One & Done: AT&T Byron Nelson

No, I am not burning Tiger Woods at THE PLAYERS Championship, and I encourage you to do the same. For as obvious that a healthy Woods is the man at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard that he’s won eight times (and for which the opposite of the opening line led off last week’s One & Done preview, which is why it could sound familiar), he’s as obvious a no-play at TPC Sawgrass. Just about everybody is. With double bogeys and worse awaiting around numerous corners, on several approaches and on the tees of par 3s of TPC Sawgrass, and with the deepest field the PGA TOUR offers attempting to tame it, this is the ideal week to abstain from the kind of talent on which you’re going to rely in the majors and FedExCup Playoffs. Since, in other preview material, I’ve already gone into how course success largely is a coincidence and that the course always wins, only rookie gamers who aren’t aware of the pitfalls of THE PLAYERS will be making piles on those usual suspects. Instead, the dispersion of ownership percentages should be flat and vast. Yes, 600 FedExCup points and $2.25 million goes to the winner, but the odds of you having that guy are lower here than probably every other week. Anecdotal arguments trumps the empirically rooted because it’s so apparent. Do not permit the temptation of taking a bite from that apple supersede your attraction to it. The simple philosophy is to use THE PLAYERS, the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play and The Open Championship as the glossiest bridges over which to navigate with chalk on the fringes. Each presents a blend of variables cause for pause. Repeat after me, “I want to burn a big name, but …” In order, the most sensible One & Done picks at TPC Sawgrass are Sergio Garcia, Francesco Molinari, Adam Scott, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Tommy Fleetwood, Ian Poulter and Xander Schauffele. And get used to it in Austin and at Royal Portrush. You want starts performing on the biggest stages for certain, but you’re also going to be OK if any underachieves. The only point I’ll concede to veteran gamers who are chasing and will be circling guys like Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson is that you’re entitled to an extra risk-reward play with one less Playoffs event this season. Granted, that applies only to PGA TOUR Fantasy One & Done gamers since FedExCup points measure performance, but earnings-based gamers still need to consider the merits of clubbing down off the tee. Speaking of the Playoffs, because the three-event series will end a month earlier this year and because THE PLAYERS is contested now, this is an ideal time to sit down and sketch out who’s still on your board and where you might want to take your swings with each of the remaining haymakers. In the past, I’ve advised using the Masters as the midseason timing mechanism for this review, but it might be too late by then in 2018-19. The purpose of waiting until now is to remain open-minded and fluid. This allows most of the picks to emerge organically, which should be more fun than penciling in probables for future stops. Now that you know how you stack up against your opposition, you can develop a plan of attack for the second half of the season. If you’re front-running, keep doing what you’re doing assuming you haven’t burned all of the top 20 in the Official World Golf Ranking. In that extreme case, consider throttling back in the pursuit of moderation. If you’re behind, then think about playing more aggressively assuming you haven’t been a victim of unprecedented bad luck. FUTURE POSSIBILITIES NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2018-19. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple sites are listed (e.g. 1 for strongest, 2 for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change all season no matter how many tournament remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment. Byeong Hun An … Memorial (1) Daniel Berger … Travelers (1) Keegan Bradley … Memorial (5); Travelers (4) Rafa Cabrera Bello … PLAYERS (1); Wyndham (4) Patrick Cantlay … Valspar (2); Memorial (3) Paul Casey … Valspar (7; defending); WGC-Match Play (8); Masters (2); Wells Fargo (9); Travelers (1); TOUR Championship (3) Jason Day … PLAYERS (7); WGC-Match Play (11); Masters (4); Wells Fargo (6 defending); PGA Championship (3); U.S. Open (10); Open Championship (9) Bryson DeChambeau … Heritage (1);  Memorial (2; defending); Travelers (4); John Deere (7) Jason Dufner … PLAYERS (7); Valspar (4); New Orleans (1); Charles Schwab (6); Memorial (5); U.S. Open (2); Wyndham (8); TOUR Championship (10) Tony Finau … Valero (5); Memorial (2) Rickie Fowler … Masters (2); Wells Fargo (6); PGA Championship (9); Memorial (5); U.S. Open (10) Sergio Garcia … PLAYERS (7); Valspar (9); Masters (6); Open Championship (5); TOUR Championship (2) Branden Grace … Heritage (1); Valero (3); Byron Nelson (5); U.S. Open (4) Emiliano Grillo … Charles Schwab (3) Adam Hadwin … Valspar (2); John Deere (5) Brian Harman … Charles Schwab (1); Travelers (5); John Deere (4) Russell Henley … Masters (3) Charley Hoffman … Masters (4); Heritage (7); Valero (3); Charles Schwab (6); Travelers (1) J.B. Holmes … Wells Fargo (5) Billy Horschel … Valero (2); New Orleans (3; defending); Wyndham (6); TOUR Championship (1) Dustin Johnson … Masters (8); PGA Championship (11); Memorial (10); U.S. Open (1); WGC-St. Jude (6); TOUR Championship (7) Zach Johnson … Valero (4); Charles Schwab (5); John Deere (1); Open Championship (2); TOUR Championship (8) Si Woo Kim … PLAYERS (3); Heritage (1) Chris Kirk … PLAYERS (5); Valero (3); Charles Schwab (2) Kevin Kisner … Heritage (3); New Orleans (5); Charles Schwab (2); Memorial (6) Russell Knox … Heritage (2) Brooks Koepka … WGC-Match Play (3); Masters (7); PGA Championship (2; defending); Charles Schwab (6); U.S. Open (1; two-time defending); Open Championship (8) Matt Kuchar … PLAYERS (5); Valspar (9); Masters (6); Heritage (2); Charles Schwab (7); Memorial (1); Open Championship (8) Martin Laird … Valero (5); Reno-Tahoe (2) Marc Leishman … Byron Nelson (6); Memorial (4); Travelers (3); Open Championship (8) Hideki Matsuyama … PLAYERS (9); Masters (4); PGA Championship (13); Memorial (8); U.S. Open (14); Wyndham (7); TOUR Championship (5) Rory McIlroy … Masters (4); Wells Fargo (3); Memorial (5); Travelers (8); Open Championship (1); TOUR Championship (6) Phil Mickelson … Masters (9); Wells Fargo (2); Open Championship (8); WGC-St. Jude (3) Francesco Molinari … PLAYERS (3); Wells Fargo (6); PGA Championship (4); Open Championship (1; defending) Ryan Moore … Valspar (3); Valero (7); Masters (13); Memorial (11); Travelers (6); John Deere (8); Wyndham (2); TOUR Championship (9) Kevin Na … Valspar (6); Charles Schwab (3); Wyndham (5) Louis Oosthuizen … Valspar (3); WGC-Match Play (1); Masters (2); U.S. Open (5); PGA Championship (4) Ryan Palmer … Valero (2); Charles Schwab (4) Scott Piercy … New Orleans (1; co-defending); Canadian (7; last winner at Hamilton in 2012) Jon Rahm … Masters (5); Charles Schwab (1); TOUR Championship (7) Patrick Reed … Valspar (1); Masters (5; defending); PGA Championship (4); U.S. Open (3); Travelers (7) Justin Rose … PLAYERS (10); Masters (1); Charles Schwab (7; defending); Memorial (4); Open Championship (8); TOUR Championship (2) Xander Schauffele … PLAYERS (5); U.S. Open (3); Open Championship (4); TOUR Championship (1) Adam Scott … PLAYERS (2); Masters (6); Byron Nelson (11); PGA Championship (8); U.S. Open (9); Open Championship (7); TOUR Championship (3) Webb Simpson … PLAYERS (5; defending); Heritage (6); Wells Fargo (7); Charles Schwab (8); Travelers (9); Wyndham (1) Cameron Smith … Wyndham (3) Brandt Snedeker … Masters (10); Heritage (6); Charles Schwab (7); U.S. Open (5); Travelers (9); Wyndham (1; defending) Jordan Spieth … Valspar (14); Masters (1); PGA Championship (7); Charles Schwab (5); Memorial (13); U.S. Open (4); Travelers (9); Open Championship (6); TOUR Championship (8) Brendan Steele … Valero (8); Wells Fargo (9); Travelers (4); Reno-Tahoe (3) Henrik Stenson … PLAYERS (9); Valspar (3); Masters (5); PGA Championship (4); Open Championship (6); Wyndham (8); TOUR Championship (7) Kevin Streelman … Valero (9); Heritage (5); Memorial (4); Travelers (7) Justin Thomas … PLAYERS (11); PGA Championship (9); Memorial (8); TOUR Championship (3) Jimmy Walker … Valero (2); Byron Nelson (6) Bubba Watson … WGC-Match Play (6; defending); Masters (5); Memorial (7); Travelers (2; defending); TOUR Championship (8) Gary Woodland … Memorial (4) Tiger Woods … Masters (2); Memorial (4); THE NORTHERN TRUST (6); TOUR Championship (5; defending).

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It’s almost Christmas Party season and the TOUR will have their annual pre-holiday get-together on lovely Sea Island to wrap up the first half of the schedule. The par-70 Seaside Course (7,005 yards) was the original host but Plantation was added to the rotation for the 2015 edition won by Kevin Kisner. Seaside’s large TifEagle Bermuda greens will provide the challenge this week, if the wind stays down, as the pros are rarely bothered by two inches of rough. RELATED: Power Rankings | Daily fantasy advice | Sleeper picks The par-72 Plantation Course (7,060 yards) was just completely renovated and redesigned by tournament host Davis Love III and his brother Mark. I wouldn’t expect it to play as easy as it has in the past, which is normal in year one after changes, but that yardage shouldn’t bother many, if any.  The final regular season event of calendar 2019 will have 156 players casually knocking it around the Seaside (host) and Plantation (Thursday/Friday only) courses for one final chance to become exempt for the rest of this season and the next two. Toss in $1.188 million, (500 FedExCup points) to the winner and it’s not a bad White Elephant gift! The 10th edition at such a popular place to live for the pros would suggest course form is important this week. While I’m not arguing, I’ll point out there have been no repeat or multiple winners during this run. Gamers will remember that’s hardly a surprise in events when tons of birdies and scores in the 60s are required annually to compete. While the residents of Sea Island should have the most reps, don’t forget that when these guys go “home” during the season for a few weeks they aren’t out grinding or playing. They’re usually resting or spending time with family. The recent winners below will point out some interesting trends for use this week. Recent Winners 2018: Charles Howell III (-19, 263) Sea Island resident broke a four-year streak of first-time winners at The RSM Classic. … Defeated Patrick Rodgers in a two-hole playoff. … Led after 18, 36 and 54 holes. … 36-hole lead of three is largest in tournament history and was bogey-free. … Becomes fifth 54-hole leader of the last six to close the deal. … Led the field in GIR and posted sixth in Putting: Birdie-or-Better percentage. Notables: Rodgers closed 61-62 to set the TOUR record for the final two rounds. … Rodgers led the field in Strokes Gained: Putting and birdies with 26. … Top 45 players were 10-under or lower. … Webb Simpson led the field Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, closed 63-65 for solo third. Luke List matched Simpson’s weekend but was T4. … Nick Watney (64) posted the lowest round of the week at Plantation. 2017: Austin Cook (-21, 261) Missed Kisner’s winning total by a shot as he won by four. … Put on a clinic as he was T4 fairways, T2 GIR and T1 scrambling. … Tied the 36-hole record (-14) while setting the 54-hole record (-18). … Led the field with 23 birdies against only two bogeys (no others). … First TOUR win in 14th start. … First time at the event. … Fifth first-time winner in eight at The RSM Classic. Notables: 2014 champ Chris Kirk (T4) played in the final group and set the Plantation course record (63) in Round 1. … J.J. Spaun (2nd) and Cook shared the low round of the week at Seaside with 62. … Brian Gay (3rd) opened 65-64 and was one of 11 players to post all four rounds in the 60s. … Kevin Streelman (T17) posted one bogey over 72 holes. 2016: Mackenzie Hughes (-17, 265) Opened with 61 on Seaside and never looked back. … Led after every round, except the last, as he won a five-man playoff on Monday. … First TOUR victory in his ninth start. … First attempt at The RSM Classic. … Led the field Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and birdies (23), second in Putting: Birdie-or-Better percentage and third in scrambling. … Made a triple (!) in Round 3 and still won. Notables: Billy Horschel (P2) and Henrik Norlander (P2) are in the field again this year. … Jim Furyk (T6) and Patrick Rodgers (T10) are also competing this week. … Cut was 5 under. … Resident Jonathan Byrd (T21) and Stewart Cink (T10) signed for 62 at Seaside. Key stat leaders Top golfers in each statistic on the 2018-19 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete this week. The RSM Classic does NOT use laser measurements on the Plantation course.  * – previous top 10 finish here Greens in Regulation  5  *Jason Dufner  7  *Charles Howell III  8  Josh Teater 12 Talor Gooch 12 Shawn Stefani 14 Martin Laird 15 *Kevin Streelman 17 Cameron Tringale 18 Brice Garnett 20 *Matt Kuchar 23 Jhonattan Vegas 24 *Jim Furyk 25 Hank Lebioda 26 Russell Knox Putting: Birdie-or-Better Percentage  6  Denny McCarthy  7  Aaron Wise 11 Si Woo Kim 14 Dominic Bozzelli 20 Troy Merritt 21 Sepp Straka 23 *Vaughn Taylor Sub-Par Rounds  2  Adam Schenk  3  *Vaughn Taylor  4  Rory Sabbatini  5  *Charles Howell III  8  *Billy Horschel  8  Nick Taylor 12 Joel Dahmen 12 *Kevin Kisner 12 J.T. Poston 19 *Webb Simpson 19 *Matt Kuchar 19 Brian Stuard 22 *Harris English 26 Brice Garnett 26 Matt Jones 26 Denny McCarthy Bermuda Bosses Kevin Kisner: The inaugural champ when Plantation was added, Kisner is 53 under the last four years with a MC. His top 10s include the last two years plus T4 the final time Seaside was the exclusive track. Charles Howell III: His win last season was his fourth top-10 payoff in nine starts. I’d say he’s comfortable on this layout. Webb Simpson: If a fantastic short game is one of the keys, he’ll be involved. Lost a playoff in 2011 and was third last year. Zach Johnson: I used to believe this was his come-down event from a long season but the last two years he’s popped into the top 10 and is 28 under. This might be his new John Deere Classic as he gets older! Dig Deeper Patrick Rodgers: As noted above, he’s found his happy spot here with P2 and T10 in two of his last three attempts. Russell Henley: One of the many Georgia Bulldogs to find top-10 successes on the Golden Isles, Henley has cashed three times in the big bucks in five tries. Brian Harman: Picked up his second top-10 check with T4 two years ago but has posted 66 or better in four of his last six rounds. Chris Kirk: Course record holder at Plantation has T4, T4 and WIN in three of his last six. Wait, What? Matt Kuchar: Never worse than T29 but only one top 10 (T7, 2014) as he’ll make his eighth start. Billy Horschel: Lost in a playoff to Hughes in 2016 yet didn’t play the last two seasons.

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