Live leaderboard: Round 1 of Valero Texas Open

Eleven months of competition culminates this weekend at the Wyndham Championship, the final event of the 2020-2021 PGA TOUR regular season. While several of the tournament favorites this week in Greensboro have long since locked up their spot in the postseason, for many, this presents the final opportunity to make a move to secure a berth at THE NORTHERN TRUST. RELATED LINKS: Twenty First Group | FedExCup Standings Last year, three players moved from outside the top-125 into the Playoffs with their performances at Sedgefield Country Club: Jim Herman, Zach Johnson and Shane Lowry. That was on par with the average to move into the top-125 the last six years, as 18 players have done it total in that span. The most movement we have seen in the final event of the season is five players, done on three different occasions (2008, 2009 and 2015). Twenty First Group predictive modeling says that 113 players have a 99.9% chance or greater of advancing to the postseason. There are 17 players with between a 20 and 80 percent chance of moving on – many of which begin this week behind the top-125 barrier. After running 10,000 simulations of this week’s Wyndham Championship, taking into account current player form, course fit and other key statistics, here are the five players with the best chance to make the leap from outside the top-125 into playoff position this weekend in North Carolina. Scott Piercy Current FedExCup Rank: 126 Top-125 Probability: 46.5% Currently just one spot out of the Playoffs, TFG projects that Scott Piercy has a better than 46 percent chance to qualify for his seventh consecutive PGA TOUR postseason. Just a week ago, Piercy sat in 144th in the points race, but a third place finish at the Barracuda Championship vaulted the veteran up the standings. It was his first top-ten finish on the TOUR in nearly 18 months. Piercy has some strong course history at Sedgefield, having made the cut in each of his last six starts in Greensboro. Since 2016, he has gained more than half-a-stroke on the field tee-to-green, per round, at this event. Piercy’s best Wyndham Championship finish was a tie for eighth place in 2010. Rickie Fowler Current FedExCup Rank: 130 Top-125 Probability: 39.1% Earlier this season, Rickie Fowler was granted a special exemption into the PGA Championship. While the decision was somewhat controversial at the time, Fowler made the most of the opportunity, finishing in a tie for eighth place at Kiawah Island. With murmurs about his exemption audible, Rickie posted his best worldwide finish in 17 months. While that week featured one type of pressure, this week will present a more omnipresent form of it. Currently five spots out of the top-125, Fowler has less than a forty percent chance of advancing to THE NORTHERN TRUST. Fowler has never missed the postseason in his PGA TOUR career, having qualified every year since 2010. A closing 65 at The Open Championship, followed by an opening 64 at the 3M Open, had Fowler backers excited for a late-season surge. But Rickie failed to break 70 in any of the last three rounds in Minnesota, and finished tied for 34th. Fowler’s only previous career start at this event was in 2016, when he finished tied for 22nd. Will he answer the bell once more? Tommy Fleetwood Current FedExCup Rank: 136 Top-125 Probability: 37.6% With top-ten finishes in more than 21 percent of his career starts on the PGA TOUR, Tommy Fleetwood has typically made the most of his stateside appearances during his career. But with one event left in the 2021 regular season, Fleetwood finds himself on the outside looking in at the FedExCup Playoffs. Fleetwood’s most significant statistical dip this season has come in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, where he’s dropped from 24th to 153rd. Now 35th in the Official World Golf Ranking, Fleetwood is averaging 7.2 yards less off the tee this season compared to last. Considering that, maybe Sedgefield is the perfect layout for a resurgent week for the Englishman: winners of the Wyndham Championship since 2010 rank about 14 percent lower in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee than the PGA TOUR average during that span. Justin Rose Current FedExCup Rank: 138 Top-125 Probability: 34.5% Less than two-and-a-half years removed from being the number one ranked player in the world, Justin Rose is in an unfamiliar spot this week at the Wyndham Championship. Currently 13 spots out of the Playoffs, Rose is down nearly 100 spots this season compared to last in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (from 69th to 167th). Despite that, Rose has played his best golf in some of the biggest spots of the year. His two top-ten finishes on the PGA TOUR this season have both come at major championships: at the Masters, where he held the outright 36-hole lead, and the PGA Championship, where he closed with 67 to vault into a tie for eighth. Needing a big week in North Carolina, can the 10-time TOUR winner find that form again? Nate Lashley Current FedExCup Rank: 127 Top-125 Probability: 29.9% When Nate Lashley missed the cut last week at the Barracuda Championship, it moved him outside the top-125 in the FedExCup points race for the first time since last September. Now on the outside looking in, Lashley will need to avoid a fourth straight missed cut in order to qualify for the postseason. Thankfully for Lashley, his win at the 2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic will keep him on TOUR for next season, regardless of how he plays in Greensboro. Lashley made his debut at the Wyndham Championship in 2020, opening with 66 before ultimately finishing 77th. He will try to recapture that opening round performance this week and move on to the postseason.

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With a stated goal to return to No. 1 in the world, Jason Day reached the second position in the FedExCup with a two-stroke victory at the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club on Sunday. Welcome to the Monday Finish, where Day became the fourth multiple winner on TOUR this season after Patton Kizzire, Justin Thomas and Bubba Watson. FIVE OBSERVATIONS 1. Day: ‘I’ve obviously got a lot of work to do’ When was the last time the winner said that? Day, 30, knew better than anyone that he was saved by his otherworldly short game, taking a tidy 22 putts in the final round.   He was off the mark from tee to green. His driving accuracy (42.86 percent) was well off his driving accuracy for the week (48.21), and so was his greens-in-regulation percentage (44.44 compared to 56.94 percent). Such imprecise play may be hard to overcome at the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass, as THE PLAYERS Championship winner two years ago well knows. “Obviously, THE PLAYERS is such a huge event,â€� he said. “It feels like a major to me, and I’m sure it feels like a major to most guys. It’s really nice to be able to play pretty solid for the most part of the week [at Quail Hollow]. The short game is really nice; it’s rounding out nicely for next week. I’ve obviously got a lot of work to do over the next few days.â€� Trailing only Justin Thomas in the FedExCup, Day made big strides toward his stated goal of returning to No. 1 in the world. He moved from 14th to 7th in the Official World Golf Ranking. 2. Day touch draws raves from Mickelson Not all compliments are created equal. Considering the source, one can’t help but raise an eyebrow at short game wizard Phil Mickelson (69, T5) raving about Day’s short game. “He’s got a lot of parts of his game that’s impressive; obviously power off the tee, he’s a phenomenal driver,â€� Mickelson said. “And he’s a great putter; he’s got a very deft, soft touch. He’s one of the best putters in the game.â€� (Day’s strokes gained: putting in the final round, +3.498, was even better than his strokes gained: putting for the week, +2.061.) “So you put those two things together, and he’s not lacking in wedge play, either,â€� Mickelson added. “He’s a really good wedge player. So he’s got strengths in all the areas that he needs.â€� 3. Mickelson (69, T5) up one to third in FedExCup Lefty missed short par putts on the first two holes, but a quick tutorial from his brother, Tim, got him back on track. Now Mickelson returns to TPC Sawgrass and the site of one of the most significant victories of his career: THE PLAYERS Championship in 2007. How is he feeling about it? “It’s certainly hard to say because that golf course is very difficult, too,â€� Mickelson said. “The concern I have is that after grinding out so hard this week, that the energy level isn’t up for next week. But conversely, I’ve got a little bit of momentum from playing well after having not played for three weeks, and I’m excited to get in such a big event.â€� The World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship winner in early March, Mickelson, 47, has racked up six top-10 and nine top-25 finishes in 12 TOUR starts this season. His seven birdies in the final round at Quail tied T.J. Vogel for best in the field and gave him his eighth top-five at the Wells Fargo. No one else has more, although the Wells remains one of eight TOUR events in which he has made 10 or more starts without a victory. 4. Watney makes quantum leap Nick Watney was part of the TOUR’s elite when he made the 2011 U.S. Presidents Cup team. While the 37-year-old, former Fresno State walk-on saw his career stall due to injuries and poor play, his T2 at Quail Hollow represented a quantum leap both figuratively. Playing in the last group with Day, he looked more like the guy who won five times from 2007 to 2012, and made a giant leap up the FedExCup standings, climbing 68 spots to No. 66. “To be in the heat, last group, you know, it was really fun just kind of remembering feelings that I had in the past, and I absolutely love it,â€� Watney said. “I’m excited to try to get back again.â€� He won’t have to wait long; Watney is in the field for THE PLAYERS Championship this week. He shot an opening-round 64 and finished T4 at TPC Sawgrass in 2011. 5. Wise thrilled with T2 finish Rookie Aaron Wise has leaned on his former college golf coach, Oregon’s Casey Martin, for tips on playing the TOUR. (Tip one: Work on your short game.) The winner of the 2016 NCAA individual title, Wise also knew he had to work harder on his mental game. With his T2 at Quail, his first top-10 in 16 starts this season, he’s finally seeing the work start to pay off. “It means the world,â€� Wise said. “I’m going to gain so much confidence not only from being in contention, but being there at a place like this where you knew you were going to get a great champion. … I kept my head about me and pulled off some incredible shots.â€� Wise, 21, made four birdies and one bogey to move up 54 spots to 51st in the FedExCup. He was playing for not just his first victory at Quail, but also a berth in THE PLAYERS Championship. While he didn’t quite punch his ticket to TPC Sawgrass, he was reminded of his tremendous upside. He also said he drew inspiration from a surprising source: NBA star LeBron James. “Me and my caddie actually talked about it,â€� Wise said. “We made the turn going to 10; it’s that crunch time, it’s like second half with LeBron. It’s an attitude you have to carry with yourself that you can get it done, and I was able to do that today.â€� FIVE INSIGHTS 1. Day has now converted seven of 14 third-round leads/co-leads into victories, including THE PLAYERS Championship two years ago, and is six for his last seven at closing the deal. He led the field in strokes gained: around the green, thanks in part to his 15 sand saves in 16 chances. He also was second in the field in strokes gained: putting, needed 101 strokes on the greens for the week, and just 22 on Sunday. 2. No need to look far for the most pivotal moment of this Wells Fargo. The 231-yard, par-3 17th was the hardest hole of the final round (3.573), but Day, with just a 7-iron, clanked his tee shot off the stick. His deuce was one of just three birdies there Sunday. 3. Masters champion Patrick Reed (67-69 weekend, solo eighth) has now racked up six straight top-10 finishes on TOUR. 4. Bizarre stat of the week: Quail Hollow Club member Johnson Wagner eagled Nos. 14 and 15 in the first round to become just the second player to record back-to-back eagles this season. A few hours later, John Peterson (Nos. 7 and 8) became the third. 5. Justin Thomas (70-70 weekend, T21) participated in the marriage proposal of the year, but couldn’t wrest the No. 1 world ranking away from Dustin Johnson. Still, Thomas retains a 389-point lead over Day for pole position in the FedExCup.

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From the frenzied crowds to the social media buzz, Tiger Woods boosted the golf world this week after coming oh-so-close to his first tournament win in almost five years.

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