Mad Bets: Should you bet on Tiger Woods?

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The Valspar Championship is the first PGA Tour event this year in which a shot won’t be hit. The process of taking down bleachers and scoreboards is underway. But that’s just the beginning.

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Suffice it to say that Padraig Harrington’s victory in the 2008 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale has stood the test of time even though it was challenged immediately. It was the first major that Tiger Woods missed as a professional (due to reconstructive surgery on his left knee). Of course, Woods had just won the U.S. Open and with an injured leg, so a common narrative was that Harrington’s title deserved an asterisk. Never mind that the Irishman successfully defended his 2007 victory during which Woods competed. Careful also not to be lost to manipulated memory is that Royal Birkdale was a bona fide beast. The par 70 averaged 74.869 for the week. It’s remained the hardest course in relation to par of any on the PGA TOUR since, and it’s back to host the 146th Open Championship. More on the test beneath the ranking. A Texan in the wind. First start since exhilarating finish at TPC River Highlands. Perfect in four Opens with a T4 in 2015. Second in adjusted scoring, sixth in bogey avoidance. Among notables axed at Erin Hills, the FedExCup points leader hasn’t slumped in a long time. Perfect at The Open since 2010 with five top 15s. Fifth in bogey avoidance. The Masters champ has been off since a T2 at the BMW International Open. Two seconds and another eight top 10s in The Open, including in each of the last three years. Struts in with top 10s in four of last five starts to extend form dating back much further. Leads TOUR in adjusted scoring. Ninth in both scrambling and bogey avoidance. His T4 as an amateur in 1998 at Royal Birkdale remains his best finish in 15 starts in this major. T4 in his last start at the Irish Open. Five top-four finishes worldwide in 2017. Ended a cooling with a co-runner-up at Erin Hills, and then warmed for Royal Birkdale with a T14 at the Irish Open. Eighth on TOUR in GIR and 17th in scrambling. Second in all-time earnings among non-winners (Garcia). Connected top 10s in The Open from 2012-2015. T16 at Royal Birkdale in 2008. Co-leads TOUR in par-3 scoring. Rested since U.S. Open breakthrough. No doubt brimming with confidence; back where he belongs on the stage. European experience is invaluable. Superb record in majors. Took last week off after lapping the field in Ireland. Will win majors, of course, but even he needs experience in The Open. It’s his only weakness. Placed T59 in his debut last year. Winless since lifting the Claret Jug at Muirfield in 2013, but came close in the phenomenal finish among 40-somethings last year. Strong form throughout 2017. If he has even an average week putting, he’ll be right there given the premium on ball-striking. Top 15s in The Open Championship in 2013 and 2014. Just two top 25s in 12 appearances (both were top 15s), but he’s in a groove right now. Three top 10s and another two top 20s in last five starts. Low ball flight is his weapon. Last year’s title fulfilled the long-range possibilities in this event in which he logged three top threes previously, including a T3 at Royal Birkdale in 2008. It’s kismet for the local. Since the U.S. Open, he’s gone 4th-T5-Win-T10. Leads Race to Dubai standings. Twelfth on European Tour in fairways hit, second in GIR. The latest winner on the European Tour happens to still be chasing his first top 20 in The Open. This is his sixth start. Leads PGA TOUR in strokes gained: putting. Consistently lurking for the last 12 months. Since last year’s T22 at Royal Troon, he’s registered 12 top 20s worldwide. T9 (U.S. Open) and T14 (Travelers) in last two. The Englishman has been a surprising non-factor in most of his 14 appearances, but he placed T7 here in 2008. Eight top 25s in last 10 starts. T3 on TOUR in bogey avoidance. He’s thriving in every role right now and it shows on his scorecards. Solo fourth at Royal Troon last year was a career best. Moxie trumps length at Royal Birkdale. Often under some radars, but never should be. Top 20s in five Open Championships since 2010. Maximizes limited scoring opportunities with confident putting. Converging trends don’t last nine years, but it doesn’t hurt that he’s the last winner here. Since returning from injured elbow, he’s 3-for-3 with T4 last week in Scotland. Power Rankings: The Open Championship RANK PLAYER COMMENT Tuesday’s Fantasy Insider will include Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Justin Thomas, Martin Kaymer and Thomas Pieters among the many notables. The first matter of business when sizing up any Open Championship and its venue is the weather. While it can change noticeably hour to hour (and usually more frequently), this week’s forecast is commanded by prevailing breezes off the Irish Sea due west of the course. Gradually rising daytime high temperatures will climb into the 60s. The greatest threat for rain exists on Friday and Saturday, but it can’t be ruled out at any time. The constant of strong winds will test the patience and reveal who has the mettle to overcome unlike anywhere else, but it’s worth noting that the forecast in advance of the 2008 edition was more favorable. Yet, scoring averages by round ranged from 73.78 (second round) to 75.88 (first round). For the week, the field hit an average of 48.48 percent of the greens in regulation. That’s the lowest measurement on any course since 2004. The birdie-or-better percentage, which calculates how many par breakers are converted after hitting greens in regulation, was just 18.85. That clip is the lowest recorded on any course since. This meant that the field averaged 8.72 greens in regulation per round and buried just 1.64 par breakers after lining up those opportunities. Harrington ranked T30 in GIR but second in par breakers with two eagles and 11 birdies. His 3-over 283 is the highest winning score in relation to par since the carnage at Carnoustie in 1999 when Paul Lawrie emerged from a playoff after finishing regulation in 6-over 290. Adding to the perspective at Royal Birkdale in 2008, 10-over 290 was good for fifth place even though the 36-hole cut fell at 9-over 149. Royal Birkdale tips at a modest 7,156 yards, so length off the tee is all but irrelevant. This will play like a traditional U.S. Open at which finding fairways and salvaging pars are of considerable value, not to mention experience. Both of the par 5s are on the inward side (Nos. 15 and 17) of the links course that lays out like a parkland track. The Confidence Factor on Tuesday will expand on how recent winners have captured the Claret Jug, which statistics should identify this week’s champion, notable experience in this major and the results of the 38 golfers in this week’s field who teed it up here in 2008. ROB BOLTON’S WRITING SCHEDULE PGATOUR.COM’s Fantasy Columnist Rob Bolton will be previewing both The Open Championship and Barbasol Championship. Look for the following columns this week: MONDAY: Rookie Ranking, Qualifiers, Reshuffle, Medical Extensions, Power Rankings (The Open) TUESDAY*: Power Rankings (Barbasol), Sleepers (The Open), The Confidence Factor (The Open), Fantasy Insider WEDNESDAY: One & Done (The Open), One & Done (Barbasol) THURSDAY: Ownership Percentages in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf and One & Done presented by SERVPRO * – Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO, which also publishes on Tuesdays.

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