Pick ‘Em Preview: Mexico Open at Vidanta

Rob would tell you that it’s not supposed to be this easy, but with yet another top 25, how else would you describe it? Having connected for, count ‘em, four ties in 2-balls in the last two rounds of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, Rob finished 23rd of 4,332. That piles onto a third at The Honda Classic, a 10th at THE PLAYERS Championship and a 19th at the RBC Heritage. Suffice it to say that he’s feeling confident about retaining his card. Yuks aside, the strategy to go all-in on 2-balls is why he’s been so lucky. Yes, he was on board with Sepp Straka at +10000 during R2 of the Honda, and Tommy Fleetwood yielded 2,000 coins as the R1 leader at THE PLAYERS but leveraging the 2-balls has been the primary shortcut to the top. Remember, even landing one is worth six or seven single picks at +100. For more proof, consider that Zurich champions Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele paid out at just +850 for their wire-to-wire win. Four of the top-five finishers in PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live were on board at that rate, but Jherr24 placed second with the tandem at just (-9999). That entry’s faith in the two-man team of Justin Lower and Dylan Wu (T10) for a Top 10 at +425 and a Top 20 at +270 was rewarded, but it also landed four ties on top of a pair of single picks in 2-balls. It bears repeating the advice that with no leagues, the weekly points reset and with prize money reserved for only the top five, swing for the fence on every opportunity. You just might connect. Register for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live here and monitor Rob’s and Glass’ progress as Influencers. For a broader explanation of the format and FAQs, click here. TOURNAMENT TO WIN Rob … Mark Hubbard (+6000) You don’t need me to tell you that it’s Jon Rahm and then everyone else at the Mexico Open at Vidanta. Oh, wait, I just did. Well, if you’re taking the field, then go long or be gone, especially in a format that allows changes. That Hubbard is “only” a 60-to-1 shot gives you an indication of how flat the pricing is in the belly of this beast. However, it’s also respectful given his recent flourish of top-15 finishes across the top-two tiers of PGA TOUR-sanctioned competition. It’s also why he’s featured in my Power Rankings. Glass … Nate Lashley (+9000) Good vibes began on paspalum with his first Korn Ferry Tour victory at Corales in 2017. The vibin’ continued with his first top 10 on TOUR on paspalum in Puerto Rico the following season. This year, his two best paydays are T7 at Puerto Rico and T15 at Corales. Passing on the paspalum player? Preposterous! TOP 10 Rob … Callum Tarren (+1200) Because of the construct of the field and the blank slate of experience on this unfamiliar course, the PointsBet board will be a dizzying array of green and red arrows and boxes more this week than most. What a time to take a flier. The 31-year-old rookie hadn’t made any noise until February. Since, he’s connected for a T5 on the paspalum in Puerto Rico and a pair of top 20s on the KFT. The Brit is long off the tee and fairly precise with his irons, both handy tools on a long track with four par 5s and the mystery of the greens. You’ll find more on him and others in Draws and Fades. Glass … Brian Stuard (+850) Of his last eight on TOUR, five have painted the top 22, including a T7 at a big ball park at Corales. His record at Mayakoba – Greg Norman’s other course in Mexico used for TOUR events – is excellent as well, as he’s No. 10 on the all-time money list. TOP 20 Glass … Andrew Novak (+500) I’ve had to turn my FREE WHEELIN’ WAYS down on this selection because I haven’t been very good at catching the window to make adjustments during tournaments. Gone are the days of +1000 or better bottles full of lightning. Here are the days of measured, LOCKED-IN selections. Novak has three top-25 finishes on the season and they are ALL ON PASPALUM. If he doesn’t get off to a hot start, I’ll have to stand guard for the window to open! Rob … Brian Stuard (+400) As Glass and I compare notes during tournaments, we’ve arrived at his realization above. If the Top 20 unlocked last week, I also missed it, but it’s not the first time. The Top 10 has unlocked, but it’s usually only for a short period of time and very early on the East Coast of the U.S. or very, very late in the west where I live. Anyone have a time share on Oahu to donate to our cause? I’m also concurring with his move toward Stuard, just not as aggressively. Callum Tarren (my Top 10) is at +500 for a Top 20, but again, I may not get the chance to adjust, and that has influenced this decision. I’ll add that Stuard’s success of late also has occurred on paspalum, and that he’s been in a groove since February, so it’s more than just about his fit in these climes and on this grass. ROUND 1 LEADER Glass … Jon Rahm (+1600) Since he’s no longer No. 1 in the world, I’m expecting him to come out of the gate on fire. He starts on the back side as the fourth 3-ball off. The back nine has three par 5s, which should have him licking his chops. Crosswinds can develop later in the day, so I’ll saddle up on fresh greens and likely calmer sea breezes during the morning hours. Rob … Aaron Rai (+5000) See: Glass. Rai goes out in the first threesome off No. 10, so his perspective and conditions will be just a little bit cleaner than Rahm’s on the scorable back side. The Englishman delivered on cue with fellow rookie David Lipsky last week (T4), so he should hit paspalum percolating. Of course, and this never can be overstated, the biggest advantage to getting on a guy at the gun is the power to adjust sooner than anyone else. MAKE THE CUT Rob … Chase Seiffert (-160) The longest odds on the board yield just 16 coins. As has been my narrative throughout this game, I’ll take ’em. Seiffert is one of my Sleepers, so I already have the confidence that he’ll do more than just fulfill this prop. He’s cashed in four straight upon arrival, two of which for a top 25. The kicker is that he’s sticking with only PGA TOUR commitments thus far despite conditional status, so it’s not in his cards to go all-in and leave Banderas Bay without a little booty. Glass … Tyler Duncan (-175) Backed up his T12 at Harbour Town with T14 (and a Top 20 cash for me) last week at Zurich. Quietly rolling along with T35 or better in five of his last six as he continues to paint fairways and greens. 3-BALL Glass … Brendon Todd (+210) over Patrick Reed and Sebastián Muñoz We haven’t seen Reed since the Masters and Munoz since Match Play so I’ll ride the guy who won’t need to worry about shaking off any rust. Todd is 48-under in his last three visits in the last three seasons at Mayakoba. That makes him a horse for a Greg Norman course. Rob … C.T. Pan (+125) over Chez Reavie & Kevin Tway If you haven’t caught on, Glass and I submit our R1 3-balls blind. Due to the tight window in scheduling this conversation – we actually make our selections live with each other on Tuesday nights; it’s a hoot – we guess for which ones PointsBet will have a market on Wednesday. We’ve been decent at it, missing on only a couple of occasions, but for those that stick, it may seem odd that neither of us is taking a risk on what essentially is an inconsequential kickback. So it goes. As I reviewed the tee times for the Mexico Open at Vidanta, it’s evident how many favorites will populate the board, so I figured I’d lean into one likely to land in the middle third of odds for whichever golfer is the favorite. I’m going to assume it’s Pan. I’ve guessed wrong multiple times, so that’s always intriguing given my experience and how I process the action. Whatever the case, Reavie is slumping and Tway has been playing through a wrist injury. NOTE: While Glass and Rob typically stick with their selections as detailed in Pick ‘Em Preview, they are allowed the right to make changes at any time.

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