PGA Tour golf best bets: The American Express

2022 John Deere Classic, Round 2 Top 10 win probabilities: 1. J.T. Poston (1, -15, 45.4%) 2. Denny McCarthy (2, -11, 10.6%) 3. Emiliano Grillo (T3, -10, 5.0%) 4. Maverick McNealy (T7, -9, 3.9%) 5. Chris Gotterup (T3, -10, 3.9%) 6. Matthias Schwab (T3, -10, 3.8%) 7. Scott Stallings (T7, -9, 3.3%) 8. C.T. Pan (T7, -9, 3.2%) 9. Taylor Moore (T7, -9, 1.8%) 10. Vaughn Taylor (T7, -9, 1.7%) Top Strokes-Gained Performers from Round 2: Putting: Kelly Kraft +5.2 Around the Green: Morgan Hoffmann +2.8 Approach the Green: C.T. Pan +3.3 Off-the-tee: Matthias Schwab +2.3 Total: Kelly Kraft +6.1 NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the John Deere Classic, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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HILTON HEAD ISLAND, S.C. – Golf’s original Rory stole the show with a 7-under 64 in the opening round of the RBC Heritage at sun-splashed Harbour Town on Thursday. Rory Sabbatini, a six-time PGA TOUR winner who was lifting trophies long before Rory McIlroy came on the scene, played through back pain and went bogey-free for a two-shot lead. “I hurt my back on Sunday doing something stupid,� said Sabbatini, 42. “I kind of took it easy for the last few days, and was happy to be able to play today. Just trying to simplify everything. Wasn’t trying to hit it hard; just put it in the fairway, find the greens. “… This morning I still wasn’t a hundred percent sure I was going to play today.� John Huh, Billy Horschel, Chesson Hadley and 2014 RBC champion Matt Kuchar all shot 66 and are just two shots back. Hadley was the only player in the top 10 who played in the afternoon. Sabbatini has only missed the FedExCup Playoffs once, in 2016, since the FedExCup era began in 2007. He is 90th in the standings this season, and showed glimpses of his former self with a T5 at the Valspar Championship last month and a T17 at The Honda Classic before that. At the RBC on Thursday, he hit 10 of 14 fairways and 15 of 18 greens, which was where he excelled. He made just over 121 feet of putts, taking a tidy 26 strokes with the flatstick. He also made the longest putt of the day, a birdie effort on 14 that traveled nearly 52 feet before finding the cup. Asked to elaborate on how he’d hurt himself, the leader said, “I was working on my posture and my golf swing, and I was practicing something bad, and I just hurt myself doing it.� He made six birdies in his first 17 holes, then was doing a stretch when he felt his back pop on the tee of the ninth hole, his last of the day. He birdied that one, too. “What I’ve been trying to get it to do all week,� Sabbatini said of his back. “And it kind of released everything for the closure of the last hole.� OBSERVATIONS JOHNSON ENCOURAGED. Dustin Johnson hadn’t played Harbour Town since 2009, when he missed the cut, so his 2-under 69 was a step in the right direction. “The greens are kind of tough to read,� said Johnson, who missed three times inside 10 feet to bogey three of his last five holes. “But it was all right. Pretty pleased with it.� Although he hasn’t won since the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua, Johnson is still the No. 1 player in the world. He is coming off a T10 finish at the Masters, so his game may be trending in the right direction after he went 0-3 and looked out of sorts at the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play. As an RBC brand ambassador, Johnson said he was looking far beyond just making the cut Friday. “I’ll be here for the next few years,� he said, “and excited about it.�   MORNING WAVE HAS ADVANTAGE. Players in the morning wave made up the bulk of the names on the leaderboard. Then there was Chesson Hadley (66, T2), who teed off in the afternoon and wound up only two shots behind the leader. Hadley made just over 112 feet of putts and only one bogey in shooting the best round of the second wave. He was also fourth in strokes gained: putting. “I looked this morning and saw there were some birdies being made,� Hadley said. “I figured there would be. Hopefully we’ll have some soft conditions in the morning [Friday].� Cam Smith, who is coming off consecutive T5 finishes, Xander Schauffele and Si Woo Kim were among the afternoon players who shot 68. Schauffele led the field in strokes gained: putting.   NOTABLES WESLEY BRYAN – The defending champion bogeyed two of his last three holes but still came in with a 69. Better yet, after working on his driving during a five-week break he hit 14 of 14 fairways. DAVIS LOVE III – Five-time winner at Harbour Town, who will turn 54 on Friday, double-bogeyed the third hole on the way to a 73. Son Dru, playing on a sponsor’s exemption, shot 77. LUKE DONALD – Former world No. 1 and five-time runner-up here struggled to a 76. BRANDT SNEDEKER – The 2011 RBC champion opened with a solid 70 as he attempts to find his old form in the wake of a 2017 rib injury. BEAU HOSSLER – Making his first start since a playoff runner-up at the Houston Open, Hossler made a watery double-bogey at the par-3 14th but still shot 1-under 70. JIM FURYK – The two-time RBC champion (2010, 2015) and 17-time PGA TOUR winner got off to yet another solid start at Harbour Town with a 1-under 70. BRYSON DECHAMBEAU – Was six of seven in scrambling to shoot 68.  JOHN HUH – Went out in 6-under 30, but shot 1-over on the back for 66, two off the lead. He was third in the field in strokes gained: putting. QUOTABLES I just show up and play golf, so not too much.Pete Dye and I have gotten along awfully well.I better hit some balls and … try to figure out exactly what is going on.  SUPERLATIVES Low round: 7-under 64 by Rory Sabbatini. Longest drive: 355 yds (Paul Casey/No. 16) Longest putt: 51’ 10� (Rory Sabbatini/No. 14) Toughest hole: The par-3 7th and par-3 14th (3.235) tied for toughest of the day. CALL OF THE DAY

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