After what has been a remarkable comeback season, our model estimates Woods has a 23 percent chance of finally re-entering the winner’s circle on Sunday afternoon. Rose, who had the 2nd highest pre-tournament win probability, has slightly better odds at 27 percent. Of course there is more than one trophy at stake this week as the season-long race for the FedExCup comes to a close. Here are the top-10 FedExCup win probabilities heading into the weekend: Rose is the heavy favorite to win the FedExCup at 63 percent. He began the week in one of the coveted top 5 spots, meaning a win this week will secure the title. In addition, many of the other top contenders have struggled thus far which has boosted Rose’s win probability even more. Hope is not lost for the rest of the field, including co-leader Tiger Woods, who still has a 4.3 percent chance of becoming the FedExCup champion. Bryson Dechambeau, who began the week in pole position (and the best chance to win the FedExCup according to our model) is 6 over par and tied for 27th, leaving him with just a 2.4 percent chance of winning the season-long race. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of The TOUR Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page. At the halfway point of the TOUR Championship, Justin Rose and Tiger Woods find themselves two strokes clear of the field at 7 under par. Here are the top-10 win probabilities according to our model:
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