One & Done: The Honda Classic

When my man (and colleague), Mike Glasscott, writes The Confidence Factor in advance of tournaments and the daily Emergency 9 during competition, succumbs to the temptation to preemptively surrender, I don’t know where else to turn for a warm embrace. Glass launched the erstwhile #TTA (for “The Thursday Army”) on Twitter years ago. It’s a tag for all of gamers who lament about an early double bogey or birdie-free opening round in a competitive format in which there is a multitude of opportunities to reverse course and contribute to our cause. With the world connected electronically as it is, why remain patient in sharing dissatisfaction? Like so many others, Glass circled Dustin Johnson as his One & Done for the Genesis Open. After opening the tournament with a 3-over 74 and sitting birdie-free 1-over through eight holes of the second round, DJ seemed to be on a sauntering beeline to slam his trunk. So, at 9:42 a.m. PT on Friday, Glass tweeted, “First, [Hideki] Matsuyama at WMPO. Now, DJ at Genesis. Fantasy golf, bloody [expletive].” Lo and behold, Johnson came home in bogey-free 3-under to survive the cut by two strokes. A bogey-free 64 on Saturday thrust the defending champion to within striking distance of 54-hole leader Bubba Watson. Alas, DJ squandered the four-shot deficit, closed with 73 and landed in a four-way share of 16th place, eight swings adrift of Watson’s championship pace. The last golfer to prevail after opening any tournament with as high as a 74 was Justin Rose at the 2014 Quicken Loans National contested at Congressional, which is a par 71 like Riviera. The last 75 by a champion was carded by Mark Calcavecchia on par-71 Copperhead at the 2007 Valspar Championship. Since 1970, there have been five winners who opened with 76. So, hang in there, Glass, er, gamers, especially when Johnson is in control. If your pick for The Honda Classic signs for an over-par score after his first loop of PGA National’s Champion Course, you’ll have reason to whine. The average score in the opening round among the 11 winners on the par 70 is 67.64. The last six champs averaged 66.67 in laying the foundation. Defending champion Rickie Fowler carded a pair of 66s before opening a four-stroke cushion with a third-round 65. If you’re not angling at him in a major this season (as I am), you think no further while plugging him in. Of the eight golfers among the 29 featured in Future Possibilities below for whom Honda is bolded, Graeme McDowell is the only other with a “1” beside this stop. Given where G-Mac is on his career arc, he presents better as the tail of the tandem in two-man games. Of the foursome with a “2” beside their names, only Sergio Garcia serves as a smart option right now, but he’s always the go-to at THE PLAYERS or The Open Championship because he’s the most reliable at both tournaments devoid of constants. Save Luke Donald for the RBC Heritage, Billy Horschel for the FedEx St. Jude Classic and Adam Scott until he regains form. Rory McIlroy is tempting every time he laces up the spikes, but the Honda doesn’t even appear on his relative long short list. Same goes for Justin Thomas and Jason Dufner. Abstain. Tyrrell Hatton is a timely option and he’d be my choice if Gary Woodland wasn’t available. The Englishman serves as a bridge in a field full of them. Fellow international PGA TOUR members Alex Noren, Tommy Fleetwood and Rafa Cabrera Bello line up similarly. If you’re in a two-man format and McDowell isn’t your pint of Guinness, consider Patton Kizzire, Russell Knox or Dylan Frittelli. Now all you need to do is hold your breath for a red number on Thursday. FUTURE POSSIBILITIES NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2017-18. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple sites are listed (e.g. 1 for strongest, 2 for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change all season no matter how many tournament remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment. Daniel Berger … Houston (3); St. Jude (1; two-time defending); Travelers (2) Keegan Bradley … Houston (3); Memorial (5); WGC-Bridgestone (2) Luke Donald … Honda (2); Valspar (3); Heritage (1) Jason Dufner … Valspar (1); DEAN & DELUCA (2); Memorial (3; defending); U.S. Open (4); Wyndham (6); TOUR Championship (7) Rickie Fowler … Honda (1; defending); Houston (4); Masters (8); Wells Fargo (7); PLAYERS (9); WGC-Bridgestone (3); THE NORTHERN TRUST (10); Dell Technologies (6) Jim Furyk … Valspar (5); Heritage (1); Memorial (7); U.S. Open (8); Canadian (3); WGC-Bridgestone (2); THE NORTHERN TRUST (9); TOUR Championship (4) Sergio Garcia … Honda (2); Masters (3; defending); PLAYERS (5); Open Championship (1); TOUR Championship (4) Brian Harman … Arnold Palmer (5); DEAN & DELUCA (4); John Deere (3) Russell Henley … Houston (1; defending); Greenbrier (3) J.B. Holmes … Houston (2); Wells Fargo (7); Greenbrier (5) Billy Horschel … Honda (2); Arnold Palmer (5); Valero (3); St. Jude (1); TOUR Championship (4) Charles Howell III … Valspar (4); Houston (7) Chris Kirk … Valero (4); PLAYERS (3); DEAN & DELUCA (2) Kevin Kisner … Heritage (4); DEAN & DELUCA (1; defending); Memorial (5); Wyndham (6) Russell Knox … Honda (6); Heritage (2); PLAYERS (8); Dell Technologies (7) Jamie Lovemark … Arnold Palmer (3) Graeme McDowell … Honda (1); Heritage (4); WGC-Bridgestone (3) William McGirt … Heritage (1); Memorial (4) Rory McIlroy … Arnold Palmer (10); WGC-Match Play (11); Masters (2); Wells Fargo (1); PLAYERS (8); Memorial (9); Open Championship (4); WGC-Bridgestone (7); Dell Technologies (5); TOUR Championship (3) Ryan Moore … Valspar (5); Masters (8); Travelers (2); John Deere (3); TOUR Championship (6) Ryan Palmer … Valero (1); DEAN & DELUCA (2); St. Jude (6) Scott Piercy … Houston (5); John Deere (6) Patrick Reed … Valspar (6); Travelers (5); PGA Championship (8); Wyndham (7); THE NORTHERN TRUST (9); Dell Technologies (2) Adam Scott … Honda (2); Arnold Palmer (11); Masters (4); PLAYERS (5); U.S. Open (10); Open Championship (8); WGC-Bridgestone (3); Dell Technologies (9); TOUR Championship (6) Webb Simpson … Wells Fargo (7); DEAN & DELUCA (4); Travelers (8); Greenbrier (5); Wyndham (1) Brandt Snedeker … WGC-Mexico (13); Arnold Palmer (12); Masters (7); Heritage (10); DEAN & DELUCA (11); U.S. Open (5); Travelers (6); Canadian (3); Wyndham (4) Justin Thomas … WGC-Mexico (7); Valspar (8); Wells Fargo (9); Dell Technologies (6; defending); TOUR Championship (3) Jimmy Walker … Valero (6); Greenbrier (8); Dell Technologies (7) Gary Woodland … Honda (6); Wells Fargo (5); Barracuda (1); Dell Technologies (3)

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