Quick look at the TOUR Championship

Everyone wants to be the front-runner, but the Masters lays out so many sensational choices that this is the most dangerous week of the season pre-FedExCup Playoffs to be the target. Concluding the season’s first major in the same position often feels more like an escape than the achievement that it is.  With that confidence-building pep talk for the rest of us setting the framework for our decision at Augusta National, this is also the time of the season when you should first take stock of who’s left on your board for the long haul.  My process is simple. I literally print out the top 50 of the latest Official World Golf Ranking, and then cross off everyone I’ve burned. In theory, only those inside this bubble will build my short list to carry me through an entire season of 48 tournaments. Of course, it never works out that way due to field construction and a handful of PGA TOUR non-members on it. Through the first 22 events, I’ve used only 16 of the current top 50.  From here, and especially for PGA TOUR Fantasy One & Done presented by SERVPRO gamers, you’re going to want to set aside at least three notables for the Playoffs since FedExCup/fantasy points are quadrupled for that series.  What you read next is a little bit of evidence with a mixture of good and bad luck, so take it for what it’s worth.  En route to my league title in 2015-16, I reserved Justin Rose, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth for the first, third and fourth events of the Playoffs, respectively, and still won despite a T31, T42 and T17 from those cornerstone investments. (Emiliano Grillo’s T33 at TPC Boston didn’t help much, either.) So, despite that patience, including the planned stymie with Spieth as the anchor, and no top 30s in the seven tournaments immediately preceding the TOUR Championship, I crawled to the finish line. It was a painfully ugly win, but it was also a lesson learned – build for now and later.  Once you’ve determined who’s still available from the top 50, highlight the notables who you can’t imagine going an entire season without using. Once you’ve done that, assign locked-in locations for the obvious. I’ve always advised setting Sergio Garcia aside for THE PLAYERS or The Open Championship because no one owns a more consistently strong record at both crapshoots than the defending champion of this week’s Masters. Weave in his continuously superb play just about everywhere and you’ll appreciate that confidence entering either tournament.  In this space a week ago, I proclaimed the probability that Rose would be my pick for the Masters. After going through the aforementioned process, I’ve changed my mind. Given my position (of power) in pursuit, I’m going with the modern-age horse for the course – Spieth. Rose could fill in the blank that Garcia doesn’t later.  I’m left with McIlroy, Jason Day and Henrik Stenson atop my list of probables for the Playoffs (with the backburner thought of the Ryder Cup tugging at the Euros), while Rickie Fowler still figures to size up as a strong contender in the majors. And I’ll still have the likes of Matt Kuchar, Patrick Reed, Louis Oosthuizen, Bubba Watson, Tommy Fleetwood, Branden Grace and Kevin Chappell at my disposal. And who knows, there’s plenty of time for Brooks Koepka to crash the conversation.  So as not to swerve around the focus of the Masters entirely, it’s one of those weeks when you really don’t even need my approval. It’s chalk city straight from the Power Rankings. In fact, the more valuable analysis is to fire away with brief parenthetical phrases to describe my concern on some you might be considering and shouldn’t. All can be found in QUESTION MARKS in the Power Rankings:  • Jason Dufner (track record)  • Tommy Fleetwood (inexperience)  • Martin Kaymer (track record and right wrist)  • Francesco Molinari (track record)  For two-man gamers eyeing Fred Couples, shop elsewhere. After opening the PGA TOUR Champions season with a T6 at Hualalai, his chronically sore back prevented him from defending his title at the Chubb Classic and teeing it up at the Toshiba Classic down the street from his residence in Newport Beach, California. I slotted him 20th in last year’s Power Rankings and got railed for it. He then finished T18. You know I wasn’t surprised, but I will be if he’s a factor this year FUTURE POSSIBILITIES  NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2017-18. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple sites are listed (e.g. 1 for strongest, 2 for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change all season no matter how many tournament remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment.  Daniel Berger … St. Jude (1; two-time defending); Travelers (2)  Paul Casey … Masters (1); Travelers (4); WGC-Bridgestone (5); Dell Technologies (2); TOUR Championship (3)  Kevin Chappell … Valero (1; defending); St. Jude (5); WGC-Bridgestone (2); Dell Technologies (3)  Jason Day … Masters (4); PLAYERS (13); U.S. Open (2); Canadian (11); WGC-Bridgestone (9); PGA Championship (1); THE NORTHERN TRUST (8); Dell Technologies (5)  Jason Dufner … Fort Worth (2); Memorial (3; defending); U.S. Open (4); Wyndham (6); TOUR Championship (7)  Tony Finau … Valero (5); Memorial (3); Greenbrier (2); Canadian (4)  Rickie Fowler … Masters (8); Wells Fargo (7); PLAYERS (9); WGC-Bridgestone (3); THE NORTHERN TRUST (10); Dell Technologies (6)  Sergio Garcia … Masters (3; defending); PLAYERS (5); Open Championship (1); TOUR Championship (4)  Branden Grace … Heritage (1); Valero (2); U.S. Open (4); WGC-Bridgestone (3)  Brian Harman … Fort Worth (4); John Deere (3)  Russell Henley … Greenbrier (2)  Charley Hoffman … Heritage (7); Houston (5); Valero (1); Fort Worth (4); Travelers (2); Canadian (3)  Billy Horschel … Valero (3); St. Jude (1); TOUR Championship (4)  Dustin Johnson … Masters (4); Memorial (12); St. Jude (8); U.S. Open (13); Canadian (10); WGC-Bridgestone (14); PGA Championship (9); Dell Technologies (11); TOUR Championship (6)  Zach Johnson … Fort Worth (2); John Deere (1); Open Championship (5); WGC-Bridgestone (6); TOUR Championship (8)  Kevin Kisner … Heritage (4); Fort Worth (1; defending); Memorial (5); Wyndham (6)  Matt Kuchar … Masters (5); Heritage (1); Valero (10); PLAYERS (11); Fort Worth (6); Memorial (2); Canadian (3); WGC-Bridgestone (7); THE NORTHERN TRUST (9)  Marc Leishman … Fort Worth (7); Memorial (5); Travelers (2); Open Championship (1)  Hideki Matsuyama … Masters (5); Wells Fargo (13); PLAYERS (9); Memorial (10); U.S. Open (6); WGC-Bridgestone (8; defending)  Rory McIlroy … Masters (2); Wells Fargo (1); PLAYERS (8); Memorial (9); Open Championship (4); WGC-Bridgestone (7); Dell Technologies (5); TOUR Championship (3)  Phil Mickelson … Masters (4); Wells Fargo (2); St. Jude (1); Open Championship (5)  Francesco Molinari … PLAYERS (2)  Ryan Moore … Masters (8); Travelers (2); John Deere (3); TOUR Championship (6)  Louis Oosthuizen … Masters (2); U.S. Open (5); PGA Championship (4); Dell Technologies (3)  Pat Perez … Heritage (5); Valero (7)  Patrick Reed … Travelers (5); PGA Championship (8); Wyndham (7); THE NORTHERN TRUST (9); Dell Technologies (2)  Justin Rose … Masters (1); Wells Fargo (4); PLAYERS (9); Memorial (6); Open Championship (8); WGC-Bridgestone (7); TOUR Championship (2)  Charl Schwartzel … Memorial (4); U.S. Open (5); Open Championship (6); WGC-Bridgestone (2)  Adam Scott … Masters (4); PLAYERS (5); U.S. Open (10); Open Championship (8); WGC-Bridgestone (3); Dell Technologies (9); TOUR Championship (6)  Webb Simpson … Wells Fargo (7); Fort Worth (4); Travelers (8); Greenbrier (5); Wyndham (1)  Jordan Spieth … Masters (1); Heritage (12); Fort Worth (2); Travelers (6; defending); John Deere (7); Open Championship (9; defending); WGC-Bridgestone (10); TOUR Championship (4)  Brendan Steele … Valero (6); Wells Fargo (7); Travelers (3)  Henrik Stenson … Open Championship (6); WGC-Bridgestone (4); PGA Championship (7); Wyndham (8; defending); Dell Technologies (9); TOUR Championship (2)  Justin Thomas … Wells Fargo (9); Dell Technologies (6; defending); TOUR Championship (3) Jimmy Walker … Valero (6); Greenbrier (8); Dell Technologies (7)  Bubba Watson … Memorial (6); Travelers (5); Greenbrier (8); WGC-Bridgestone (1); TOUR Championship (4)  Gary Woodland … Wells Fargo (5); Barracuda (1); Dell Technologies (3)  Tiger Woods … Masters (2); WGC-Bridgestone (3)

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2021 The American Express, Round 2 Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Sungjae Im (1, -11, 20.7%) 2. Tony Finau (T2, -10, 16.2%) 3. Abraham Ancer (T2, -10, 12.5%) 4. Si Woo Kim (T2, -10, 8.3%) 5. Nick Taylor (T2, -10, 5.4%) 6. Emiliano Grillo (T7, -9, 4.0%) 7. Doug Ghim (T7, -9, 3.0%) 8. Brian Harman (T10, -8, 2.9%) 9. Brandon Hagy (T2, -10, 2.4%) 10. John Huh (T10, -8, 1.8%) Top Strokes-Gained Performers from Round 2: Putting: Sungjae Im +4.2 Around the Green: Brian Gay +2.4 Approach the Green: Scott Stallings +3.2 Off-the-tee: Luke List +1.7 Total: Sungjae Im +6.0 NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live "Make Cut", "Top 20", "Top 5", and "Win" probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of The American Express, or to see how each golfer's probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model's home page.

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