Pavon leads, Rahm makes cut at Spanish Open

2022 RBC Heritage, Round 2 Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Patrick Cantlay (1, -9, 37.5%) 2. Erik Van Rooyen (T3, -6, 4.8%) 3. Aaron Wise (T3, -6, 3.9%) 4. Robert Streb (2, -7, 3.9%) 5. Joaquin Niemann (T8, -5, 3.6%) 6. Joel Dahmen (T3, -6, 3.6%) 7. Cameron Young (T3, -6, 3.5%) 8. Shane Lowry (T14, -4, 3.1%) 9. Cameron Tringale (T3, -6, 3.0%) 10. Corey Conners (T14, -4, 2.8%) Top Strokes-Gained Performers from Round 2: Putting: Brendon Todd +4.4 Around the Green: Aaron Wise +2.8 Approach the Green: Brian Stuard +3.9 Off-the-tee: Adam Schenk +2.1 Total: Patrick Cantlay +5.5 NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the RBC Heritage, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

Click here to read the full article…

Welcome to Numbers to Know, where we will dive into Jon Rahm’s triumph at the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide. Rahm survived a tough Sunday to claim his fourth PGA TOUR win and moved to world No. 1 as a result. 1. MASTER CLASS: Rahm outperformed the field by +3.866 strokes per round from tee to green at Muirfield Village on the way to his win. It was the best Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green performance of his PGA TOUR career. The only other time he averaged over three strokes gained per round in a tournament from tee to green was the 2017 Farmers Insurance Open which he also won. Rahm is also the first player this season to gain over 15 total strokes (+15.46) from tee to green in a PGA TOUR event. 2. WINNING AS A HABIT: Rahm became just the fourth player to win at least once in each of the last four seasons on the PGA TOUR. He joined Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau with this honor. Technically, since Rahm got his card through the non-member FedExCup points list in 2015-16 where he played nine times, twice as an amateur, he has not won on each of his seasons on TOUR. However, in those nine starts he had three top 10s including a T3 at the 2016 Quicken Loans National and a T2 at the 2016 RBC Canadian Open. 3. NUMERO UNO: Rahm moved to eighth in the FedExCup standings, setting himself up for a run at the Wyndham Rewards title and the FedExCup itself. He would become the first Spanish player to win either of those titles should he do so. But the win at the Memorial Tournament also jettisoned him to world No. 1 at just 25 years of age. He is the fifth youngest player to reach world No. 1 and just the second Spanish player behind Seve Ballesteros. Rahm is the 24th player in history to be world No. 1 (the official rankings began in 1986). 4. BACK-NINE BANDIT: The back nine at Muirfield Village is the tougher of the two sides. At the conclusion of the tournament the front side scoring average was 36.831 (+.831 over par) while the back played to a 37.351 (+1.351 over par). Rahm’s win was helped by his stellar play on the tough side through the first three rounds. At the 54-hole mark Rahm was 9-under on Nos. 10-18, three shots better than Carlos Ortiz and at least four shots better than the rest of the field, including Ryan Palmer (-5) who would be his main rival for the title. Rahm had 10 birdies and just a lone bogey on the stretch in the opening three rounds. On Sunday, however, he shot 41 on that side of the course, helped by a two-shot penalty on the 16th hole. As such he was the first winner to shoot 41 on the back nine in the final round of an event on TOUR in the last 37 years (official events). He still finished the tournament as one of the best players on that stretch at a 4 under total, beaten only by Palmer (-5) and Matt Wallace (-5). 5. REGULAR SEASON RACE HEATS UP: With just four weeks to go before the FedExCup Playoffs begin Rahm made a huge step forward in the Wyndham Rewards race. He is no stranger to the bonus system for those in the regular season top 10, having finished 10th last season. But Rahm is one of just three of last season’s top 10 who are currently trending to be there again this season. Webb Simpson (second), Rory McIlroy (fifth) and Rahm (eighth) are well placed particularly given that last season, eight of the final top 10 in the Wyndham Rewards Top 10 were already inside the cut off with four weeks remaining in the regular season. Since 2009, only two players have been outside the top 25 of the FedExCup standings with four weeks to go and went onto finish the Regular Season inside the top 10 . Y.E. Yang did so in 2009 by moving from 28th to seventh and Simpson made a late run last year going from 26th to ninth. In the last 11 PGA TOUR seasons, McIlroy is the only player to finish first in the final regular season standings after being outside the top-three of the FedExCup standings with four weeks to go (he was 11th). Since 2009, with four weeks left, 22 players started outside the top-10 and played their way into the final top 10 of the regular season standings (most in a season is three in 2010, 2013 and 2014).

Click here to read the full article…

Click here to read the full article…