Bubba Watson is back to defend his title, but Tiger Woods and 2017 champion Dustin Johnson are among the stars out to dethrone him.
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We got ourselves a baller in the house. PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live is just four weeks old, but Rob already has hung up a pair of top 10s. After finishing third of about 5,700 entries at The Honda Classic, he wrangled a 10th among a little over 7,000 at THE PLAYERS Championship. Yeah, only the top five pay, but it’s a good thing – for you, wink wink – that he’s ineligible for prize money. As Rob himself declared at the outset, it’s always easier to win when a new game is launched. Not only is there a learning curve en masse, but traditionally there are fewer people against whom to compete until momentum builds. The expectation – and the plan, naturally – is for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live to grow, but only the top five cash no matter how many are entered. In this week’s Draws and Fades, Rob walks you through his process that led to his performance at THE PLAYERS. It includes an accidental discovery of the difference in the timing of when the odds are updated on the interface (where the game is hosted) and PointsBet’s app. Capitalize on it. The Valspar Championship has us settling into what is a more familiar construct of a field. It’s more difficult to uncover the gems, but that’s why Glass and Rob collaborate for this weekly file in addition to their regular contributions across the FANTASY page. Register for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live here and monitor their progress as Influencers; however, given Rob’s early success, you likely wouldn’t have to scroll or swipe for long to find him on the main leaderboard. For a broader explanation of the format and FAQs, click here. WEEKLONG Outright Rob … Denny McCarthy (+8000) Gosh, it feels good to have the honor again. Even better, with every passing week, I’m feeling the rhythm of the game. There’s no reason not to let a reach ride for a while. Remain patient and let the play develop. I omitted deeper analysis on McCarthy in my preview material, but not because he doesn’t make sense. There are just some guys who get overcovered for stretches for various reasons, so when the opportunity to expand the lens is presented, I take advantage. He’s among the most accurate off the tee and his putting takes the pressure off his mediocre irons. So, in a field with considerable strength at the top, but in a tournament with established competitive balance, I prefer the strong position of opening with a non-winner who has a decently balanced bag and a little mojo. Glass … Russell Knox (+6000) The Jacksonville resident battled through four rounds at par or better in his backyard at TPC Sawgrass before picking up his second top 10 (T6) of 2022. Rolling into Innisbrook on three consecutive T24-or-better finishes on the track, his three best from eight previous trips, suggests he has the digits to crack the code. The Florida grass and weather shouldn’t bother him and neither will be flying under the radar. I’m moving against a massive winner’s trend of succeeding early at this event but his play has been more than steady with five consecutive paydays, including a T7 at Sony on a demanding driving golf course at Waialae. Top 10 Glass … Alex Smalley (+1100) After seeing my dude peg Kisner at +1400 for a top 10 last week, I’m inspired to catch one of my own BIG FISH. Smalley didn’t have to fight the conditions for FIVE days last week and has been churning out results in 2022. Making the cut at Genesis, Honda and Arnold Palmer suggests he’s not intimidated by big ball-striking tracks. He’s in the top 75 of distance, fairways and greens in regulation, all of which plays this week. Let’s ride! Rob … Bubba Watson (+525) Glass is right about one thing, I am a dude who nailed Kisner last week – I also love his approach for Smalley – but I was grateful that the Top 10 bets never unlocked during THE PLAYERS, at least when I was paying attention, which was quite a bit. After a second-round 74, Kisner sat T22, so I may have been persuaded to modify the selection. We’ll never know, it doesn’t matter and I don’t care! Unlike THE PLAYERS where the depth of the field begets strong value deep in the ranks, the Valspar Championship encourages a conservative choice to benefit from a smaller sample size worthy of it. Watson is No. 8 in my Power Rankings. His firepower alone tempers his odds, but that value is strong considering he’s finished a respective T4 and T13 in the last two editions of the tournament. He also was the victim of Harold Varner III’s crazy-long birdie conversion at the buzzer of the Saudi Invite in early February. The home-state vibes and chill atmosphere at Copperhead are bonuses. Top 20 Rob … Vaughn Taylor (+700) As long as this unlocks, I’m going to swing for the fence before the tournament starts, but even if it doesn’t, the strategy of not making contact doesn’t cost as much as a more aggressive decision elsewhere. Consider that the longest odds on the board for a Top 20 are just +1700. Solid, but not necessarily game-changing when all you care about is a top-five finish. Taylor checks the boxes for converging trends, and that’s good enough for me. He finished T18 (2019) and T6 (2021) in the last two editions of the tournament, and he went for a T7 in his last start in Puerto Rico. That top 10 got him into the field this week. He’s one of my Sleepers. Glass … Mito Pereira (+400) Hitting it great here is paramount unless you scramble like Jordan Spieth or Patrick Reed, so I’ll run out fresh blood again with Pereira. His numbers off the tee and into greens stick out for me, and so does his T15 at Genesis (first time) and Honda (T30). I’ll toss in a T25 at Torrey Pines just to reinforce his strength tee to green. There’s no faking it at Riviera or Torrey Pines, so I’ll roll the dice. ROUND 1 Leader Rob … Patton Kizzire (+10000) When I joined Glass on his radio show on the Thursday afternoon of THE PLAYERS, I told him that he knew that I wasn’t going to let him bask for long after he had connected with Rory McIlroy as the R1 leader at Bay Hill the previous week. Tommy Fleetwood answered at TPC Sawgrass, and at four times the kickback. Boom. Quite simply, the strategy paid off. While Fleetwood was in the more fortunate wave, the plan all along was to toss out a guy who went out early. What’s more, and coincidentally, he had been a R1 leader at THE PLAYERS before. As I also explained and promised last week, my strategy henceforth will be to grab a guy in the early wave and remain fluid throughout the day. At Copperhead, I want my choice to navigate The Snake Pit mid-round and not at the end. Holes 16, 17 and 18 always average over par, but the par-5 first hole is one of the easiest on the entire PGA TOUR. Therefore, I want him to pounce on it not only after The Snake Pit but once he’s warm, so in addition to focusing only on the early wavers, I care only about guys starting on No. 10. Kizzire goes off 10 at 8:46 a.m. ET. He’s seventh on TOUR in first-round scoring average (68.15) and tops among the commitments. He’s opened 12 of his 13 starts this season with red numbers. His lowest score among 14 rounds at Copperhead is a 5-under 66 in the opening round of the tournament last year. Glass … Keegan Bradley (+5000) I rode the roller coaster of self-inflicted wounds last week with the big-boy ball-striker at TPC Sawgrass. My pre-tournament OUTRIGHT WINNER (at +8000) found himself one shot off the lead on the back nine, but I had already abandoned ship. I’M WEAK, I KNOW. A fantastic round turned to dust late on MONDAY but his form was never in question. Rob’s man-crush – well, ONE of them – opened here last year with 65, tied the 36-hole record and played from the final group on Sunday. There are many, many worse plays than this on the board this week! 3-Ball Glass … Joel Dahmen (ENTER ODDS HERE) over Andrew Landry and Michael Thompson First-round leader on debut here in 2019 takes on Landry (5 consecutive MC) and Thompson (4 consecutive MC before T60 last week). Dahmen’s T33 extends a run of four straight on TOUR, so I’ll ride the hottest hand of the trio. Rob … David Lipsky (+194) over Sahith Theegala and Bernd Wiesberger Remember, the reward outweighs failure when it comes to a single round, and because we’re credited with coins valued at just one-quarter the odds, go heavy on the risk. A winning bet at +100 yields 25 coins. Double the odds and you bank just 50 coins. In your pursuit of the top five for prize money, the difference is negligible if you lose. But because it’s golf, the law of averages is going to pay you more often than you think it will. I went heavy in all nine of my 3-balls at THE PLAYERS. Four came through for a value of 745 coins, and I was shut out in the finale (out of a possible 655 coins), but that haul represented just shy of only 18 percent of my overall, and I finished 509 coins outside the top five in a week when only two of the top 10 were paid by Cameron Smith’s opening outright line of +3300. (For more detail, jump to my Draws and Fades linked at the top.) So, I’m keeping it simple and leaning on a worldly veteran in Lipsky whose ball-striking is more encouraging than the feel game of his younger fellow rookie, Theegala, and the underachieving Wiesberger, who has only two top 10s in 65 PGA TOUR starts across 10 seasons. Make the Cut Glass … Russell Knox (-225) For reasons stated above, this makes sense. His game thrives tee to green and that’s what is required this week. When in doubt, I prefer riding the heat. Rob … Alex Noren (-200) Kevin Kisner (-180) is the only option with longer odds, but the street loves the Swede, so I might as well hop on the bandwagon. Noren finished T21 in his only appearance here last year. He’s also missed only two cuts in his last 12 starts in tournaments worldwide with a cut. He’s cashed in five straight upon arrival, two of which for a top 10.
The FedExCup Playoffs conclude this week with the TOUR Championship at East Lake, where the FedExCup trophy and a first-place check worth $15 million is on the line. Here’s how to follow all the action. Round 1 leaderboard Round 1 tee times HOW TO FOLLOW TELEVISION Thursday-Friday, 1-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel). Saturday, 1-2:30 p.m. (GC), 2:30-7 p.m. (NBC). Sunday, 12-1:30 p.m. (GC), 1:30-6 p.m. (NBC). PGA TOUR LIVE: Thursday/ Friday 10:30 a.m. – 6 p.m. ET, Twitter window of 10:30 a.m. to approximately 12:45 p.m. Because we will re-pair after round one, there will be no fan vote to determine second Featured Group on Friday. We will send out Friday groups on Thursday evening. Saturday coverage will be 12:15 p.m. – 7 p.m., with Twitter window of 12:15 p.m. to approximately 1:30 p.m., and Featured Holes starting at 2:30 p.m. Sunday coverage will be 11:15 a.m. – 6 p.m., Twitter 11:15 a.m. to approximately 12:30 p.m., Featured Holes at 1:30 p.m. Featured Holes are the par-4 first, par-3 15th and par-5 18th. RADIO: Thursday-Friday, noon-6 p.m.; Saturday, 2-7 p.m., Sunday, 1-6 p.m. (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com). FEATURED GROUPS Rickie Fowler (19) / Kevin Kisner (20) Thursday tee time: 12:35 p.m. ET Adam Scott (13) / Dustin Johnson (14) Thursday tee time: 1:05 p.m. ET. MUST READS Power Rankings Expert Picks How it works: New format for TOUR Championship Seven things to know about East Lake Revisiting Tiger’s TOUR Championship win in 2018 Experts’ roundtable for TOUR Championship Breaking down the top 30 FedExCup bonus higher, goal is to just win Thomas discusses two-shot lead entering East Lake ‘Up & Down’ podcast: Finau saves volunteer’s life
If you’ve ever wanted one of those weeks when you can go off the board without fear of forfeiting the obvious play, the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open has chauffeured a limo and rolled out the red carpet for you. And by you, I mean us. I’m normally as conservative as it gets in fantasyland and it cost me last season. I abandoned my aggressive nature in PGA TOUR Fantasy One & Done presented by SERVPRO in 2016-17 in favor of anchoring my season with a strategy that didn’t deliver. It didn’t deliver the previous season, either, but I managed to hang on for a narrow margin of victory. I told a few gamers privately that I don’t know if I learned anything other than that there is no virtue in crawling to the finish line just as much as there is no virtue in galloping through it, just as long as you’re the one breaking the tape. Retain that swing thought for a moment. As we direct our attention to the 72-hole contest at TPC Summerlin, two variables have my attention. First, if there’s a betting favorite, it’s only because the house can’t lose. Resist equating its favorite with an actual favorite for fantasy purposes. It’s coincidence when it happens. Second, the wind is going to blow in the desert. That is not normal. Put the two together and we’re poised for an absolute crapshoot. On the third rail is the reality that you’re unlikely to miss anyone you burn. This promotes as aggressive a strategy as we get in this format. Luke List was my clubhouse leader before reviewing the weather forecast. He’s in my lineup for the Roster game, but he owns one of the highest ball flights on the PGA TOUR. Only Kevin Chappell (No. 1) and J.B. Holmes (No. 2) recorded a higher apex height in 2016-17. List slotted ninth. Gary Woodland was 10th, Jamie Lovemark was 13th and 2015 Shriners champion Smylie Kaufman was 21st. Not surprisingly, all are long off the tee. Distance goes hand in hand with height. It’s going to yield success for multiple golfers at TPC Summerlin, but I can’t condone the philosophy to push all of your chips into any of these guys in a One & Done. Oddly enough, defending champion Rod Pampling owned the second-lowest apex heights last season, but I share that as fact over friction. If there’s a low ball flight that I’d consider endorsing in varying degrees, 2014 champion Ben Martin, 2011 winner Kevin Na, Brian Stuard and Kevin Tway are attractive. However, I can’t get away from the No. 1 in my Power Rankings, Webb Simpson. So much for swinging for the fences, huh? Not only does he keep it nearer solid ground than most, but he’s been a horse at TPC Summerlin. The 32-year-old has also been nails of late. Two-man gamers are going to be enticed by the likes of Lovemark and List, but consider sticking with more experienced tacticians like Kevin Streelman and 2009 champ Martin Laird. Tway is the bold move no matter where you rank early on. FUTURE POSSIBILITIES NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2017-18. All are pending golfer commitment. Kevin Chappell … RSM; Valero (defending); St. Jude; WGC-Bridgestone; Dell Technologies Luke Donald … Pebble Beach; Honda; Valspar; Heritage Tony Finau … Farmers; Valero; Memorial; Greenbrier; Canadian Charley Hoffman … Genesis; Heritage; Houston; Valero; DEAN & DELUCA; Travelers; Canadian J.B. Holmes … Farmers; Waste Management; Pebble Beach; Genesis; Houston; Wells Fargo; Greenbrier Billy Horschel … RSM; Honda; Arnold Palmer; Valero; St. Jude; TOUR Championship Chris Kirk … RSM; Valero; PLAYERS; DEAN & DELUCA Russell Knox … Mayakoba; Sony; Honda; Heritage; PLAYERS; Dell Technologies Martin Laird … CareerBuilder; Farmers; Waste Management; Genesis; Valero; Barracuda Jamie Lovemark … RSM; Sony; Arnold Palmer Graeme McDowell … Mayakoba; RSM; Pebble Beach; Honda; WGC-Bridgestone William McGirt … Genesis; Heritage; Memorial Ryan Moore … Shriners; Sentry; Waste Management; Genesis; Valspar; Masters; Travelers; John Deere; TOUR Championship Kevin Na … Shriners; Waste Management; Valspar; Arnold Palmer; Heritage; Memorial; John Deere; Wyndham; THE NORTHERN TRUST Scott Piercy … Shriners; Mayakoba; Sony; Houston; John Deere Webb Simpson … Shriners; RSM; Sentry; Sony; CareerBuilder; Waste Management; Genesis; Wells Fargo; Travelers; Greenbrier; Wyndham Kevin Streelman … Shriners; CareerBuilder; Pebble Beach; Wells Fargo; Memorial; Travelers Jimmy Walker … Sentry; Sony; Farmers; Pebble Beach; Genesis; Valero; Greenbrier; Dell Technologies Bubba Watson … Sentry; Waste Management; Genesis; Memorial; Travelers; Greenbrier; WGC-Bridgestone; TOUR Championship Gary Woodland … Sony; Farmers; Honda; Wells Fargo; Barracuda; Dell Technologies
