PGA Championship: Round 4 Leaderboard, tee times, TV times

Your 54-hole leader or co-leaders at this week’s Barbasol Championship and Open Championship will be asked a lot of questions, many of them predictable. What would it mean to win? What’s going right this week? Think you’ll sleep much? The next day, he/they will wake up and knock around their rental house/hotel room. They’ll eat, watch TV, check the phone. Finally, they will go to the course, and not win. Not if form holds, anyway. Through the John Deere Classic, just nine players have converted a 54-hole lead into a win this season on the PGA TOUR. Two of those, Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth, had done it twice, meaning 11 of 36 tournaments have been won by a third-round leader/co-leader, with 11 remaining on the schedule. This year’s third-round leaders are converting 31% of the time, which is way lower than the gold standard in this category, Tiger Woods (92%). It’s lower, too, than the win-conversion rate for this year’s second-round leaders (16 of 36, 44%), despite second-round leaders being further from the goal line. Depending on what happens from here to the season-ending TOUR Championship at East Lake, Sept. 21-24, this could be the worst season for 54-hole leaders in at least a decade—even worse than 2012 and 2007, when the win-conversion rate was just 16 of 44, or 36%. What exactly is happening here? Here are five theories. THE MARKED MAN PROBLEM Some leads are blown, some are lost. Patrick Rodgers summoned admirable touch under pressure as he barely missed chipping in from behind the 18th green at the John Deere Classic, a chip he had to make. He shot a 1-under 70 to lose to Bryson DeChambeau (65) by one. Rodgers didn’t so much lose as DeChambeau won. “You’ve got to just keep making birdies,â€� says Troy Merritt, who cites the 2015 RBC Heritage, where he shot a final-round 69 only to have his doors blown off by Jim Furyk (63) and Kevin Kisner (64). “Any of the guys out here are very capable of shooting a low number.â€� Steve Stricker has never lost after entering the last round with the solo lead, going seven for seven. (He did finish T3 after taking the lead into the last round of the 90-hole CareerBuilder Challenge in 2009.) And yet even Stricker appreciates how hard it is to close on TOUR. “You go to bed as a marked man,â€� he says. “You kind of feel like you should win, you expect to win, and always the last day there’s a few challenges. The wind will change, or it’s a tougher day. It’s just hard. You’re the guy that everybody is chasing. They can come out free-wheeling and you’re kind of protecting, and it’s hard to protect.â€� But to chase? That’s way more fun. Said Jon Rahm after he came from behind to win the Farmers Insurance Open for his first TOUR victory, in January: “I knew I had to go get it.â€� TOO MUCH TIME TO THINK “How did you sleep last night?â€� NBC’s Bob Costas asked third-round leader Paul Goydos on Sunday morning at THE PLAYERS Championship in 2008. “On my back,â€� Goydos deadpanned. It was a funny line, and Goydos held up well before falling to Sergio Garcia in a sudden-death playoff. Still, you knew what Costas was hinting at. “Fitfully,â€� the leader might’ve said. Justin Thomas shot a 9-under 63 in the third round of the U.S. Open at Erin Hills last month. While not leading—he was one behind Brian Harman—Thomas had commanded so much attention he may as well have been. Then he shot a final-round 75 to tie for ninth. “I’d never teed off this late before,â€� Thomas said, “so that was different. Teeing off at almost 3 o’clock Central Time is just bizarre for me, because I wake up pretty early. So, it was a lot of kind of laying around and just trying to stay off the phone and try to stay away from reading stuff just because there are so many things out there that are being said or written. “I just tried to stay away from it, but, yeah, it was hard to. But I would like to think that’s not why I played how I did today. I just didn’t play well.â€� Sports psychologists tell us to stay in the now, but it’s easier said than done. Sometimes the overactive mind can’t help but race ahead to all those FedExCup points and Presidents/Ryder Cup points on offer, not to mention the mountains of money and accolades and exemptions. “That’s all you think about,â€� Stricker says. “You sit in your room and have breakfast but all you do is think about it—that tee time can’t come quick enough. It’s just a challenge.â€� MICROPHONE FATIGUE In cycling, the wind in the leader’s face is literal. In golf, it’s figurative. There are airwaves to fill and stories to file, which means the leader spends a lot of time yapping. Take David Lingmerth and Sebastian Munoz, who recently led after each of the first three rounds, Lingmerth at the Quicken Loans National and Munoz at The Greenbrier Classic. Each met the media for three straight days to answer various questions, inevitably addressing something he might have rather not addressed: winning. Munoz said he was watching 1980s movies like Ferris Buehler’s Day Off to take his mind off things. Lingmerth, a squat, 29-year-old Swede who had already won the 2015 Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide, seemed to try and psych himself up, saying he didn’t anticipate capturing just a half-dozen tournaments or so in his career. “I envision winning a lot more than that,â€� he said. Not surprisingly, given the tenor of the season, each lost. “It was just a new experience for me,â€� Munoz says. “I had no memories to draw on, so that’s what made it tough. And I got off to a tough start Sunday. But I was proud of how I steadied after that.â€� (Munoz ultimately signed for a final-round 72 to finish T3.) Even players who lead after just one round, the third, often struggle. “What happens is, let’s say a guy shoots 7-under on Saturday and he takes the lead,â€� says Bubba Watson, who is three of 10 at converting third-round leads/co-leads into victories. “But [the media] weren’t talking to him on the first two days. Right? “Well, guess what? Now all the media attention comes, and it puts thoughts in your head: ‘Can you win?’ ‘You haven’t won yet.’ ‘You’ve only won nine; you need to win a 10th.’ ‘You’ve never won a major.’ The media attention makes it worse, but it’s still there.â€� NOT JUST A ROOKIE THING One of the commonly held beliefs about closing is that untested players like Munoz have problems with it, but once they “get over the hump,â€� they’re fine. It’s not true. Zach Johnson admitted he stopped making birdies when he got near the lead at the Deere. Phil Mickelson said he flat-out panicked when he saw his name atop the leaderboard at the FedEx St. Jude Classic, promptly making a triple-bogey to plummet down the board. Consider Martin Kaymer at the 2014 U.S. Open. He already had won one major, and yet Kaymer, who led after every round at Pinehurst No. 2, told his caddie Craig Connelly on the morning of the final round that it would be the toughest 18 holes they’d ever played. Jordan Spieth calls it “chasing the ghostâ€�—the feeling you get when there’s no one ahead of you on the leaderboard. And it’s not easy. Having led after each of the first three rounds at the recent Travelers Championship, Spieth had to fight hard to win. (He holed out from a bunker to beat Daniel Berger in a sudden-death playoff.) The finish was in stark contrast to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February, where he’d held a six-shot lead through 54 holes. “You’ve got to keep resetting goals,â€� Spieth said. You also have to not panic when you’re caught. That’s where the caddie comes in, and Spieth praised his man Michael Greller’s well-timed exhortations at the Travelers. “He’s a closer,â€� Greller said afterward. “And that’s what I kept telling him. ‘Dude, you’re a closer. You know how to close and you’ve got a killer instinct.’â€� He was right. The Travelers marked the 13th time Spieth had led or co-led through three rounds on TOUR, and the eighth time he’d won. He’s converting at a spiffy 62%. ‘IN CONTENTION’ NEEDS REDEFINING A lot can happen in one hole, but 18 of them? Forget it. There are too many variables to anoint anyone the top contender a day or even five hours before the trophy ceremony. That’s why Dr. Morris Pickens, a sports psychologist who works with Zach Johnson, Stewart Cink and others out of the Sea Island (Georgia) Golf Performance Center, believes the entire concept of the 54-hole leader/leaders is grossly overhyped. “You might think that you’re in contention because of the way people talk on TV,â€� Pickens says. “But I tell my guys ‘contention’ doesn’t exist until there are three or four holes left. “Let’s say you’re at THE PLAYERS at TPC Sawgrass,â€� he adds, “and you’re looking at your second shot on 16. That’s when you’d need to take into account where you are in relation to everyone else, but I tell my guys to keep your head down until then.â€� Maybe Pickens is right. How many times have we trained our eyes on the third-round leader/s only to watch everything get turned upside-down Sunday afternoon? The most indelible example: Retief Goosen and Jason Gore played their way into the last group at the 2005 U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2, but shot 81 and 84, respectively. Michael Campbell won. It happens on the other side of the Atlantic, too. Of the last 20 Open Championships, 10 have been won by someone other than the guy/s who held the 54-hole lead and were ushered into the media room to talk about it. Someone other than the guy whose cell phone lights up with messages from his friends and family Saturday night, as if he’s already almost won something. “That’s the way people are raised,â€� Pickens says. “It’s the way tournaments are framed. But it’s the player’s choice if they want to buy into it.â€�

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AUGUSTA, Ga. — They started the week sharing an unexpected — and then highly discussed and over-analyzed — nine-hole practice round. They’ll finish seeking positive vibes and updating course notebooks. The one thing Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson won’t do Sunday afternoon at the Masters is slip on another Green Jacket. Their performances in the first three rounds will leave them as curious bystanders when the back-nine drama heats up at Augusta National. Woods, the four-time Masters champ, will start the final round at 4 over after shooting an even-par 72 on Saturday. Three-time winner Mickelson, at 7 over after a 2-over 74, will tee off even earlier in the morning. He may be done before the final group tees off. Given that Woods was the betting favorite entering this week and Mickelson was riding huge momentum after his recent World Golf Championships win in Mexico, being non-factors is definitely surprising. And disappointing. “I don’t have it,” Mickelson said. “It’s frustrating being out there. But it’s still Augusta. I’m trying to make due. But it’s just frustrating to be out there playing when you know you don’t have a chance.” Woods said his goal now is to finish at even par, maybe even in red numbers. He’ll need to shoot a 68 on Sunday to avoid finishing over par for just the third time since his last Masters win in 2005. “I wish this week would’ve been a little bit better,” Woods said. “Hopefully tomorrow I can shoot something, get me to even par or even in the red. I think that will be a good goal tomorrow and hopefully I can get it done.” What Woods hasn’t been able to do is figure out his faulty iron play. Distance control has been an issue, especially in the second round when he hit several approaches over the green. He’s found places this week at Augusta National that he’s never previously visited. As a result, he hasn’t given himself many makeable birdie putts, the strain on his putter leaving him mostly in a defensive posture. Woods called his iron play “scratchy this week” — lthough he finally hit the 12th green on Saturday after finding Rae’s Creek the first two days. “I just haven’t gotten it done,” Woods said. “I feel like I’m driving it better than I have all year, but I’m not capitalizing on it. And when I did miss, I missed in the wrong spots. My swing’s just off with my irons just at the wrong time.” As a result, he also has failed to take advantage of the four pars at Augusta National, the holes he’s eaten up in his 20 previous visits. Woods had entered this week a cumulative 150 under on the par 5s, but he’s just 1 under on those holes through three rounds. “I’m hitting so many good putts; they’re just not going in,” Woods said. “But I’m not hitting it close enough. I’m not getting up there and not taking advantage of the par 5s. Consequently, a good round is even par.” As for Mickelson, his week was summed up by his second shot on the opening hole Saturday. After his tee shot sailed into the trees down the right side, his ball rested on the pine straw. He tried to hit from under some branches but failed to connect on his first swing. “I hit the trunk on the downswing and just whiffed it,” Mickelson explained. “And punched out and made triple. I’ve made a lot of triples lately.” In fact, he’s suffered a triple bogey in each of the last two rounds — it’s the sixth time in any major he’s had two triples in a week. Three of those have been at the Masters (2012, 2014 and this week). A bogey on the ensuing hole had Mickelson reeling, but he managed to shoot 2 under for the final 16 holes. In the process, he picked up a few tips on the course. “It’s Augusta; you always learn some things,” Mickelson said. “I was taking some notes — there were some new pins there. So I’m kind of doing preparation for next year, I guess.” At least Mickelson won’t go away empty-handed this week. Thanks to his eagle at the par-5 eighth — set up by a driver off the deck to 9 feet — he is assured of a pair of crystal glasses awarded for any eagle at the Masters. “Every now and then I’ll hit a shot like that and it makes it fun,” Mickelson said of his second shot. “The nice thing is I’ll get some crystal out of it. It wasn’t a total loss.”

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