Quick look at the Valero Texas Open

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FedExCup Playoff spots go on the line this week at the Wyndham Championship and if you want success at Sedgefield Country Club you better be ready to go low. The ability to make birdies in bunches is critical when you look at the statistical history of the event and this new column, splintered off from Horses For Courses, will focus on the key statistics to success and the players who have them in their locker to compete and win this week The Par-70 of Sedgefield Country Club plays only 7,131 yards and has historically produced a shootout. Let’s take a look at what we know and who is likely to contend. Five Key Statistics Only players listed are competing this week; click stat headline for a full list of players. Rounds in the 60s Last season was the first in SIX YEARS that the tournament scoring record wasn’t tied or under threat with the winner posting 21 or 22 under from 2016-2020 but there’s still no time to figure it out. Even though last year’s winning total was only 15-under, 34 players still managed to post 10-under or lower. The worst total of players posting 10-under or lower is 2017 when the number was just 27. The halcyon days of 2019 saw 47 players hit that mark for the week. Strokes Gained: Approach the Green Defending champion Kevin Kisner (12th) was the first champ since Davis Love III in 2015 (12th) to not finish in the top 10 of this key stat. In fact all winners during this time frame came in fourth or better. I’ll point out that the other five guys in the playoff last year ranked second, third, fifth, 10th and 26th. More rules than exceptions! Par-5 Scoring Not picking on last year’s champ but Kisner is the only winner to not finish in the top 10 in this category. He was T11! The point stands as the Par-5 holes here are some of the easiest on TOUR and must be attacked and taken advantage of over four rounds to push that 20-under magical mark for contention. Putting: Birdie or Better Conversion Percentage Probably should have stuck this right underneath Strokes Gained: Approach the Green! I’m not breaking any news here that the key to contending and winning a shootout is to hit as many GIR as possible and hole as many putts for birdie as allowed. Recent winners all hover in and around the top 12 with the exception of J.T. Poston. He decided to lead the field in GIR so expecting him to hole everything is a bit silly. But he didn’t make a bogey all week so the putter was still pretty effective! Interestingly Keith Mitchell comes up in three of the four traditional stats categories as a leader this season. He is at +5000 with BetMGM to win the tournament, +1000 for a Top 5, +450 for a Top 10 and +200 for a Top 20. Russell Henley and Harold Varner III also find their place highlighted more than once… Henley is +2200 to win while Varner III is +4000. Odds were sourced on Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2022. For live odds, visit BetMGM. The Bubble Boys One statistic not rooted as much in the golf clubs themselves is the trend of players making their way into the FedExCup Playoffs at the expense of others in a last-ditch push. The excitement of watching the points shuffle shot by shot is great for television but not so much for organizing lineups, fantasy and gaming. Since the points structure changed in 2009, an average of over 2.5 players per year have entered the final week of the FedExCup Regular Season outside the top 125 in the FedExCup standings and gone on to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs. Three players did so last year. This is what we know. What we don’t know is who is or isn’t going to move into the top 125 this season. The last chance saloon applies to all in the field but below are the players on the outside of the FedExCup Playoffs and Eligibility Points List and the minimum finish they need at Wyndham for a chance to move through. Which two / three players would you bank on? If you like Max McGreevy for example, currently one spot outside the mark, you can get +550 from BetMGM for a Top-40 this week. McGreevy enters Wyndham knowing he needs to be inside the top 46 at the bare minimum to have a chance to advance. Others: Top-seven finish: Garrick Higgo, Brice Garnett, Henrik Norlander Top-six finish: Jonathan Byrd Top-five finish: Austin Cook Top-four finish: Charley Hoffman, Ben Martin, Bill Haas, Andrew Landry, Ryan Armour, Satoshi Kodaira Top-three finish: Dylan Wu, Chase Seiffert, Paul Barjon, Cameron Percy, Luke Donald, Sung Kang, Joseph Bramlett, Scott Gutschewski, Seth Reeves, Roger Sloan, William McGirt, Vaughn Taylor, Ben Kohles, Kevin Chappell, Curtis Thompson, Camilo Villegas, Jim Knous Top-two finish: Richy Werenski, Brandon Hagy, Tommy Gainey, Scott Brown, Aaron Baddeley, David Skinns, Harris English, Ryan Moore, Brian Gay, Wesley Bryan, Bo Hoag, David Lingmerth, Robert Garrigus, Jared Wolfe, Dawie van der Walt, Jim Herman, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Bo Van Pelt, Jason Dufner, Joshua Creel, Chris Stroud, Ricky Barnes, Brett Drewitt Win: Davis Love III

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HILTON HEAD, S.C. – Webb Simpson’s reaction was just like the rest of ours. He was stunned when he saw Bryson DeChambeau 2.0 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. “I put my hands on his shoulders last week, just because he looks like a different person,â€� Simpson said. RELATED: Analyzing bulked-up Bryson’s big drives DeChambeau came off the COVID-19 break about 40 pounds heavier. But he certainly wasn’t sitting on the sofa eating junk food during the hiatus. He was working out, downing five protein shakes a day and transforming his body into one that would make an NFL linebacker proud. Thank goodness Puma had some extra XL shirts on hand. At Colonial Country Club, DeChambeau averaged 340.4 yards off the tee and tied for third, missing a putt on the 18th that would have put him in a playoff. He now leads the PGA TOUR in driving distance at 323.8 – which leaves him on pace to snap the highest single-season total in history. “It’s really impressive to be able to change your body that fast and put on that — you know, that much weight and still not have it affect your game in a negative way,â€� Simpson said. “… I mean, he was tearing apart Colonial in terms of distance and still hitting it really straight. “So, a lot of props to Bryson for being able to do that and letting his body handle it.â€� Not everyone sees the weight gain – DeChambeau expects to settle in at 230 pounds now that the TOUR has resumed play – and power surge as sustainable, though. He says his spin rate is now in the 4,000 range, and the man they call the Mad Scientist has had to deloft all his irons. World No. 1 Rory McIlroy saw the transformation up close and personal when he played with DeChambeau on Sunday. The SMU grad hit several drives that afternoon that left the Northern Irishman and his caddie stunned – like the one into the wind on the 11th hole that flew McIlroy’s own lengthy poke by an estimated 40 yards. “It was nuts. It’s unbelievable,â€� he said. “I mean, it’s impressive what he’s doing. There’s going to be courses where it works, and there’s going to be courses where it won’t. I can’t see him hitting that many drivers this week, for example.â€� Whatever happens at Harbour Town, the tight Pete Dye layout, during the RBC Heritage, don’t expect McIlroy to start the same kind of fitness regimen. He says he feels more supple and has more speed when he is lighter. As for DeChambeau, well, more power to him. “Look, it’s impressive,â€� McIlroy said. “He’s big. He’s sort of gone down a path, and he’s …. got a conviction, and he’s following it. That’s what he’s done. He’s always thought outside the box and thought a little differently to most people. “He’s really put his mind at wanting to get longer, and he’s definitely done that.â€� Rickie Fowler appears to be of the same mindset. He spent the first month of the three-month break working out six days a week. During those sessions, he often used a weight vest that clocks in at 45 or 50 pounds – and he says he wouldn’t want to carry that much extra weight around all day long. “Just walking a golf course with that extra weight, let alone doing some workout at the house, that’s enough for 45 minutes to an hour,â€� Fowler said. “It’s been really impressive to see what he’s done over, say, the last year or so with his transformation and obviously some serious gain in speed and power. “But it will be interesting to see kind of … where the peak is. Where does it become almost counterproductive as far as like too much speed, where dispersion becomes too great?â€� Simpson joked that he’d probably put on 75 pounds if it meant he could add 20 mph in ball speed. He has tried to get stronger in recent years and has seen some more modest gains. “But our games are different,â€� Simpson said. “I have to rely on shot making, distance control, more than Bryson. He was already long before he did all this. I’ve never really been long. “So, I’ve got to go about it, I think, in a more methodical way than he’s doing. Yeah, it definitely makes me think it’s possible. We’ll see. He thinks he can get stronger. So, time will tell.â€� Jim Furyk, the two-time RBC Heritage champ who recently turned 50, also plays a game predicated on accuracy rather than length. But that doesn’t mean he’s not intrigued by the game’s power players like the beefed-up DeChambeau. “I think what he’s doing is really interesting, to be honest with you,â€� Furyk says. “… I only saw him hit one shot on TV last week. It was, I think, on the second day off the first tee. I think his ball speed was 185. The player that hit right in front of him was Dustin Johnson, and his ball speed was 177. “So, for me, that was kind of an eye-raiser. Dustin is pretty big, pretty strong, athletic, hits it pretty far. If you’re gaining 8 miles an hour on Dustin Johnson, that’s moving it. “It’s interesting. I think we’re in an era right now with golf, the way it’s played, the way our golf courses are set up, it’s quite an advantage to be able to hit the ball far like that. I can see why so many guys are kind of chasing distance, using technology, using launch monitors for launch and spin for equipment to gain distance. “It’s definitely affecting the game.â€�

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