Matt Kuchar’s valuable Olympic sock

Separating Factor One way of measuring a player’s ability to assemble rounds that separate him or her from the competition is to look at the percentage of the time he gains a large amount of strokes against the field in one specific discipline. For example, players gain a full stroke or more over the field with their approach shots about 27% of the time overall. Collin Morikawa, however, does that 55% of the time. Morikawa is the PGA TOUR leader in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last two seasons, at 1.13 per round. Zalatoris has flashed the ability to separate himself from the field via his approach play over the last two seasons. He gains more than one stroke with his approach play in 41.7% of his rounds since the beginning of last season, the fifth-highest rate on TOUR in that span. Zalatoris has gained three or more strokes on the field with his approach play in 9.2% of his rounds – that is more than three times the TOUR average (3.0%) over the last 2 seasons. Long Iron Advantage The best players in the world are able to make marginal gains over the field in myriad ways. One of the key places where Zalatoris makes those gains is on long approach shots, where he is consistently better than the competition. Over the last two seasons, Zalatoris is ranked 11th on the PGA TOUR in average proximity on approach shots outside 200 yards. Will’s average of 46 feet, 7 inches from that range may not seem overwhelming on the surface, but consider this: that’s more than 6 feet better than the PGA TOUR average. From 175-200 yards away, he’s more than 2 feet better than the TOUR average over the last two seasons. Breaking it down to shots from 200-225 yards out, he’s 4 feet, 5 inches better than the average. These add up over the course of a tournament, especially at a place like Bay Hill Club & Lodge, a venue that has yielded more approaches from outside 200 yards than any other PGA TOUR venue over the last 5 seasons. Due for a Breakthrough? The PGA TOUR has seen a wave of first-time winners early in 2022. Four of the last five winners on TOUR have been first-timers, the first time we have seen that happen since the fall of 2017. This is the first calendar year in which there were four first-time winners before March 1st since all the way back in 2002. It’s not unprecedented for a first-time winner to emerge from the traditionally strong fields at Bay Hill, as both Matt Every (2014) and Tyrrell Hatton (2020) have claimed their maiden PGA TOUR titles at this tournament in recent years. With underlying metrics that predict big-time success, that breakthrough win could come this week for Zalatoris. Last April, casual sports fans were introduced in grand fashion to wiry Will Zalatoris. Zalatoris had all phases of his game clicking in his Masters debut: he ranked fourth in the field that week in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, second in greens in regulation (73.6%) and fifth in Strokes Gained: Putting. His solo runner-up finish was the best by a player in his Masters debut since Dan Pohl in 1982. But golf fans in the know had been attuned to Zalatoris’ ascent for some time. In each of his first five Korn Ferry Tour starts after the pandemic hiatus, Zalatoris finished T6 or better. In the extended 2020-21 Korn Ferry Tour season, Zalatoris ranked first in scoring average, ball striking and the all-around ranking. A T6 at the U.S. Open in the fall of 2020 further cemented Zalatoris’ status as a name on the rise. Zalatoris played his way off the Korn Ferry Tour months earlier than anticipated and propelled himself to the Arnold Palmer Award, given to the TOUR’s top rookie, in 2021. Just how good has Zalatoris been in his young pro career, and why has he exceled? Twenty First Group dove into the numbers. Elite Ball Striker There are 177 players with 50 or more rounds measured by PGA TOUR ShotLink since the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot began. Among that group, Zalatoris has generated some of the most impressive and consistent tee-to-green statistics. He ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach, trailing only Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas and Paul Casey. He’s fifth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, narrowly behind reigning FedExCup champion Patrick Cantlay in that statistic. He’s sixth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in that span, a statistic that isolates performance off the tee and on approach shots. When narrowing the focus to just this season, the numbers are even more impressive. Zalatoris leads the TOUR in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (1.93) and Strokes Gained: Approach (1.22) per round. He’s currently ninth in greens in regulation (74.6%) and has more than doubled his amount of Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round so far this season compared to last. Improvement on the greens could elevate Zalatoris into superstardom: so far this season, he’s making below the TOUR average on putts from 4-8 feet, inside 10 feet and from 10-15 feet.

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With the season’s final major championship right around the corner, only seven PGA TOUR events remain before the beginning of the lucrative FedExCup Playoffs. Several postseason stalwarts find themselves in precarious spots with less than two months to go in the Regular Season. As marquee names jockey for position down the stretch, Twenty First Group ran more than 10,000 simulations of how the rest of the PGA TOUR regular season would play out to project the likelihood of different points scenarios unfolding. The projection gives newly-minted major winner Jon Rahm the best chance at leading the FedExCup race entering THE NORTHERN TRUST (36.3%), with current FedExCup leader Patrick Cantlay right behind him (32.8%). RELATED LINKS: Twenty First Group | FedExCup standings The math says that currently, 100 of 125 spots in the standings are projected to be taken. The most intrigue lies with the remaining 20 percent of the spots still up for grabs. Here are some of the more interesting probabilities the mathematical projections unearthed: Rickie Fowler Current FedExCup position: 114 Probability of reaching Playoffs: 73.3% Strong finishes at the PGA Championship (T8) and the Memorial Tournament (T11) moved Fowler from outside the playoff picture to firmly inside the top 125. Twenty First Group probability models now have Fowler at a better than 73 percent chance to reach the FedExCup Playoffs. Fowler’s marked recent improvement can’t just be tied to one particular statistic. Entering the PGA Championship, he was averaging +0.22 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green per round, and -0.39 Strokes Gained: Putting per round. In his last four starts, he’s gaining more than half-a-stroke per round in both statistics. Fowler has qualified for the FedExCup Playoffs every full season he’s been on TOUR (since 2010). Chesson Hadley Current FedExCup position: 116 Probability of reaching Playoffs: 55.8% Hadley’s season is a perfect example of how one week can change the narrative of an entire season. The lanky TOUR veteran has missed 13 cuts in 21 starts entering this week’s John Deere Classic, but a runner-up finish at the Palmetto Championship in June has him in a great position to make the FedExCup Playoffs for the fifth time in his career. More than 42% of Hadley’s FedExCup points for the 2020-2021 PGA TOUR season came that week in South Carolina. With just a few events left, can he turn an up-and-down campaign into a spot in the Playoffs? Tommy Fleetwood Current FedExCup position: 125 Probability of reaching Playoffs: 71.1% The man currently in the final qualifying spot in the standings, Tommy Fleetwood, is not in that spot due to the nature of his global schedule. On the contrary, his 15 starts this season are his most entering the month of July in his PGA TOUR career. Currently, Twenty First Group has Fleetwood at about a 71% chance to reach the Playoffs. Fleetwood has just a single top-10 finish in a stroke play event this season, a far cry from the previous three PGA TOUR seasons, when he was tenth or better in 38% of his starts. Fleetwood has not been as proficient with his driver in 2021, ranking outside the top 150 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. Still, The Open Championship – where Fleetwood finished runner-up in 2019 – presents a great opportunity to accrue the points needed to lock up a playoff spot. Dylan Frittelli Current FedExCup position: 130 Probability of reaching Playoffs: 43.8% Sitting just outside the top 125 is this week’s defending champion, Dylan Frittelli. In his 2019 John Deere Classic victory, Frittelli was lights out on and around the greens, leading the field in scrambling percentage and ranking second in Strokes Gained: Putting. Those are two statistics Frittelli has struggled with in 2021, as he’s ranked 114th in scrambling percentage and 186th in putting. After seven missed cuts in his last nine starts, the friendly confines of Sylvis, Illinois, might be just what the South African needs to right the ship. Charles Howell III Current FedExCup position: 131 Probability of reaching Playoffs: 55.1% He is one of just nine players to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs every season since its inception in 2007, but Charles Howell III has some work to do in the coming weeks if he wants to make it 15-for-15. This week’s John Deere Classic would be a good place to start a resurgence – he finished tied for sixth here in 2019 and has eight top-25 finishes in twelve previous career starts. Howell’s approach play, in particular, has betrayed him a bit this season, as he is on pace for a career-low finish in Strokes Gained: Approach (currently ranks 194th on TOUR). TPC Deere Run could be a place that turns around, through: In his last 16 rounds played at the John Deere Classic, he’s gained a strong four-tenths of a stroke on approach shots per round.

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PACIFIC PALISADES, Calif. – The pros were getting in a final tune-up before the Genesis Open teed off. Here’s a look at some of the custom clubs Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Fred Couples and more will put in play at Riviera.

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