.4 yards on all tee shots. More importantly, he hit 14 greens. And the putting lesson with Brad Faxon is still paying dividends, as McIlroy gained +1.6 strokes on the greens. “I love this place,� said McIlroy, who turns 29 on Friday. “I feel like I don’t have to play that well and I can still get it around.� McIlroy has finished outside the top 10 just once in seven Wells Fargo starts, including two wins. He set a course record in each start, shooting a final-round 62 in 2010 and third-round 61 five years later. Jason Day was on the practice green in 2010 when he watched a frustrated McIlroy walk off the ninth green after making the cut on the number. Two days later, McIlroy was holding the trophy after making 17 birdies and an eagle on the weekend. “He’s explosive in that way,� Day said. “It’s very similar to what Tiger does. He’ll come to a course and he’ll like it so much that he’s very dominant on it. This is a driving golf course. If you’re a good driver, you get the opportunities. He hits it long and straight and obviously he’s putting better.� Quail Hollow lets McIlroy hit a lot of mid- and long-irons and swing aggressively off the tee. The towering trees that frame the fairways help him envision the proper shot. When asked if it reminded him of Augusta National, McIlroy laughed and said, “I’ve just won here a couple times. That’s about the difference.� Of course, McIlroy needs a Masters win to complete the career Grand Slam. This year’s edition was his closest call at Augusta National since he completed the other three legs. A third-round 65 put him in the final group with Patrick Reed, but even during that remarkable round McIlroy could tell his game was not in top shape. “I was sort of holding it together,� he said. And it fell apart under the Sunday pressure. He shot a final-round 74 to fall into fifth place. He spent the week after Augusta National binge-watching television shows (Billions), reading books (The Chimp Paradox, Essentialism) and drinking wine. “Erica had to drag me out of the house,� he said. “Once I got back in my routine, I was fine.� He confirmed that Thursday. He’s back to his old ways at the Wells Fargo Championship.  

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