Power Rankings: PGA Championship

It’s no secret why Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson are favored to beat Rickie Fowler and rookie Matthew Wolff at the TaylorMade Driving Relief charity match at Seminole Golf Club. Just look to the long game. Shorter approach shots, the ability to blast through the wind, the intimidation factor – power has many built-in advantages, even if Seminole isn’t overly long at 6,836 yards. McIlroy and Johnson, who have 38 PGA TOUR victories between them, have had a virtual lock on the Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee statistic over the last four years, with McIlroy finishing No. 1 in 2019 and ’16, and Johnson in 2018 and ’17. RELATED: Fans at home will be able to contribute to TaylorMade Driving Relief’s COVID-19 relief efforts thanks to PGA TOUR Charities’ online and Text-To-Give donation platforms powered by GoFundMe Charity. Click here to donate. MORE: TaylorMade Driving Relief to benefit COVID-19 relief efforts | How it works | How to watch | Power Rankings | Expert Picks | Live golf set to return | Seminole Golf Club ready for its close-up | Key clubs: Fowler’s irons | How Hogan put Seminole on the map | Similarities run deep for Fowler, Wolff In fact, their dominance in that category essentially spans an entire decade. From 2010-19, McIlroy ranked first in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee three times, was second twice (and would’ve been second two other times had he met the minimum number of rounds played) and was sixth three times. Meanwhile, Johnson also ranked first three times, second three other times and inside the top 6 on three other occasions. Their success – 38 combined PGA TOUR wins – and improved statistical metrics over that last decade have disproved the old chestnut “Drive for Show, Putt for Dough.â€� Eight of the top 12 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee last season (including McIlroy and Johnson) qualified for the 30-man TOUR Championship. Just two of the top 12 in Strokes Gained: Putting did so. “I think we’ve both gotta be up there in top drivers of the golf ball right now,â€� Johnson said when asked about his partner in a conference call with reporters Thursday. “He’s a great driver of the ball; he hits it long, he hits it straight. When we do these competitions at the TaylorMade shoots, we’re usually within a couple yards in terms of distance.â€� Added Fowler: “I won’t argue with DJ; he’s one of the best drivers of the golf ball in the game.â€� Anecdotally, the importance of SG: Off-the-Tee is best illustrated by Johnson’s win over Jordan Spieth on the watery first extra hole at THE NORTHERN TRUST in 2017. With a helping wind, Spieth hit what he thought was a pretty good poke 314 yards down the fairway. Johnson took a much more aggressive line and covered the lake with a 341-yard beauty, leaving himself just a lob wedge for his second shot, which he hit to four feet for an easy birdie. Game over. “When he lined up over there,â€� Spieth said after the round, “and hit the drive, I was — at that point, I have to try and make par best I can, and I’m just hoping; I’m at such a disadvantage.â€� (Spieth needed a 7-iron to reach the green, and his approach wound up 25 feet from the pin.) Asked about Johnson’s power, even McIlroy admitted this week, “I do marvel at it … every time I see him on TOUR I say, ‘Don’t get drawn into a driving competition.’â€� Not that McIlroy can’t hold his own. He drove the green at the 412-yard 12th hole at the (7,500 feet elevation) World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship in February, a tee shot that Golf Digest called “one of the most memorable of all big-time drives.â€� What’s more, while winning three times on the way to the FedExCup last season, McIlroy hit a TOUR-leading 58.6 percent of all drives over 300 yards. He hit 57 drives 320-plus in the FedExCup Playoffs alone. Mark Broadie, the Columbia Business School professor and pioneer of Strokes Gained analytics, called him the clear No. 1 among the straightest long-hitters. “Rory’s combination of distance and accuracy gives him a massive five-stroke head start in each event he plays,â€� Broadie wrote for golf.com, “and it’s what makes him hands down the most deadly bomber out there.â€� And longer driving, Broadie has proven, trumps increased accuracy. Reached by phone for his take on the upcoming match, Broadie said he likes McIlroy and Johnson for more than just their superior and crowd-pleasing driving. “I look for Strokes Gained: Total,â€� he said, “and they are about a stroke better than Rickie and Wolff, which is significant, but it’s skins, which makes it a bit more random or unpredictable.â€� In addition to carryovers in the better-ball four-ball format, the cozier venue (on only 140 acres) could also potentially lessen a power advantage. Bethpage Black it isn’t. Indeed, McIlroy had barely finished praising Johnson’s power when he added: “For us though, Seminole isn’t that kind of golf course.â€� Even if it’s a second-shot course, Broadie still gives McIlroy the nod. “I have him No. 1 in approach shots in 2020, No. 6 in 2019,â€� Broadie says. “He’s just better than the other three in approach shots. If there are going to be some holes where the driver is taken out of their hands, then approach shots become a little bit more important.â€� Is there any facet of the game that favors the underdogs? “Rickie Fowler has an advantage as far as putting goes,â€� Broadie says. One more potentially interesting wrinkle: Team Rory/DJ are not first and second in SG: Off the tee this season. McIlroy was sixth when the season was suspended after the first round of THE PLAYERS Championship in March, and Wolff was next best at 11th. Johnson, returning from knee surgery, was at 27th, and Fowler was 63rd. How important is power? Brendon Todd, a two-time winner this season, said last week, “If you’re going to be 20-win guy with a handful of majors, distance is very important. … But to win once a year, to be competitive, you don’t have to be a bomber.â€� What you need, he added, is a great short game. In other words, you’d like Team Rory/DJ over the long haul, perhaps at a four-round tournamentlike the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, which they’d talked about entering together. Over 18 holes, though, in a quirky skins format, on a little-known but reportedly smallish course? You’d still have to give them the edge, but perhaps not quite as much of one. DECADE OF DOMINANCE Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson have dominated the Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee statistical category the previous decade. Here is how they ranked each season from 2010-19. *Unofficial ranking; did not meet minimum number of rounds

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GREENSBORO, N.C. – K.J. Choi was drenched in sweat after a marathon session on the driving range at the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club on Monday. The range soon filled up with the heavily sponsored (Australian Ryan Ruffels) and the sponsorless (Brian Davis). There were PGA TOUR winners like Smylie Kaufman, who’d been trading texts with pal and PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas; three-time major champion Padraig Harrington; Chad Campbell; Vaughn Taylor; Andres Gonzales; Jason Bohn; and others. It was an unusually busy place for a Monday, and for good reason. Players who are south of the all-important line of demarcation on TOUR, the top 125 in the FedExCup, still have time for one last push. With a solid showing at the Wyndham, they could crack the top 125 and make it to the FedExCup playoffs lid-lifter, THE NORTHERN TRUST next week. Without it—well, it’s hello, Web.com Finals and/or time for some serious soul-searching. “It’s been one of those years, man,� said Kaufman, who at 135 in the FedExCup will have to play his way to New York next week. “I wish I could’ve done a lot of things different. If this week goes well, fine; if not, I’ll be ready and rested for the fall. But if I have a good week this week, who knows, I could be in the TOUR Championship before you know it.� At least Kaufman has job security. He won the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open last season, so he’s exempt on TOUR through the end of 2017-’18. Still, he has said it would be “inexcusable� to miss the playoffs this year, so he’s making his first start as a pro at Sedgefield. Crack the top 125 and players will not only earn a berth in the playoffs, they’ll remain fully exempt on TOUR next season (if they’re not already). Finish this week ranked Nos. 126-150 and they’ll be conditionally exempt. Nos. 126-200 in FedExCup points get into the four-week Web.com Tour Finals, starting with the Nationwide Children’s Championship, Aug. 31. Sam Saunders (127) dedicated a plaque in remembrance of his late grandfather Arnold Palmer at Sedgefield on Tuesday afternoon, then hung around to speak to the media in part about his own game. Saunders needs a good finish here, and he has reason for optimism. He finished T14 at the 2015 Wyndham, and enjoyed a much-needed break last week after a solid eighth-place finish at the Barracuda Championship in Reno—his sixth tournament in a row. “The game’s good,� he said. The 30-year-old from Atlantic Beach, Florida, knows how important it is to move up a few spots this week. Ultimately, though, he admits he has loftier aspirations. “These past few weeks, I’ve really been putting myself in position to where I can win a tournament,� Saunders said of the Barracuda and the RBC Canadian Open (T19) before that. Careers hang in the balance every week, but at the Wyndham that’s especially apparent. Kyle Stanley, who with Shawn Stefani was one of two who pushed into the top 125 at the Wyndham last year, kept going and got his first win since 2012 at the Quicken Loans National in July. The occasion saw Stanley openly weeping at his return to the TOUR’s upper echelon. Five fought their way into the playoffs at the Wyndham two years ago, just one did so in 2014, and no one achieved the feat in 2013. In the history of the FedExCup, no one outside the top 125 at the start of the Wyndham has made it all the way to the TOUR Championship. As usual, there are some big names among those on the outside looking in—or barely hanging on—this week at Sedgefield C.C., a Donald Ross track that dates to 1925. The Bubble Boy at 125 is Geoff Ogilvy, who won the 2006 U.S. Open but at 40 is using a one-time-only exemption (top 50 in career money) to play the TOUR. “I’m not done yet,� he said after his second-round 65 at the Quicken Loans National earlier this summer (T13). Ogilvy will be an assistant to International captain Nick Price at the biennial Presidents Cup at Liberty National, Sept. 28-Oct. 1, but to his point, he certainly doesn’t look done as a player himself. What’s more, he sounds far from worried going into this week. “Worst case scenario; finishing 126th or 127th is usually good for 13 or 14 events next year, as well as a few [sponsor’s] invites I can probably get,� Ogilvy told the Australian AP. Daniel Summerhays (124) was in contention to win the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide, but shot a final-round 78 to finish T10. “I will be back,� he said. And he was. The affable Utahan Summerhays gave himself a chance at the Quicken Loans, only to falter again, this time shooting a final-round 74 to finish T17. Now he’s here at the Wyndham. Spencer Levin, T5 at the Quicken Loans, is also here, looking to move up from 159th. Ben Crane, a 54-hole co-leader at the FedEx St. Jude Classic, faded with a final-round 73 to tie for 10th. He comes to North Carolina looking to move up from 147th in the FedExCup. The players who are furthest down the points list have arguably the most on the line this week. Take Arjun Atwal, 44, who can still play on the Asian Tour by virtue of his victory at the 2014 Dubai Open. As a resident of Orlando, he’d rather play in America, but Atwal, who won the 2010 Wyndham as a Monday qualifier, has little so little status on TOUR he has had to rely on Monday-qualifying (FedEx St. Jude Classic) and sponsor invites (Quicken) this season. “It’s been hard to get into any kind of rhythm,� Atwal said at the Quicken, where he got off to a rousing start but ultimately faded to a T55 finish with rounds of 68-67-75-77. Languishing at 225th in the FedExCup, he would help his career immensely just by moving into the top 200. So would the highly touted Australian teen-ager Ruffels.  There are a handful of major winners in the Wyndham field: Hall of Famer Ernie Els (213) and fellow South African Retief Goosen (161) join Harrington (199), Monday qualifier Y.E. Yang (217), Graeme McDowell (131) and of course Ogilvy (125). Kaufman wouldn’t mind joining that group, but knows he’s got to get going if he wants to join major talents like them and spring break pals Spieth and Thomas. And so—Sedgefield. “I played in two FootJoy Invitationals here, junior events,� Kaufman said. “I finished probably around 20th both times, so not bad. Last time I was here, I was having college coaches watch me, so this will be a little different. I about killed the North Carolina coach, I remember. I hit a snap-hook off the tee.� Kaufman laughed. “He didn’t offer me a scholarship.� Amid the tense atmosphere at the Wyndham, such levity will be rare.

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