Louis Oosthuizen leads the way after Round 1 at The Open Championship

At the halfway point of the THE PLAYERS, Webb Simpson has built himself a 5-shot lead after a dazzling 9-under par 63. It could have been even better for Simpson if not for an errant tee shot that found the water on the island green 17th, ultimately leading to a double bogey. Given this unique circumstance of one player finding himself five clear of an otherwise bunched leaderboard, it is difficult to intuitively come up with accurate win probabilities without the use of a statistical model. Here are the top 10 win probabilities according to our model as we head into the weekend: As expected, Webb Simpson is the heavy favorite with a 50 percent chance of becoming THE PLAYERS champion. This is obviously due in large part to the lead he has built, but another important factor is how highly our model rates Simpson, who it estimates to be the 17th strongest player in the field. Moving down we see two big names in Jason Day and Dustin Johnson, who despite being positioned T8 and T11 respectively, each carry sizable win probabilities. This is not surprising given our model estimates them both to be more than 2 shots better per round than an average PGA TOUR player. It was also an exciting day around the cutline. In the end, 80 players finished at 1 under par or better and will advance to play the weekend. This excitement can be characterized nicely through the cut probability evolution of Tiger Woods, who ended up making the cut on the number:   At the time of finishing his round Woods was tied for 64th, but with the course playing relatively easy at the time, he only had a 47 percent chance of making the cut. Luckily for Woods, the course toughened up for the afternoon wave, which at one point boosted his chance of making the cut to 95 percent. Things then got very interesting. Toward the end of play birdies were in abundance for the remaining players on the course, so much so that at one point Woods fell to T72 and outside the cutline. The model wasn’t to be fooled though, as it still gave him a 66 percent probability of making the cut given how difficult the finishing holes were playing. In the end the model estimates were accurate as TPC Sawgrass reminded us all of what may be to come on Sunday, as a host of the TOUR’s best players stumbled down the finishing stretch to move the cutline back to minus 1. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the THE PLAYERS Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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The elevator door opened, and in stepped 17-year-old amateur Marty Zecheng Dou. He was on his way to his hotel room. With his caddie in tow, Dou hadn’t even taken of his sunglasses and trademark bucket hat as he came directly from the course. The next morning, he would begin his PGA TOUR China Series career at Mission Hills Golf Club. Staying in the same hotel in Haikou, China was 27-year-old Xinjun Zhang, a 27-year-old professional, who had been playing golf for a mere 10 years and had obviously taken to his newfound sport and picked it up quite quickly. In that inaugural PGA TOUR China Series tournament, the Mission Hills Haikou Open, Dou and Zhang were two of 56 players from China in the field. All 56 were chasing a dream that previously seemed somewhat inaccessible: eventual PGA TOUR membership. The thought of Dou jumping on the PGA TOUR path by qualifying for the Web.com Tour, at least at that time, was something of an afterthought, considering his age and amateur status. Zhang, emboldened by how quickly his game had progressed, wanted to see what he could do. Plenty, it turned out. Although Zhang finished 10 strokes behind another teenager, South Korea’s Jeunghun Wang, he was the runner up in Wang’s tour-de-force triumph. This was just more validation to Zhang’s burgeoning career. In 2011, at the World Golf Champions-HSBC Champions, Zhang qualified for his first PGA TOUR tournament via his China Golf Association ranking and promptly went out and tied for 13th in Shanghai, finishing alongside notables Ian Poulter and Lee Westwood. Zhang tasted big-time tournament golf and liked what he had sampled. Zhang hoped that wouldn’t just be a one-off. Two years later at the same course, then-PGA TOUR Commissioner Tim Finchem announced the formation of the TOUR’s third international developmental circuit, this one named PGA TOUR China Series, a relative of the Mackenzie Tour – PGA TOUR Canada and PGA TOUR Latinoamerica. Zhang’s first thought upon learning the news was he would have a place to play in 2014, a viable option where he could chase his dream. A mere five months after Finchem’s announcement, Dou and Zhang were readying themselves for that first event at Mission Hills, the Web.com Tour just a step below the rarefied air of the PGA TOUR, awaiting if they could put strong seasons together. They did and they would. It just took a while. Dou played the Series as an amateur for most of 2014 and remained an amateur through the summer so he could play amateur events in the U.S., most notably the U.S. Amateur. He then turned pro in September after making four PGA TOUR China cuts (in four tries), including a second-place finish at the Buick Open in Guangzhou and a tie for fifth outside Shanghai, at the Lanhai Open. By the end of the season, both players had to evaluate where they were with their games. While Zhang finished second on the Order of Merit, behind countryman Haotong Li, giving him Web.com Tour membership, Zhang knew only Li was guaranteed starts on the Tour that was at one time home to 75 percent of the PGA TOUR membership. As he evaluated his game, Zhang elected to remain in China in 2015 and play one more year on PGA TOUR China rather than make the leap to America. “I felt my game wasn’t ready for the Web.com Tour, so I decided not to move to America and not play on the Web in 2015,� Zhang said at the time. That second PGA TOUR season paid dividends for both players, as this time they both earned Web.com Tour membership based on their PGA TOUR China play. Zhang was third and Dou fourth. But because of PGA TOUR schedule vagaries caused by the 2016 Summer Olympics and strong fields at the early Web.com Tour events that season as players couldn’t get into PGA TOUR tournaments, Dou and Zhang only earned entry into one tournament early in the season—the Brasil Champions. Not expecting to get into that event, both had to decline the playing opportunity because they didn’t have visas to enter Brazil. Eventually, both players, with zero dollars earned, dropped in the player priority ranking and couldn’t get into any other tournaments. Reluctantly, they returned to PGA TOUR China for what they hoped would be just one more year. In 2016, Zhang did his part, sneaking into the fifth and final spot on the Order of Merit. He failed to win a tournament for the first time in his three seasons on the circuit but the top-five finish again gave him Web.com Tour membership. This time he was ready to leave China. One of the reasons Zhang didn’t record a victory was because Dou was seemingly winning every tournament on the 2016 schedule. Dou didn’t win them all, of course, but he did take home four titles and the No. 1 spot on the Order of Merit. He was on his way, as well. On to the Web.com Tour they went, passports, visas and a hunger to ensure that 2017 would be much different, Dou making his base in Las Vegas and Zhang setting up shop in Jacksonville, practicing at nearby TPC Sawgrass. The two players planned to play the Web.com Tour early and often. Both players teed it up in all 22 of the Regular Season tournaments. Of the top-50 money-list finishers after last week’s WinCo Foods Portland Open, Dou, Zhang and South Korean Kyoung Hoon Lee were the only players to play all 22. In April, it became quite apparent how serious both players were about getting their 2017-18 PGA TOUR cards. Although eligible for the big-money European Tour events in China—the Shenzhen International and the Volvo China Open—Dou and Zhang didn’t return home and instead stayed on the Web.com Tour, both knowing every dollar would count at the end of the year. They played the United Leasing and Finance Championship in Evansville, Ind., and the El Bosque Mexico Championship in Leon. “I felt the best thing for me was to stay and play on the Web. My goal is to play on the PGA TOUR, and this is how I can accomplish that,� Dou said. Zhang clearly felt the same way, maybe more so since he had broken through at the Chitimacha Louisiana Open in March, where he placed second to winner Casey Wittenberg. That high finish put Zhang’s PGA TOUR card within reach. He was runner-up again two months later, at the weather-shortened BMW Charity Pro-Am and was in position when he tied for fourth at the Price Cutter Charity Championship, with closing rounds of 65-64-66, to lock up his PGA TOUR card. Dou didn’t have quite the consistency of Zhang but did explode on the scene in only his second tournament—finishing third at The Bahamas Great Abaco Classic, when his artistry around the greens was on full display. In 53rd place on the money list in late-July, Dou was thinking more about finishing in the top 75 on the money list so he could retain his 2018 Web.com Tour playing privileges than he was about the PGA TOUR. As players have learned on this Tour, though, one week of good play can make all the difference. Dou opened 65-67 at the Digital Ally Open outside Kansas City then finished off a sterling 61 Sunday morning at the weather-delayed tournament, firing a 66 in the final round that afternoon for the three-shot win over three players. He moved to 15th on the money list, giving him enough money to guarantee the PGA TOUR card he’d been gunning for ever since he was a kid. “It’s very exciting. It’s like a dream come true since I was young, wanting to be on the PGA TOUR,� said Dou, who goes by the first name of Marty when he’s in the U.S., Zecheng in China. “It’s been 12 years of practice and a lot of hard work. It takes a great amount of effort, and you have to give up a lot of your own things, your hobbies. You have to spend most of your time at the golf course.� Dou admitted that despite the success, this has been his most difficult year as either an amateur or professional since it has taken him away from his native China. It’s important to note that Dou only left his teenage years behind in January, and when he arrived on the Web.com Tour, he didn’t have a driver’s license. “I just tried to bring that type of confidence I had on PGA TOUR China to this Tour. And it worked out here a couple of weeks ago when I won,� he added. “I think without PGA TOUR China, I wouldn’t have made it this far.� Zhang says the same thing. A decade ago, he had accepted a security guard job at a golf course near his home. He eventually picked up a club and tried the sport. And 10 years later, here he is. For Dou, what he’s accomplished has always been a dream since he was still in grade school. Zhang comes at it a little differently; it’s still hard for him to imagine where golf has taken him. “I never thought this could happen when I first started playing. Then I had a chance to play PGA TOUR China, and I thought that maybe my ability was good enough for me to play at that high level,� said Zhang. Although they are 10 years apart, Zhang married with a child and Dou single, with a girlfriend who plays collegiate golf at the University of Minnesota, the two will begin their PGA TOUR journey together, a part of history as they become the first players from China to make it to the PGA TOUR. Zhang and Dou weren’t in attendance at that Tim Finchem press conference four years ago. But they have proven his words prescient: “The growth of the game is driven first and foremost by the development of elite players who perform at a unique level. Having the opportunity to grow elite players and thus accelerate the development of elite players in China will also translate into the acceleration of the growth of the game in China.�

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PGA TOUR Statement: Health & Safety Plan Updates NEW – Change to policy re: players who test positive but are asymptomatic Since the inception of the PGA TOUR Health and Safety Plan, the TOUR’s policy for all positive test results for players and caddies requires a minimum 10-day self-isolation period, based on the Centers for Disease Control’s time-based protocols. Now that the TOUR is in week four of its Return to Golf and following several asymptomatic positive tests followed by negative tests – and after direct consultation with the CDC – we are transitioning to the CDC’s test-based model, with their support. Going forward, in accordance with CDC guidelines, a player or caddie who tests positive for COVID-19 but has not had any symptoms may return to competition if he returns two negative tests results, a minimum of 24 hours apart.  The policy change will go into effect immediately. Cameron Champ – who tested positive June 23 and had three subsequent negative tests in the 72 hours that immediately followed that positive result (24 hours apart) – has been medically cleared to play in the Rocket Mortgage Classic. As with all players, Champ will remain subject to arrival testing once on site in Detroit. He will be an addition to the field and assigned a 2:10 p.m. tee time (off of No. 10). “I am extremely grateful for the tireless efforts and conversations between the TOUR, my team and all of the experts who were consulted in order to deliver this best possible outcome,” said Champ. “It is a great example of everyone being committed to working together to adapt and evolve in this constantly changing environment. I would especially like to thank my fellow players for their support and cannot wait to tee it up with them in Detroit tomorrow!” PGA TOUR players Harris English and Chad Campbell, and Korn Ferry Tour players Brandon Wu and Jonathan Hodge – who tested positive earlier this week but were asymptomatic – will be eligible for next week’s events, if they choose to enter a testing regime and pending they each return two negative tests results, a minimum of 24 hours apart.  NEW – Adjustment to Stipend Program and At-Home Testing Protocols In an effort to further encourage players and caddies to utilize at-home test kits, two significant changes are being made to the Stipend Program, after consultation with the Player Directors and PGA TOUR Player Advisory Council Chairman.  • To be eligible for the applicable stipend following an on-site positive test, a player or caddie returning from an off week must have completed an at-home test the week prior to returning to play. • The stipend amounts have been adjusted to make them equal for an on-site positive or an at-home positive test result.  The stipend program for an at-home positive test is applicable only to players who were eligible for the following week’s event (including the top 10 alternates), and a player or caddie will not receive a stipend if he does not follow the protocols set forth in the Participant Resource Guide / PGA TOUR Health & Safety Plan or otherwise acts in a reckless manner with respect to the protocols, including any local health department regulations that may be in effect.   The TOUR will be providing players and caddies with additional complimentary at-home test kits.  Comment from PGA TOUR Commissioner Jay Monahan “As we all learn more about how to navigate this complicated COVID-19 environment, we appreciate the continued dialogue with medical experts and with the Centers for Disease Control directly as we fine-tune our Health & Safety Plan accordingly. Today’s changes – and those announced over the past week – illustrate our commitment to preserving the health and well-being of our athletes, constituents and our impact on the communities in which we play, as well as a willingness to make medically-sound adjustments that allow our players to compete, safely. The continued success of our Return to Golf depends on that approach.” For reference, previously announced updates to Health & Safety Plan (for Rocket Mortgage Classic) • Those who travel via the TOUR-procured charter will be subject to the arrival testing procedures (nasal swab), in addition to the pre-charter test. • Player instructors have been added to the on-site testing protocol (i.e. “the bubble”). • The TOUR-sponsored fitness trailer will be on site in an effort to further control the environment where our players interact (i.e. you would be discouraged from going to off-site gyms., etc.); additionally, all occupants of the fitness trailer will be required to wear a face covering for the entirety of their time in the trailer. • The stipend policy has been updated to specify that a player will not be eligible if he has tested positive for COVID-19 after not following the safety protocols outlined in our Participant Resource Guide. • Players and caddies, along with all other individuals “inside the bubble,” will not be allowed on property until first being cleared with a negative in-market test during pre-tournament screening (previously, players and caddies could be on site to practice as they awaited their arrival testing results, but without access to any indoor facilities).  Note: due to longer turnaround times for test results on the Korn Ferry Tour, this change will not be implemented on that Tour at this time.

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