Seriously. How good have the FedExCup Playoffs been so far! The cream is certainly rising to the top as the battle heats up for the coveted FedExCup to be won in Atlanta in a few weeks’ time. You only need to look at the fact that the top five players in the FedExCup race are the same five names who occupy the top five places in the Official World Golf Rankings to know how tough it’s going to be to claim the $10 million. If you want to be in the hunt at East Lake, you better bring your absolute best, because you need to beat the best. So let’s have a look at who is likely to be in the mix for the big prize, and while we are at it, check in on our preseason bold predictions to see just how close, or how far off the mark we were in 2016-17. In week one of the Playoffs at THE NORTHERN TRUST we had Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth in a haymaker throwing epic that went an extra hole before Johnson prevailed. Spieth, Justin Thomas and Marc Leishman then turned up at the Dell Technologies Championship to throw some final-round birdie barrages into the entertainment, with Thomas coming out on top. Spieth now has the lead in the race to the FedExCup, effectively securing the all-important spot in the top 5 for Atlanta. Those in the top 5 at East Lake control their own destiny. Win the TOUR Championship and they win the FedExCup. A place in Atlanta is certainly its own big reward. Those who earn their way into the playoff finale of course all have a mathematical chance of winning the FedExCup. And they will have locked up spots in the Masters, U.S. Open, Open Championship, three World Golf Championship events, THE PLAYERS Championship and the invitational events on TOUR for 2017-18. This year Thomas is now second, Johnson third. They look pretty good to also keep a spot in the top 5 by Atlanta. Hideki Matsuyama, the regular season leader is now fourth with Jon Rahm pushing into fifth spot. These two will be looking to play well at the BMW Championship in Chicago to claim the last two coveted spots. For five seasons running the winner of the FedExCup arrived at the TOUR Championship inside the top 6 on the standings. You could say it is trending. But there are plenty or worthy challengers for the season long title lining up behind the big guns. Given that the most players to ever play their way in from outside the top 30 in the penultimate tournament is four, we can comfortably say the next 15 players would be very unlucky not to be part of the field in Atlanta. Rickie Fowler, Marc Leishman, Paul Casey, Brooks Koepka, Pat Perez, Daniel Berger, Charley Hoffman, Jhonattan Vegas, Kevin Kisner, Brian Harman, Adam Hadwin, Justin Rose, Matt Kuchar, Kyle Stanley and Kevin Chappell must be feeling pretty good headed to Chicago. They won’t be subject to the pressure of extending their seasons and as such can chase down a spot in the top five. Those ranked 21st to 30th certainly can’t rest on their laurels. Just ask Fowler, who was 22nd heading into the BMW Championship last year, finished 59th, and dropped to 31st, missing East Lake by .57 of a point. Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed, Russell Henley, Louis Oosthuizen, Jason Dufner, Henrik Stenson, Brendan Steele, Jason Day, Gary Woodland and bubble boy Bill Haas occupy those spots. Stenson and Haas have of course won the FedExCup before, with Haas winning it from all the way down in 25th place in 2011. That leaves us with those on the outside looking in. History says that at best four of them can play their way in, although it is mathematically possible for many more of them to do it. Who would the best candidates be? Clearly 31-40 has the advantage of being close to the cut off. Winners this year in Mackenzie Hughes, Xander Schauffele, Hudson Swafford and Sergio Garcia lead that list. Phil Mickelson is 36th. He’s won at East Lake before. Billy Horschel, another former FedExCup champion, is 38th. PLAYERS champion Si Woo Kim is 45th. Defending FedExCup champion Rory McIlroy is 51st. The winner at Conway Farms in 2013, Zach Johnson, is 54th. If the first two FedExCup Playoff events were our guide, we are in for two more epic battles to find the answers. And now for some fun. Before a ball was hit in anger last October we made our 18 bold (and not so bold) predictions. Let’s see how we have gone. 18. A defending champion will retain his title. Verdict: CORRECT It didn’t take long. Justin Thomas defended at the CIMB Classic in just the second week of the season. Hideki Matsuyama also defended at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Daniel Berger repeated at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. And the Jhonattan Vegas reclaimed the RBC Canadian Open. 17. Dustin Johnson will win again. Verdict: CORRECT For the 10th year in a row since coming out on TOUR, Dustin Johnson claimed at least one win. He’s already got four this year. He claimed the World Golf Championships slam by claiming the Dell Technologies Match Play and then provided one of the drives of the year to win THE NORTHERN TRUST in a playoff. 16. Kevin Chappell finally breaks through. Verdict: CORRECT After 180 starts on the PGA TOUR Chappell indeed became a winner, taking out the Valero Texas Open with a clutch putt on the 72nd hole leaving him a shot clear of the eventual U.S. Open champion Brooks Koepka. He’d had four runner up results last season so it was a very popular win. Chappell took his form all the way to a Presidents Cup berth. 15. Steven Bowditch turns his game around. Verdict: INCORRECT In 27 starts this season Bowditch made just two cuts and he finished T58 and T64 in those efforts. The two-time TOUR winner did however welcome his first child during the season, so in our minds that’s a winning year! The Australian will attempt to resurrect things from the past champion category next season. For the record, I’m prepared to double down and say he will come good. 14. Expect an albatross at THE PLAYERS Championship. Verdict: CORRECT No one had ever made an albatross on the par-5 16th hole at TPC Sawgrass prior but Spain’s Rafa Cabrera Bello made history with a beautiful strike during the final round at THE PLAYERS. It was a phenomenal 8-iron that traveled 181 yards to pay dirt, kicking off a downslope short of the putting surface and finding its way to the bottom of the cup. It was just the third albatross in PLAYERS history behind Hunter Mahan’s sensational effort on the par-5 11th in round two of 2007 and Peter Lonard’s sublime shot on the par-5 second in the third round of the same year. “Obviously, it was pretty spectacular,� Cabrera Bello said. 13. Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau will live up to high expectations. Verdict: CORRECT. Rahm won the Farmers Insurance Open and was a finalist at the World Golf Championship – Dell Technologies Match Play and runner up at the DEAN & DELUCA Invitational. He’s had nine top 10s. Oh, and he won in Europe. As stated above, he’s moved into the top 5 players in the world. DeChambeau was T2 at the Puerto Rico Open but really found his way with a win at the John Deere Classic. His offbeat style is finding a home on TOUR. 12. Two players will challenge 58; one will shoot 59. Verdict: (Basically) CORRECT. Two players did challenge 58 this season but both shot 59. Justin Thomas and Adam Hadwin joined the exclusive club with incredible performances. We also had a couple of 60s at the Barbasol Championship. 11. Three of the four majors will be won by previous major winners. Verdict: INCORRECT. Well, we were way off here as the trend for first-time major winners continued for most the season. Sergio Garcia had his awesome Masters breakthrough. Brooks Koepka officially made us wrong at the U.S. Open. Jordan Spieth gave us a little respect at The Open Championship before Justin Thomas kept the new guys trend running at the PGA Championship. 10. Thomas Pieters will earn special temporary membership. Verdict: CORRECT Pieters did not need long. In his first four starts, he finished inside the top 14 in three of them including a T2 and T5. He was T4 on his Masters debut. And fourth at the WGC – Bridgestone Invitational. This guy is the real deal. 9. Phil Mickelson ends his drought. Verdict: He’s teasing us again, but running out of time. Five top 10s this season, including one just last week in Boston, prove the veteran still has what it takes to compete. But given he’s 36th in the FedExCup the BMW Championship might be his last chance. He’s won at East Lake before so if he can just get there … 8. Andrew “Beef� Johnston wins a trophy and fills it with Arby’s sandwiches. Verdict: INCORRECT We really wanted this one to come true but unfortunately it was more “Where’s the Beef� this season. Just one top 10 in 13 starts. 7. Seven of the 50 Web.com Tour grads will win tournaments. Verdict: CORRECT We smashed this one. Cody Gribble, MacKenzie Hughes, Rod Pampling, D.A. Points, Wesley Bryan, Grayson Murray, Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Smith and Xander Schauffele made it nine wins on the season from graduates. It was an impressive year for the boys. 6. Team International finally wins The Presidents Cup. Verdict: Have to wait on this one. It is going to take an almighty effort from the International boys at Liberty National later this month as the U.S. team is looking very good with plenty of young blood eager to succeed. But the boys from the rest of the world are very keen to win for the first time since 1998. Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Adam Scott, Louis Oosthuizen, Charl Scwartzel, Marc Leishman, Branden Grace, Jhonattan Vegas, Si Woo Kim and Adam Hadwin are the automatic qualifiers with the chance to make history. 5. Patrick Reed becomes a top-5 player. Verdict: INCORRECT Reed failed to fully kick on from his Ryder Cup heroics late last year but he has shown some promise of late. Although winless this season his last three starts are top 20s including a runner up at the PGA Championship and T6 in Boston. 4. Jason Day will win the FedExCup and Player of the Year. Verdict: INCORRECT Of course Day can still win the FedExCup, as he sits 28th at the moment, but even if he’s able to do that it is very doubtful he’d win Player of the Year. That award is being fought out by five-time winner Justin Thomas, four-time winner Dustin Johnson and possibly three-time winner Jordan Spieth. Day is winless this season and has dropped from No. 1 in the world to ninth. A cancer diagnosis for his mother took its toll early in the season but he’s shown signs of life in the later months. 3. Sergio Garcia finally wins a major. Verdict: CORRECT We are just going to show you exactly what we wrote last October: “It is time. One for the ages. After years of heartache and pain, the Spanish sensation will recapture some of his best and bring it out at a major. Of course there will be heart attack moments. Garcia will not make it easy on himself or the fans. But at a critical moment, when in the past it has all gone wrong, it will go right. And even those who have enjoyed the Spanish sorrows will tip a glass to the drought-breaker.� We are pretty proud of that prediction. 2. Sam Saunders wins a TOUR event, possibly as a sponsor invite. Verdict: INCORRECT Man, we were riding this one hard a few times. A T5 at Puerto Rico. T11 at RBC Heritage. An emotional tilt at the RBC Canadian Open. A good chance at the Barracuda Championship … Arnold Palmer’s grandson flirted with the win we all wanted to see but ultimately fell short. He missed the FedExCup Playoffs by four spots, at least securing conditional status next season. And he’s started well in the Web.com Tour finals as well. 1.Tiger Woods claims career win No. 80. Verdict: INCORRECT Well, he basically didn’t even play so we were always in deep trouble on this one. After missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, Woods underwent further back surgery and we haven’t seen him on course since. The good news is he was given the all clear to begin some short game work last week and maybe we will see him again soon. So we ended up batting at .500 with the chance to jag a few more in these last few weeks. Not outstanding but still reasonable. Look out for the teams new bold predictions in the lead up to the 2017-18 season.
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