One & Done: The Honda Classic

For the stand-alone One & Done for the World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational, click here. And… exhale… Whew! You may recall in this space last week where I acknowledged that I’d be holding my breath for Martin Laird to commit to the Barracuda Championship. After Friday’s commitment deadline, there he was in the published field. And as of Wednesday morning, he was still in play. Just like One & Doners will usually save Zach Johnson or Steve Stricker for the John Deere Classic, we’re keen on doing the same for Laird, Brendan Steele and Gary Woodland on Montrêux Golf and Country Club. Their collective record in the tournament is ridiculous. However, when Steele qualified for the concurrent World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational when he won the Safeway Open last fall, and when Woodland (the 2013 Barracuda champ) emerged from a playoff at the Waste Management Phoenix Open six months ago to join Steele in Ohio, Laird was our only piece of chalk on the board. I don’t care that he didn’t descend in Reno, Nevada, with much to show for in results. The absence of it is all the more reason for him to reconnect with it where he has every time he’s appeared. In four appearances, he’s finished no worse than T7 in his last visit two years ago. Among the veterans, Robert Garrigus has been a staple in these hills. He loves to mash it at altitude, but his bugaboo is the putter. That slots him perfectly as the tandem in two-man formats. Kevin Streelman and Ryan Palmer are reliable pieces for league leaders, but gamers on the chase shouldn’t hesitate in circling Joel Dahmen. You just never know who it’s going to be or when, but when an unlikely talent on the kind of roll that he’s sustained for months and elevated in recent weeks, you’re struck with a similar hope that I had with Laird. As long as Dahmen fulfills this commitment, your decision is easy. Naturally, the Laird-Dahmen ticket is the way to go in two-man games, but also work in Kevin Tway, Richy Werenski or Andrew Putnam, if necessary. FUTURE POSSIBILITIES NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2017-18. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple sites are listed (e.g. 1 for strongest, 2 for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change all season no matter how many tournament remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment. Bill Haas … Wyndham (2) Martin Laird … Barracuda (1)

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Former world No. 1 and reigning PGA TOUR Player of the Year Scottie Scheffler is commanding a large portion of the handle at the BetMGM online sportsbook as he looks to break a near eight-month win drought in his home state Texas this week. After claiming his first four PGA TOUR wins in a six-event span last spring, a run that included the Masters title at Augusta National and a World Golf Championship in Austin, Scheffler has gone winless in his previous 14 starts as he lines up for the Cadence Bank Houston Open. Despite losing top spot in the world to Rory McIlroy a few weeks ago, Scheffler has still played solid golf during his “drought”. He has five top five finishes over that span, including a T3 last week in Mexico. This has ensured he remained a favorite each week in golf betting and that is once again the case as early action at BetMGM suggests bettors like his chances in Houston. As of Tuesday, Scheffler has the most handle (22.3%) on the third-most tickets (6.7%). He has the best golf odds to win at +600, which makes him a massive betting favorite, with Sam Burns having the second-best odds at +1400. The 26-year-old’s T-3 finish at the Worldwide Technology Championship at Mayakoba last week featured a final round 62 giving him significant momentum. He also enjoys playing at Memorial Park, not just because he’s back in the state where he went to college (University of Texas) and now resides, but also because of past results. Scheffler has made the cut both times the event has previously been played at the course, including a T-2 a year ago when he shot a second round 62. A year prior he settled for a T32 but shot a 65 in the final round. There’s no question he should have good vibes at a course that won’t yield as many birdies as the other events this fall. A win sends him back to world No.1. Tony Finau is another popular player ahead of the event, drawing the most tickets (10%) and third-most handle (10.3%). At over 7,400 yards for a par-70, Memorial Park is a much longer course than players have faced of length and should be a place where Finau can use his distance off the tee to his advantage. Current Handle & Tickets Handle Scottie Scheffler – 22.3% Sam Burns – 16.2% Tony Finau – 10.3% Hideki Matsuyama – 6.8% Keith Mitchell – 6.4% Tickets Tony Finau – 10% Sepp Straka – 7.8% Scottie Scheffler – 6.7% Taylor Pendrith– 4.7% Keith Mitchell – 4.7% With the second-best odds, Burns is pulling in the second-most handle at 16.2%. He had a strong showing at his event a year ago, finishing T-7. With a longer course, sharp runoffs around the greens, and the potential for windy conditions, don’t expect super-low scores this week. In fact, in the two years this event has been played at Memorial Park, the winning scores have been 13 and 10 under. * Visit BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. 21+ years of age or older to wager. BetMGM is available in AZ, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, KS, LA, MI, MS, NJ, NV, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, or WY only. All promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements. Paid in free bets. Free bets expire in 7 days from issuance. Minimum deposit required. Excludes Michigan Disassociated Persons. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO, DC, LA, NV, WY, VA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), 1-800-GAMBLER (IN, NJ, PA & WV), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA) or call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), call or text the Tennessee REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN) or call 1-888-777-9696 (MS). Sports betting is void where prohibited. Promotional offers not available in Nevada. Responsible sports betting starts with a game plan. Set a budget. Keep it social. Play with friends. Learn the game and know the odds. Play with trusted, licensed operators. CLICK HERE to learn more at HaveAGamePlan.org

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The PGA TOUR travels to Jackson, Mississippi, for the Sanderson Farms Championship located at The Country Club of Jackson. The field should be similar to last week’s season-opening A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier, with another opportunity for a handful of TOUR veterans and rookies looking to make an early impact. Zach Johnson, Jimmy Walker and Jason Dufner join another slew of rookies such as Doug Ghim, Maverick McNealy, Scottie Scheffler and Kristoffer Ventura looking to gain important FedExCup points as well as an early victory similar to last year’s winner, Cameron Champ. The course will measure at 7,421 yards, sets up as a par-72 and will be putted on Bermuda grass this week. Country Club of Jackson measured as the ninth longest course last season but shouldn’t be an issue for the “non-bombersâ€� on TOUR. The average driving distance is shorter here than the TOUR average and a lot of the distance comes from the four par 5s, three measuring more than 550 yards and one measuring more than 600 yards, as well as the par-4 18th, measuring just over 500 yards. Players such as Champ, Luke List and Wyndham Clark all ranked inside the top-five in driving distance last season, but they might choose to club down this week. The fairways are narrow and recorded 11% less fairways hit in regulation compared to the TOUR average. This is also why the highest approach shot distribution comes from 200-plus yards, with the second-most coming from 125-150 yards. Even though hitting fairways is important, hitting your irons well is a higher priority. In 2018, of the golfers who finished inside the top 10 at Sanderson Farms, nine gained strokes in Strokes Gained: Approach The Green. Looking back to 2017, the top five finishers gained an average of 5.52 with their approach shots, so starting your lineups with golfers who’ve been hitting their irons well isn’t a bad strategy. Another key metric to focus on this week is par-5 scoring average — 56% of the total birdies came from the par 5s in 2018. TOP VALUES Emiliano Grillo ($9,400) Grillo is making his first start of the new season and ranks first in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green over the past six tournaments. He also has gained strokes with his irons in nine of his past 10 starts, averaging three strokes gained over the field in that stretch. Grillo missed just three cuts last season and much of it was due to his poor putting, losing more than 10 strokes on the greens. Grillo has done well during the fall season with two top-10s (2016, 2017 OHL Classic at Mayakoba) and a victory (2015 Safeway Open), so hopefully he leans on experience while showing improvement in his putting. Aaron Wise ($8,500) Even though distance off the tee isn’t a huge advantage over the field, it never hurts. Wise ranked just inside the top 35 in driving distance last season, and he’ll use that to his advantage on the par 5s this week. Speaking of those par 5s, Wise ranks first in par 5 scoring average and second in birdie or better gained in the past 24 rounds. Cameron Tringale ($7,300) Tringale finished a respectable T36 last week at Greenbrier and shot three rounds in the 60s but left room to play better, hitting just 69% of his greens in regulation and 51% of his fairways. He also didn’t do much on the greens when he did hit them, gaining less than a stroke with his putter, but he’s been playing solid golf over the past few months. Coming into last week, Tringale ranked inside the top 15 in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, top 20 in par-5 scoring average and first in birdie or better gained over the past six tournaments. Wes Roach ($6,300) Roach finished his 2019 season gaining strokes through approach in four of his last five tournaments and enters Sanderson ranking 13th in Stroke Gained: Approach the Green, as well as inside the top five in birdie or better gained over the past six tournaments. He struggles on Bermuda greens, ranking 63rd in Strokes Gained: Putting over the past 24 rounds, but is so precise with his irons that he’s worth a look in his salary range. Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game. Writer’s bio: “I’m a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is reidtfowler) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.â€�

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