Monday Finish: McIlroy closes like a champion at THE PLAYERS

Bay Hill Club & Lodge was an absolute bully at last year's Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. Facing fierce winds on the weekend, the field averaged more than 2.1 strokes over par for the tournament, making it the most difficult course on the PGA TOUR for the 2019-2020 season. It was the first time Bay Hill had yielded a scoring average over 74 since 1983, and the highest winning score in relation to par (-4, Tyrrell Hatton) at the event since '83, as well. Approach play was especially perilous, with the field recording an average proximity to the hole of 54'4", the largest number all season on TOUR. They hit only 50.5% of greens in regulation for the week, the lowest number in any non-major since the 2005 RBC Canadian Open at Shaughnessy Golf and Country Club (49.8%). While last year's conditions made for a tougher test than players normally face in Orlando, there is one statistic about Bay Hill that reveals itself every year, regardless of the weather. Bay Hill annually ranks among the courses with the most approach shots by the field from outside 200 yards. Last season, there were more than 1,800 approaches from that range - most of any course all season. Since 2016, there have been 9,926 approach shots hit from 200 yards out or farther - nearly 3,000 more than the next-closest course in that span (TPC River Highlands at 7,007). Part of the source of this are the long par 3s at Arnie's place: the quartet of holes have an average length of 216.5 yards on the scorecard. That was the longest average length for par 3s on TOUR last season, and ranked second-longest each of the previous two years - the par-3 holes at Corales Golf Club, host of the Corales Puntacana Championship, averaged 230.5 yards on the card in 2018 and 2019. So how have recent winners at Bay Hill fared on these long approaches? Since 2012, they are a combined 44 under par when hitting approach shots (on all holes, regardless of par) from outside 200 yards. In that span, the winner at Bay Hill has a proximity to the hole 4'9" better than the field average that particular week. Three tournament winners in that span beat the field average by 6 feet or more - Tiger Woods in 2013 (6'1"), Matt Every in 2015 (9'9"), and Rory McIlroy in 2018 (16'9"). McIlroy's performance on these particular shots was especially remarkable. In his 2018 win at Bay Hill, McIlroy led the field in approach shot proximity from outside 200 yards. When McIlroy is at his best, this is a pervasive theme. Only eight times in the ShotLink era (a collection of more than 600 tournaments) has a winner averaged less than 35 feet away on approach shots outside 200 yards (minimum 15 attempts). McIlroy has four of those wins. So which of the players in this week's field show promise in this particular statistic? There are more than 180 with 100 or more approach shots from outside 200 yards on TOUR the last 2 seasons. Of that group, you don't have to look far to find a familiar name: this week's defending champion, Tyrrell Hatton, ranks second in average proximity to the hole (44'2") when facing that length of an approach shot. Bryson DeChambeau, who has finished in the top five twice in the last three years at this event, ranks third (44'10"). The leader in this statistic is Will Gordon (43'2"), who makes his Bay Hill debut this week. How about scoring from that distance? Gordon ranks fourth in score to par per attempt (-0.29), best in the field in Orlando. Talor Gooch is another under-the-radar name who performs well in these situations: his score to par per attempt (-0.27) ranks eighth since the start of the 2019-20 season. Sungjae Im is a remarkable 106 under par when faced with these approach shots the last two seasons, 12 shots better than any other player. In a statistical testament to how often he plays, though, he's also had 38 more attempts than anyone else in that span (Im ranks 24th of 185 players in score to par per attempt, at -0.25). Almost every course in professional golf has its own defining characteristics, whether visually, architecturally, or when diving into the numbers. Longer approach shots into greens are a trend to keep an eye on this week at Bay Hill.

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The PGA TOUR travels stateside for this week’s tournament, The RSM Classic in St. Simons Island, Georgia. The first two days of the tournament at Sea Island Resort will have a split field on both the Plantation course and the Seaside course. After Friday’s cut, the remainder of the tournament will be played on the Seaside course, which measures just over 7,000 yards, will play as a par 70 and be putt on Bermuda greens. The tree-lined Plantation course, which is more inland, will play as a par 72 and measure a little over 7,000 yards as well. RELATED: Course, field preview: The RSM Classic | Power Rankings | Expert Picks Last season, Seaside played as the 16th easiest course in scoring relative to par, and the Plantation course ranked as the 12th easiest. Both sit fairly close to the coast and can be subject to windy conditions, which happened during the second round of last year’s tournament. Average Friday scores on both courses totaled 71.02. Similar to last week, golfers shouldn’t have a hard time padding their fairway and greens hit in regulation stats, both are well over the TOUR average. Seaside registered an average of 71% fairways hit in regulation and 74% in greens in regulation. We should be focusing on the Seaside course this week with the majority of rounds being played there, and par 4 scoring should be at the top of our list when considering who to roster. If you want to dive deeper, par 4 scoring on holes between 400 to 450 yards will be even more important with eight holes on Seaside measuring within this distance range. We also should be looking at golfers who do well with their wedges, as 20% of all approach shots came from 125 to 150 yards. Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green will be the most important statistic to prioritize when building our lineups; golfers who’ve finished inside the top five gained more than twice the amount with their irons as they did in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. We’ll keep the trend going with focusing on par 5 scoring and driving accuracy again this week. TOP VALUES HARRIS ENGLISH ($10,000) English should continue his strong play in Sea Island after a top-five finish at the Mayakoba Golf Classic in Mexico. Much of it was done with his irons, averaging 72% of greens in regulation. He’s missed the cut here twice in the past four years, so in order to do well he’ll need to lean on his strong iron play and his ability to score on par 4s measuring between 400 to 450 yards. The good thing is he ranks first in par 4 efficiency from 400 to 450 yards over his past six tournaments. SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER ($9,200) Scheffler was a popular play early in the swing season and should get our attention again in Georgia. Scheffler dominated on the Korn Ferry Tour last season with 10 top-10s, a couple of second-place finishes and two wins (Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship and Evans Scholars Invitational). Although he couldn’t get anything going down in Mexico, he still shot three rounds in the 60s and has made all six of his cuts on the PGA TOUR this season. DENNY McCARTHY ($8,600) McCarthy quietly has been great in the swing season with two top-10s, a top-15 and six straight made cuts. He’s putting extremely well, gaining close to five strokes on the greens in his past 10 tournaments en route to his solid finishes. He shot two rounds in the 60s last week but scorched the back-nine in his final round, carding four birdies and an eagle. He’ll look to take his momentum to Sea Island and feel confident in his ability to score on par 4s, ranking fifth in par 4 scoring, seventh in par 4 efficiency from 400 to 450 yards and first in overall birdie or better percentage in his past six tournaments. XINJUN ZHANG ($7,300) Zhang has made five straight cuts and should be excited to get on a course where his strong iron play can excel. Zhang ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green and ninth in birdie or better percentage over his past 24 rounds. He made the cut back in 2018 and should keep his solid play going on this coastal course. KYLE STANLEY ($7,200) He’ll be a nice value play at his price, especially with him ranking first in par 4 wfficiency 400 to 450 yards over his past six tournaments. He also ranks second in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green over the same timeframe and hasn’t lost strokes in 11 of his past 12 tournaments with his irons. He struggles on Bermuda, but if he has an average week on the greens this week, he should be able to make the cut and do well on a course he’s had decent finishes at in the past. Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game. 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SAN DIEGO – Rory McIlroy is done with conservative thinking on the golf course. He’s done with trying to fit a square peg self in a round hole. He’s done with worrying about where he sits in the world rankings. Of course he came to this realization late last season after missing the cut at The Open Championship in Ireland. And from that point on McIlroy would find a new groove and push on to win the FedExCup. It’s incredible given he’d already won twice prior in 2019 including at THE PLAYERS Championship. And the start to the new 2019-20 season did not slow things down either as he claimed the World Golf Championships–HSBC Champions in China. After some time off for the holidays, the 18-time PGA TOUR winner has not pulled back from his new aggressive mindset. He will continue to go down the new mental path he has forged, knowing it is his best chance to be the first player to earn the FedExCup trophy in back-to-back seasons and the first to win it three times. RELATED: Tee Times | Power Rankings | Expert Picks “It doesn’t serve me as a golfer to try to be careful, to try to play conservatively or the way maybe some other people play,â€� McIlroy explained of his lessons learned at Royal Portrush last year. “I have my own style of play and most of the times it works, sometimes it doesn’t, but sometimes I get into situations and I become a little too conservative and I become a little too careful. “I basically said to myself after Portrush, ‘I’m 30 years old, I have basically achieved everything that I’ve wanted to achieve in the game, like why would I be careful?’ Why would I not go out there with the most carefree attitude and think everything beyond this is just gravy. That’s something that I’ve learned, that’s a mindset that I’m going to try to replicate each and every time that I tee it up.â€� This mindset will also mean McIlroy will approach the major championships differently in 2020. He has obvious desired to win a fifth major, and first since 2014. A win at the Masters would clinch a career grand slam. “When I look back at the majors that I’ve won and I’ve done well in, I’ve always started well,â€� McIlroy says. “Sometimes you go out in the first draw and you’re trying to sort of play your way in the golf tournament, make a few pars, play sort of protective golf a little bit and that’s never really been in my nature. I’m the other way, right? I start aggressively, and if I do and I play well, I usually keep myself up there in the tournament for the most part. “So it was just slow starts for the most part that held me back last year and that’s something that I’m going to try to improve on this year.â€� McIlroy can overtake Brooks Koepka as the No. 1 player in the world again if he wins this week at the Farmers Insurance Open, where he was T5 a year ago. But that is a number he says is not even on his list of goals. Instead he looks at figures like what he achieved last season statistically. He was just the fourth player to finish a PGA TOUR season ranked inside the top 25 in all four Strokes Gained stats (Off-the-Tee, Approach-the-Green, Around-the-Green and Putting). “When I set myself goals, I set myself goals like – I want to be plus‑one strokes gained approach play… it’s all about the process, it’s all about the game, it’s all about trying to make improvements,â€� McIlroy said. “If I do that and I achieve those goals, then hopefully inevitably I get to (world No. 1). The two stats that I have been proudest of over the past year were around the green and putting; I made huge strides in those. For me going forward, I’ve always driven it well, I’ve always hit my irons pretty well, but if I can keep those two around the green and on the greens as strong as I did last year, I’ll be pretty confident about the season.â€� With all this confidence brimming from the Northern Irishman one wonders if there are any challenges he is concerned about as he moves on from being the player of the last decade into this new one. Life always throws curveballs and being relatively recently married McIlroy may one day be tasked with juggling children of his own with his career. This is something many TOUR pros acknowledge can be a steep learning curve. McIlroy, though, has his eyes on the course. “If you look at when I first came out on TOUR and started winning majors, nearly a decade ago, eight years ago, you could probably count the guys on one hand that played a similar game to the way I played. I think that was part of the reason why I did so well in that stretch,â€� McIlroy says. “Now the likes of a Matt Wolff – they grew up obviously watching Tiger a little bit but (also) watching guys like myself and Dustin and that’s the type of player that’s coming out on TOUR now. So where I used to get to the golf course and think, okay, maybe five or 10 people have a chance, nowadays it’s 40, 50, 60 guys that play that sort of game. “That’s going to be the biggest challenge going forward over the next 10 years. There’s always fresh blood coming through and new talent. It’s trying to keep up with them.â€� With this aggressive and fresh outlook, you have to think McIlroy won’t have a problem with that.

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