No matter what I advise for strategy, placement and everything else in Tiger Woods’ orbit, gamers are gonna do what gamers are gonna do. With him in play at this week’s Farmers Insurance Open, I’m reminded of this reality. On one hand, it’s exactly one of my career objectives; that is, that you don’t need me. Think of it like a graduate program. I help you ramp into the hobby, but eventually you’re on your own, perhaps even devising your own methods. Of course, I’m always here to do your homework and answer questions because there’s often not enough time for you to sink your teeth into the research, but understand that I do convey quite a bit of my analysis with an implication that this isn’t your first rodeo. I certainly rear beginners, but they’re not yet part of the core audience. The irony is also cliché, that beginners tend to make the most mistakes. You’d think that they’d listen the best, but logic doesn’t apply in this case. At the top of the list of questionable maneuvers might be when to invest in Woods. For an example, look no further back than last year’s Farmers. In my extended capsule for Woods in the Fantasy Insider, I wrote, “we also must wonder how far he is away from another setback.” In the One & Done column the next day, I added, “My philosophy on Woods is simple. When he’s healthy, he doesn’t slump. When he’s not healthy, he stops playing.” The advice was to sit tight and let him come to us. Naturally, that didn’t stop three percent of One & Doners from plugging him in. That slotted him 13th overall. (He missed the cut and was shut down for 10 months after withdrawing with the recurring back injury in Dubai the following week.) If that sounds reasonable, consider that Rickie Fowler was 15th, Hideki Matsuyama was 16th, Marc Leishman was 19th, Tony Finau was 21st and eventual champion Jon Rahm ranked 26th in ownership percentage. If you want to argue that there was motivation to holster all five of those guys, that stance applied most to Woods. I can’t prove what percentage of Woods’ investment contingent were beginners, but based on my experience, I suspect that they represented a distinct majority. Despite the assumption that gamers know better because they learn – remember my career objective? – this week’s faith in Woods could be even higher. He’s definitely healthy, but he’s also getting rave reviews from peers. There is no fair comparison for this comeback. It stands alone. At the same time, the fantasy advice hasn’t changed: Wait. If I hadn’t already burned Tony Finau, I wouldn’t hesitate at Torrey Pines. He presents zero concern in terms of course history and form, and the Farmers slots as his best site of the season in our format. This is also Brandt Snedeker’s top spot, but that’s only a phenomenal track record talking. Give him more time to lay into a groove following his unusual sternum injury that stripped him of five months of competition in 2017. Rahm is defending. He’s also coming off victory No. 2 last Sunday. When you’re sitting 1st-1st in the categories with which all gamers start their weeks – course success and form – he’s as no-brainer as no-brainer gets. He’s also my selection. Perhaps pause would be warranted if another emergent talent was in his shoes, but he’s not ordinary. He’s extraordinary. Charles Howell III and Gary Woodland are suitable alternatives. I’d hold off on Justin Rose if for no other reason than he’s making the trip from Abu Dhabi. We saw that work against Rickie Fowler (from 2015-2017), who is also in the field, but he’s also better reserved for later. The rest of the usual suspects are ruled out in Futures Possibilities. It’s early. A sneaky selection is Shane Lowry, who was chosen by one fewer One & Doner that Woods en route to a T33 a year ago. The Irishman’s previous two appearances resulted in top-15 finishes and he’s fresh off a blistering conclusion to 2017. If Rahm wasn’t sitting there for me, I wouldn’t hesitate on Lowry. Two-man gamers could lead with Lowry and add Kyle Stanley, Ollie Schniederjans or Jhonattan Vegas. FUTURE POSSIBILITIES NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2017-18. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple sites are listed (e.g. 1 for strongest, 2 for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change all season no matter how many tournament remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment. Keegan Bradley … Farmers (6); Waste Management (7); Genesis (4); Houston (3); Memorial (5); WGC-Bridgestone (2) Jason Day … Farmers (7); Pebble Beach (3); Arnold Palmer (6); WGC-Match Play (10); Masters (4); PLAYERS (13); U.S. Open (2); Canadian (11); WGC-Bridgestone (9); PGA Championship (1); THE NORTHERN TRUST (8); Dell Technologies (5) Luke Donald … Honda (2); Valspar (3); Heritage (1) Tony Finau … Farmers (1); Valero (5); Memorial (3); Greenbrier (2); Canadian (4) Rickie Fowler … Waste Management (5); Honda (1; defending); Houston (4); Masters (8); Wells Fargo (7); PLAYERS (9); WGC-Bridgestone (3); THE NORTHERN TRUST (10); Dell Technologies (6) Bill Haas … Genesis (3); Valspar (4); WGC-Match Play (5); Wyndham (2) Brian Harman … Arnold Palmer (5); DEAN & DELUCA (4); John Deere (3) Charley Hoffman … Genesis (6); Heritage (7); Houston (5); Valero (1); DEAN & DELUCA (4); Travelers (2); Canadian (3) J.B. Holmes … Farmers (6); Waste Management (1); Pebble Beach (4); Genesis (3); Houston (2); Wells Fargo (7); Greenbrier (5) Billy Horschel … Honda (2); Arnold Palmer (5); Valero (3); St. Jude (1); TOUR Championship (4) Charles Howell III … Farmers (2); Valspar (4); Houston (7) Chris Kirk … Valero (4); PLAYERS (3); DEAN & DELUCA (2) Russell Knox … Honda (6); Heritage (2); PLAYERS (8); Dell Technologies (7) Martin Laird … Farmers (6); Waste Management (5); Genesis (3); Valero (7); Barracuda (1) Marc Leishman … Arnold Palmer (3; defending); DEAN & DELUCA (7); Memorial (5); Travelers (2); Open Championship (1) Jamie Lovemark … Arnold Palmer (3) Hideki Matsuyama … Waste Management (1; two-time defending); Genesis (7); Arnold Palmer (11); Masters (5); Wells Fargo (13); PLAYERS (9); Memorial (10); U.S. Open (6); WGC-Bridgestone (8; defending) Phil Mickelson … Waste Management (8); Pebble Beach (6); WGC-Mexico (9); Houston (3); Masters (4); Wells Fargo (2); St. Jude (1); Open Championship (5) Francesco Molinari … Arnold Palmer (1); PLAYERS (2) Ryan Palmer … Waste Management (5); Valero (1); DEAN & DELUCA (2); St. Jude (6) Jon Rahm … Farmers (defending) Patrick Reed … Pebble Beach (4); Valspar (6); Travelers (5); PGA Championship (8); Wyndham (7); THE NORTHERN TRUST (9); Dell Technologies (2) Justin Rose … Genesis (5); Arnold Palmer (3); Masters (1); Wells Fargo (4); PLAYERS (9); Memorial (6); Open Championship (8); WGC-Bridgestone (7); TOUR Championship (2) Brandt Snedeker … Farmers (1); Waste Management (9); Pebble Beach (2); WGC-Mexico (13); Arnold Palmer (12); Masters (7); Heritage (10); DEAN & DELUCA (11); U.S. Open (5); Travelers (6); Canadian (3); Wyndham (4) Brendan Steele … Waste Management (2); Honda (5); Valero (6); Wells Fargo (7); Travelers (3) Kevin Streelman … Pebble Beach (4); Wells Fargo (3); Memorial (1); Travelers (2) Jimmy Walker … Farmers (3); Pebble Beach (2); Genesis (5); Valero (6); Greenbrier (8); Dell Technologies (7) Gary Woodland … Farmers (4); Honda (6); Wells Fargo (5); Barracuda (1); Dell Technologies (3)
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