Power Rankings: Fantasy golf advice for the PGA Championship

In the modern era, five golfers have achieved the career grand slam. As in only five. You can count them on one hand. Yet, when Jordan Spieth sets out on his second quest to become the sixth at this week’s PGA Championship, he wouldn’t be the first to complete the task at Bellerive Country Club, site of the 100th edition of the season’s final major. One year after Spieth, who turned 25 on July 27, failed to become the youngest career grand-slam champion – Tiger Woods set the record at the 2000 Open Championship when he prevailed at 24 years of age  – he can join Gary Player, who secured his grand slam at Bellerive in 1965 when the current site was the youngest host of the U.S. Open just five years after it opened. Even though Bellerive hosted the 2008 BMW Championship – that debut of Rees Jones’ modernization of his father’s original build was the first attempt to host PGA TOUR competition since the 2001 World Golf Championships event on the course was canceled because it was scheduled to begin two days after the tragedies of September 11 – the 12 in that field who are scheduled to play this week should get a proper chance to play the course as it’s intended to challenge. For an explanation as to why, what should be expected and much more, scroll past the special full-field ranking. In the bull’s-eye of the best kind of converging trends as the defending champion and winner at Firestone where he ranked third in total driving, T2 in greens hit and first in proximity. Corrected course after a missed cut at Glen Abbey. Fifth at Firestone while co-leading the field in distance of all drives and ranking first outright in strokes gained: tee-to-green, GIR and par-5 scoring. Back-door T3 at the WGC-Bridgestone joins wins at TPC Southwind and Glen Abbey as well as a solo third at Shinnecock Hills in his last five starts. Five top 15s in eight starts in the PGA. While he sat out the WGC-Bridgestone with back spasms, ongoing discomfort didn’t get in the way of him winning the gold medal in Rio two years ago this week. T2 in last start at Carnoustie. The 2015 champ has five straight top 15s in this tournament. Bellerive also caters to his length, but his stronger weapon is his short game and putting. T12-T17-T10 in last three starts. The two-time PGA champion (2012, 2014) stumbled in challenging late at both Augusta National (T5) and Firestone (T6) this season. That’s the only reason why he’s not slotted higher here. Tied for 10th in last week’s WGC-Bridgestone debut. Top 10s in the first three majors of 2018. Ranks 15th in strokes gained: tee-to-green and 24th in proximity to the hole from the rough. The Open champion and three-time winner in his last seven starts has unfinished business at the PGA where he’s perfect in every edition since his debut in 2009. Placed T2 last year. With a T17-2nd-T12 run in the majors, he’s been a persistent presence. Since The Open, he’s added a T6 in Glen Abbey debut and a T14 at Firestone. Tenth in strokes gained: tee-to-green. With PLAYERS title and top 20s in first three majors, he’d be an instant contender for Player of the Year honors with a win at Bellerive. Sixth in strokes gained: putting and leads TOUR in scrambling. It’d be news if he didn’t have our attention. For as common as it is for all touring pros to struggle putting four rounds together, the focus is sharper on him until he wins his first major. Among the best tee-to-green and with muscle. He’s 19th in distance of all drives and 15th in GIR. Second in proximity in Firestone debut en route to a T6. Four top 15s in last five starts. Fifth straight competition since the Scottish Open. Punctuated the same scheduling last year with a T2 in the PGA Championship. Won Masters in April and finished fourth at the U.S. Open. Always lurking and always dangerous on the biggest stages. Co-runner-up last year at Quail Hollow. Seven top 25s in last 10 starts. Ranks 30th in total driving and T2 in proximity. Balanced attack slides well into the profile of what this tournament almost always rewards. Top 15s in two of last three starts. Also 6-for-7 in the PGA Championship with a pair of top 15s. Missed the cut in the last two majors, but placed fourth at the Masters where length can be more valuable than precision off the tee. Currently 11th on TOUR in strokes gained: tee-to-green. Continues to get the most out of his game. The 42-year-old Brit is 24th in strokes gained: tee-to-green and T17 in proximity. A T10 at Firestone where he opened with 62 was 11th top 25 in last 14 starts. A regular on most leaderboards, he’s recorded only one top 10 in 15 appearances at the PGA Championship (T10, 2016). Ranks ninth in adjusted scoring with 11 top 20s in 15 starts this season. Fulfilled his projection at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational with a T3, his fifth top-12 finish since winning the Italian Open two months ago. Ranked T5 in the all-around at Firestone. A constant threat with five straight top 20s upon arrival, including in both of the last two majors. Ranks 28th in strokes gained: tee-to-green and T6 in proximity. Most comfy on bentgrass. POWER RANKINGS: PGA CHAMPIONSHIP RANK PLAYER COMMENT WILD CARD Jordan Spieth … Lost amid his inconsistency is that he actually has improved about one stroke per tournament in putting in the last two months. In terms of results, the anomaly was a T9 at Carnoustie where ShotLink doesn’t measure performance. It’s impossible for him not to think about achieving the career grand slam at Bellerive, but that sets up as a bonus as he’s “distracted” by working on the X’s and O’s necessary to yield it. In that sense, it’s a challenge within a challenge, and that just might bring out his best. NOTE: The remaining 135 golfers in the field of 156 are segregated as seen below. The groupings include all 12 who competed in the 2008 BMW Championship at Bellerive and all 34 tournament debutants. CHALLENGERS If you’d prefer, label them as the snubs from the Power Rankings. Each could appear and few would argue. Ranked in order of Rob’s confidence (* – former champion; 2008 BMW Championship finish) Alex Noren *Keegan Bradley Tyrrell Hatton *Tiger Woods Kyle Stanley Matt Kuchar Charl Schwartzel Ryan Moore *Phil Mickelson (T17) Bubba Watson (T28) Hideki Matsuyama Xander Schauffele Bryson DeChambeau Henrik Stenson Kevin Na Adam Scott (T50) SLEEPERS Because it’s a major, loosen the restraints as to who qualifies as a Sleeper. Ignore current world ranking, distant victories in majors and recent inclusion in team competition. Ranked in order of Rob’s confidence (* – former champion; ^ – debutant; 2008 BMW Championship finish) Brandt Snedeker Kevin Kisner Gary Woodland Russell Henley Byeong Hun An Branden Grace Russell Knox Chris Kirk Stewart Cink (T60) *Jimmy Walker Thomas Pieters Billy Horschel Anirban Lahiri Brian Harman Ryan Fox *Jason Dufner ^Austin Cook Peter Uihlein ^Justin Harding Andy Sullivan QUESTION MARKS This cuts both ways. For golfers who have yet to scale to a position from which they can disappoint, they remain full of promise. On the other side of the ledger are talents, many of whom household names, who present negatively for any number of reasons. The doubt includes, but is not limited to, form upon arrival, course fit, history in majors, overall career trajectory and relative inexperience in the face of higher expectations. ARROW UP Ranked in order of Rob’s confidence (* – former champion; ^ – debutant; 2008 BMW Championship finish) Si Woo Kim Rafa Cabrera Bello Charles Howell III Charley Hoffman (T60) ^Beau Hossler ^Joaquin Niemann Luke List Kiradech Aphibarnrat Danny Willett ^Paul Dunne Eddie Pepperell Shane Lowry Jamie Lovemark Chris Wood Hao Tong Li Dylan Frittelli Brian Gay (T13) Jason Kokrak ^Julian Suri ^J.J. Spaun Nick Watney ^Ollie Schniederjans Scott Brown ^Andrew Putnam Chris Stroud ^Andrew Landry Yuta Ikeda ^Mike Lorenzo-Vera ^Michael Kim ^Seungsu Han ^Jorge Campillo ^Adrian Otaegui ^Whee Kim ^Shugo Imahira ^Mikko Korhonen Troy Merritt (since winning the Barbasol Championship, had surgery to remove a blood clot in his left arm) *Vijay Singh (T44) *Y.E. Yang ARROW DOWN Ranked in order of Rob’s confidence (* – former champion; ^ – debutant; 2008 BMW Championship finish) Matthew Fitzpatrick Pat Perez Kevin Chappell J.B. Holmes (T33) Emiliano Grillo Brendan Steele Daniel Berger Chesson Hadley Ross Fisher Jhonattan Vegas Cameron Smith Scott Piercy Sergio Garcia (T20) Patton Kizzire James Hahn Brandon Stone Alexander Levy *Martin Kaymer Bill Haas Ted Potter, Jr. Jordan L. Smith *Davis Love III ^Ryuko Tokimatsu *Padraig Harrington (T55) Satoshi Kodaira ^Shubhankar Sharma Jim Furyk (T3) ^Matt Wallace Chez Reavie (T33) ^Yusaku Miyazato Adam Hadwin (withdrew before the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational with a hip injury) *Shaun Micheel *John Daly Thomas Bjørn *Rich Beem DEBUTANTS The last five first-timers who weren’t slotted in a previous grouping are ranked below. Unlike other tournaments and majors, the PGA Championship doesn’t discriminate against the absence of experience. As a point of reference, 11 of the 75 who survived last year’s cut were making their tournament debuts. Jordan L. Smith (T9) and Grayson Murray (T22) led the charge. Notables included Patrick Cantlay (T33), Bryson DeChambeau (T33) and Jon Rahm (T58). Ranked in order of Rob’s confidence Aaron Wise Alexander Björk Ryan Armour Sungjae Im Brice Garnett SENIOR PGA Paul Broadhurst qualified when he won the KitchenAid Senior PGA Championship in late May. The Englishman, who will turn 53 on Aug. 14, missed the cut in the PGA Championship in both of his previous appearances (1997, 2006). He’ll go into the record books as the last automatic qualifier via that senior major before the PGA Championship shifts to May in 2019. Next year’s Senior PGA Championship will be held on May 23-26, the week after the next edition of the PGA Championship. PGA PROFESSIONALS Twenty PGA professionals are included in the field of 156 every year. Their national championship was conducted in June. In the last six editions of the PGA Championship, only Brian Gaffney (71st, 2015) and Omar Uresti (T73, 2017) survived the cut. Uresti is unique in that he also has Veteran Membership on the PGA TOUR, so he collected FedExCup points at last year’s PGA Championship. He’s back again this year. One of the most intriguing qualifiers is Michael Block, who is making his third appearance. With his son, Dylan, on the bag for the first time, Michael wound up advancing to Bellerive via a 9-for-5 playoff. He was raised and went to high school nearby. Ranked in order of Rob’s confidence (@-current PGA TOUR member; %-former PGA TOUR member; # of prior appearances in parentheses) @Omar Uresti (3) Matt Dobyns (4) %Bob Sowards (9) Ryan Vermeer (1) Michael Block (2) David Muttitt (3) Danny Balin (4) %Matt Borchert (0) Johan Kok (3) Jason Schmuhl (1) Sean McCarty (0) Jaysen Hansen (1) %Craig Bowden (0) Marty Jertson (2) Brian Smock (1) Rich Berberian, Jr. (2) Craig Hocknull (0) Zach J. Johnson (0) … Note the inclusion of his middle initial. This is so as not to be confused with two-time major champion Zach Johnson. Ben Kern (0) Shawn Warren (0) NOTE: Graham DeLaet (back surgery), Bernd Wiesberger (wrist) and Lee Westwood (undisclosed) are not competing due to injury. After waiting seven years post-9/11 to host the BMW Championship in 2008, Bellerive’s anticipation extended an additional day due to the impact of Hurricane Gustav. Thanks to the limited field, all four rounds were completed within three days for the traditional Sunday finish that yielded Camilo Villegas’ breakthrough victory in wire-to-wire fashion. However, his winning score of 15-under 265 didn’t reflect the bite the Bellerive had promised. The field of 68 in 2008 averaged 69.371 on the stock par 70. Targets off the tee played wider, thus surrendering more than nine fairways hit per golfer per round. Furthermore, the bentgrass greens, which are quite large but segmented, were also quite receptive as the field averaged nearly 12.5 greens in regulation per round. If you dove further to examine between the lines, the data not only would support those broad strokes, it would reveal even easier opportunities to score. So, it’s not overstating to suggest that even the most patient of golfers and fans finally get to see what makes Bellerive tick. Thankfully, mostly favorable weather conditions are expected throughout the tournament. Warm and muggy St. Louis air will blanket the 7,316-yard layout. Wind won’t be a factor. Not unlike Augusta National Golf Club, most of the holes at Bellerive that bend turn to the left. Only the 597-yard par-5 17th curves to the right. After navigating “The Ridge” – holes 14, 15 and 16 known for primo viewing locations – it’s on the penultimate hole where the field of 156 will want to be in position to prevail. The par-4 18th ranked as the hardest in the 2008 BMW. It tips at 457 yards this week. With unfamiliar greens for most of the field, putting takes a back seat to total driving and proximity to the hole. Because of the size of the surfaces, great putters will have opportunities to shine, but they won’t want to be lining up approaches from three-inch fescue rough that frames most sightlines off tees. Water hazards also are in play on eight of the holes. Put it all together and course management sits atop the list of priorities to capture the Wanamaker Trophy. When the tournament concludes, the shortest turnaround time before the next PGA Championship in a couple of generations will begin. Bethpage State Park’s Black Course will host the next edition on May 16-19, 2019. It will mark the first time since late February of 1971 when the PGA Championship isn’t contested in the summertime. Its move to May means that it will slot as the second major of the 2018-19 season. It’ll be the first time since 1949 that the tournament will be held in the month. ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE PGATOUR.COM’s Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton reviews and previews every tournament from numerous angles. Look for his following contributions as scheduled. MONDAY: Rookie Ranking, Qualifiers, Reshuffle, Medical Extensions, Power Rankings TUESDAY*: Fantasy Insider, Facebook Live WEDNESDAY: One & Done * – Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO, which also publishes on Tuesdays.

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