Pick ‘Em Preview: The Honda Classic

Welcome back to PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live, you seasoned players. Remember, there’s only one, awkward first day of class. Consider yourself settled in. Everything now is familiar. If you’re new here, a plain-old welcome suffices. And relax. Every week is its own competition to win free money. Play as often or as little as you want. You can dive into more of the detail here. PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live enters its second week for The Honda Classic. The field of 144 presents a greater likelihood that a non-winner or a golfer with maybe one title on his résumé will prevail, and the odds powered by PointsBet reflect it. In addition to supporting all six props below, Glass and Rob share valuable feedback about what happened at Riviera last week. Understand that every week possesses a unique set of variables that require patience and understanding of where to respect the dynamics and when it’s sensible to pull levers. Register for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live here. WEEKLONG Outright Glass … Lucas Glover (+6600) As we learned last week, there’s no reason to book favorites this early unless you are completely sold that they will do the business. While not everyone is going to go wire-to-wire like Joaquin Niemann did at Riviera, there is always time on Sunday to latch on and get a piece. I’m riding with an experienced ball-striker who knows when to hit the gas and when to pump the brakes in South Florida. With T21 or better in four of his last five at PGA National, including T4 in 2019, I’ll start my ascent here. Rob … Mito Pereira (+5000) What Glass said. See, we can agree! I authored the lesson in Draws and Fades on Tuesday. And yeah, I’m opening with the expectation that Chilean chums will go back-to-back on the PGA TOUR. Pereira witnessed first-hand what it was like for fellow countryman, Joaquin Niemann, to endure and survive the stress at Riviera. The big difference, at least in our world, is that Niemann was +6600 in that field, while Pereira isn’t that long at PGA National. He’s well above average with most of his bag in his rookie season, so the timely, inspirational bump is the kicker. And although he’s a non-winner, Keith Mitchell (2019) and Sungjae Im (2020) are recent breakthroughs on the Champion Course. Top 10 Rob … Hayden Buckley (+1300) I know that this is aggressive, but that’s the point. One thing we learned last week, other than having and holding a pre-tournament Joaquin Niemann at +6600, the prop for a Top 10 remained locked until after the third round. So, it pays to reach for a calculated flier in this space and still put points on the board in the finale in case it flames out. The rookie sat out the potential for last week’s large payday to rest and get ready for this week’s test where his ball-striking can shine. He also has quite of bit of success on bermuda, so I’m thrilled that his line is as favorable. With a pair of top 10s on the board as a rookie, he’s already unafraid of that airspace. Glass … Ryan Palmer (+540) Don’t let the MC at Riviera bother you as that is not one of his happier hunting grounds. T17 and T4 in his last two visits here will allow me to fly him in under the radar. Also has cashed in eight of his last nine, and I don’t mind a bit of experience this week. Top 20 Glass … Harry Higgs (+425) Made a ton of pars last week at Riviera, which is usually helpful but only good for T55. He returns to a track where he led the field in par-3 and par-5 scoring a year ago plus, and he was No. 1 in Strokes-Gained: Approach the Green. Let’s hope he can add to his T19 with three rounds in the 60s from last year! Rob … Brice Garnett (+750) C.T. Pan’s top 20 at +850 was responsible for more than half of my total points at Riviera, so I’m focusing again on the edge of the lens at PGA National. I really wanted to work in Garnett in some capacity, too. The grass is bermuda, not paspalum on which he’s thrived, but he’s one of the most underrated ball-strikers on the PGA TOUR. That toolbox comes to life on shorter courses and in the wind. Check, check! In the last two editions, he finished T11 (2020) and T25 (2021). Round 1 Leader Glass … Sam Ryder (+10000) Had to get somebody early before you used them all up! With you already investing in Buckley and Garnett, you’re awfully bullish on the first threesome off the 10th tee on Thursday morning! One of the first groups out on the back side, Ryder will get a chance to navigate THE BEAR TRAP (GRRRRRRRRRRRRR) in hopefully the quietest part of the day. Fresh greens, a 63 here in Round 2 last year plus a raucous ace on No. 16 at TPC Scottsdale, can mix into some magic mojo in Round 1. Rob … Mito Pereira (+5000) It’s almost like Glass is reading my notes (as usual). He’s right. The FRL is going to come out of the morning wave and before wind kicks up midday. I’m all-in on tiptoeing through the par 10 before the bear arises for lunch. Of course, there’s the not-so-insignificant expectation for my outright to start strong, but the juiciest part of this is that Ryder and Pereira are in the same threesome. Stakes within the stakes! Make the Cut Rob … Camilo Villegas (-149) Don’t stress too much about this prop. Last week, I snared Francesco Molinari at (-188). Those were the longest odds on the board. He made the cut and yielded 13 coins. If Villegas cashes, he’ll contribute 17 coins, and there are only two longer options available. He’s among the players commuting from home, and he’s among the locals who have won at PGA National (T8). He also finished T8 last year and has a modest three consecutive cuts made upon arrival. Glass … Jhonattan Vegas (-229) I was looking for Jason Dufner who has never MC in 12 appearances. Or Stewart Cink who has cashed 11 straight. I’ll settle on the Venezuelan who has picked up a check in five consecutive appearances and eight of nine. Surely, he was caught up in the wave of South American pride at Riviera and will be excited to join the conversation. Matchup Glass … Billy Horschel (+136) over Patrick Reed and Cameron Young Nobody is hotter than Young, but Horschel didn’t have to fly across country and fight any jetlag as he skipped Riviera. Reed hasn’t played here since 2018 and has MC in his last two visits. I’ll take #FloridaMan over the upstart making his first appearance after a career-tying-best. The letdown is natural. Rob … K.H. Lee (+150) over Ryan Palmer and Henrik Stenson. I was hoping to get Vaughn Taylor in his 3-ball but it didn’t pop up on the boards so I’ll pivot to my top sleeper pick in K.H. Lee. In his last 14 starts, he’s connected for just one top 10 – a T6 at the 3M Open that started the stretch – but he’s missed only one cut (Sanderson Farms) while adding five top 25s on the strength of solid ball-striking and a nice touch around greens. This is his fourth consecutive appearance at PGA National, which forever will be the site of his first-ever top 10 on the circuit, a T7 in 2019. Palmer, a draw from this week’s Draws & Fades presents a challenge for sure but veteran Stenson sits as a fade.

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