Monday Finish: Bryson DeChambeau wins Rocket Mortgage his way

At the halfway point of the THE PLAYERS, Webb Simpson has built himself a 5-shot lead after a dazzling 9-under par 63. It could have been even better for Simpson if not for an errant tee shot that found the water on the island green 17th, ultimately leading to a double bogey. Given this unique circumstance of one player finding himself five clear of an otherwise bunched leaderboard, it is difficult to intuitively come up with accurate win probabilities without the use of a statistical model. Here are the top 10 win probabilities according to our model as we head into the weekend: As expected, Webb Simpson is the heavy favorite with a 50 percent chance of becoming THE PLAYERS champion. This is obviously due in large part to the lead he has built, but another important factor is how highly our model rates Simpson, who it estimates to be the 17th strongest player in the field. Moving down we see two big names in Jason Day and Dustin Johnson, who despite being positioned T8 and T11 respectively, each carry sizable win probabilities. This is not surprising given our model estimates them both to be more than 2 shots better per round than an average PGA TOUR player. It was also an exciting day around the cutline. In the end, 80 players finished at 1 under par or better and will advance to play the weekend. This excitement can be characterized nicely through the cut probability evolution of Tiger Woods, who ended up making the cut on the number:   At the time of finishing his round Woods was tied for 64th, but with the course playing relatively easy at the time, he only had a 47 percent chance of making the cut. Luckily for Woods, the course toughened up for the afternoon wave, which at one point boosted his chance of making the cut to 95 percent. Things then got very interesting. Toward the end of play birdies were in abundance for the remaining players on the course, so much so that at one point Woods fell to T72 and outside the cutline. The model wasn’t to be fooled though, as it still gave him a 66 percent probability of making the cut given how difficult the finishing holes were playing. In the end the model estimates were accurate as TPC Sawgrass reminded us all of what may be to come on Sunday, as a host of the TOUR’s best players stumbled down the finishing stretch to move the cutline back to minus 1. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the THE PLAYERS Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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Here are nine tidbits from the second round of the BMW Championship gamers can use tomorrow, this weekend or down the road. Aronimink Golf Club just outside Philadelphia plays 7,267 yards to Par-70. PAIN OR GAIN These were the top-10 selected golfers in the PGA TOUR Fantasy One & Done presented by SERVPRO: A poor weather forecast forced tee times to start at 7 am in Round 2. The wet conditions overnight slowed the greens down and players had to adjust. The magic number in Round 2 was also 62 after a pair of them in Round 1. Remember, there isn’t a cut so everyone will have a chance in the final 36 holes to catch up. X Cellent After Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy flirted with 59 yesterday it’s hardly a surprise that not many noticed Xander Schauffele and his 63. Sure he was solo third but he didn’t belong on the same podium after 18 holes as the two legends. Friday he backed up his 63 with seven more birdies against just one bogey for 64 and a total of 127 (-13) for a two-shot lead over Justin Rose. His named was mentioned as a long-shot selection on the Ryder Cup team if he had a big week this week. He’s halfway home. People’s Choice Justin Rose has won on this course before when it hosted the AT&T National in 2010 and was T15 the following year. It’s hardly a secret that he loves golf in the Philadelphia area as he won the 2013 U.S. Open at Merion. The Englishman moved up 10 spots after signing for a bogey-free 63 to finish on 11-under. Rose has gained almost four shots on the field tee-to-green and four more around-the green. Imagine if he starts dialing in his irons! Rounds of the Day Kevin Na was all over my radar last week after three great rounds at Ridgewood to open the FedExCup Playoffs. His 70-75 MC last week was tough to take as were his five birdies and five bogeys to open Round 1. After a bogey-free 62 that included eight birdies, I’m fully back on board! Tying the course record after an even-par 70 didn’t even put him in the top 10. … Tommy Fleetwood also moved up 37 spots on the leaderboard after a bogey-free 62 that included eight birdies. Opening with 71, the Englishman needed a low one to get back into the mix and will start Round 2 T20. Trifecta Fantasy golf tests the patience of gamers and their beliefs. Bryson DeChambeau was looking to go where NOBODY has gone before in winning three consecutive FedExCup Playoff events this week. He still has a chance but he’s going to need to leapfrog 47 players who are ahead of him or share the same three-under total. Not much is going right this week as he’s in the bottom half of every Strokes-Gained category but the silver lining is he’s No. 1 in proximity. Wrong Hot Guy Gamers looking to ride the lava wave of heat from the first two FedExCup events had three choices, if available, this week. DeChambeau was the obvious but the only other players to hit the top 10 in the first two events were Cameron Smith and Tony Finau. Smith hit the podium in the first two events and caught the eye of many this week. He’s made three birdies this week and is T66 in a field of 69. The good news for investors this week is there isn’t a cut. Hi, Hideki The contrarians who chose not to saddle Hideki Matsuyama for his three-peat opportunity at TPC Scottsdale might just get their reward this week. I’ve pointed out over the last month that I thought he was close to popping but he’s just been a round short in each event. He’s off to a flying start as he backed up his opening-round 66 with seven birdies against only one bogey for 64 in Round 2. Sitting T3 and just three back, he needs a solid finish to hold his place in the Top 30. Sitting T3 and just three back, he should be concerned with winning the golf tournament. Bubble Boys What a difference a day makes! Two more to go! The top 30 will advance to the next round of the FedExCup Playoffs next week at East Lake Golf Club. Here’s how the guys under the gun are performing: Study Hall Round 1 played under-par at 68.130 (-1.870) with 48 of 69 rounds under-par. Round 2 checked in at 67.333 (-2.667) as only six players were above par. … After four bogey-free rounds Thursday the total bumped to 13 after Round 2. … Schauffele and Keegan Bradley (T3) have birdied 15 of the first 36 holes. … Of the top 10 players in Strokes-Gained: Approach-the-Green eight are T7 or better. The other two are T12.

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Tony Finau feels better, and he is thankful for that. With his health and his game improving, he has his eyes set on the Masters.

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