Leave the driver home? A guide to the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach

ATLANTA — Each of the top five players in the FedExCup standings is guaranteed to win the FedExCup with a victory at this week’s TOUR Championship. In addition, there are certain scenarios for winning the FedExCup should someone outside the top five win the tournament. TOUR Championship leader Tiger Woods is Nos. 2 in the projected FedExCup standings. (He is currently credited with the 2,000 points that come with a victory). Here’s a look at how each top-5 players fared during Saturday’s third round at East Lake. 1. Bryson DeChambeau, 66, T21 (projected 3rd in FedExCup): After a couple of off-kilter rounds (71-75), the FedExCup leader found something with a third-round 66 that could have been even better had he not missed a 6 ½-foot birdie try on 18. DeChambeau hit 8/14 fairways, his most accurate performance off the tee so far this week, which led to the highlight of his round: After finding the short grass off the 17th tee, he hit his 100-yard approach shot into the hole for eagle. 2. Justin Rose, 68, T2 (projected 1st): It was a bogey-bogey start for Rose, but he came back with a birdie at the par-4 third hole, then birdied the fifth and sixth to serve notice that he wouldn’t be going away quietly. He and Rory McIlroy (66) are three behind Tiger Woods (65), but it’s Rose who in the driver’s seat for the FedExCup, which he stands to win as long as he doesn’t finish outside the top five in the TOUR Championship. After hitting 9/14 fairways Saturday, Rose is second in the field in driving accuracy. His Achilles’ heel in the third round: He was 28th (of 30) in Strokes Gained: Putting. 3. Tony Finau, 67, T6 (projected 4th): Finau, who is playing in his second TOUR Championship, hit just 5/14 fairways, which is usually the kiss of death at East Lake. Still, he kept his round together with the putter, figured out an alignment issue on the back nine, and came in with a 31 for a 3-under 67. He did his media obligations and then immediately went to the range after an off-day from tee to green that could have been much worse. “Putting-wise,â€� he said, “I had my A-plus game.â€� 4. Dustin Johnson, 67, T8 (projected 5th): Johnson birdied four of his last six holes Saturday and was solid in every facet: 8/14 fairways, 12/18 greens in regulation, 28 putts and well in positive numbers in Strokes Gained: Putting. His best round of an otherwise blah week, all in all not the finish he wanted after leading the FedExCup standings for much of this season. 5. Justin Thomas, 70, T8 (projected 6th): Still at 4-under for the tournament and going in the wrong direction in the standings in his bid to become the first FedExCup champion to successfully defend his title. He doubled the par-3 15th hole and had to birdie the last two for an even-par 70. Thomas could not practice full shots coming into the tournament due to a right wrist injury, which he suffered in the last round of the BMW Championship, and is in negative numbers in Strokes Gained: Putting. Here’s a look at the top 5 in the projected standings: 1. Justin Rose (2nd in FedExCup), 2,780 projected points 2. Tiger Woods (20th in FedExCup), 2,219 projected points 3. Bryson DeChambeau (1st in FedExCup), 2,160 projected points 4. Tony Finau, (3rd in FedExCup), 1,887 projected points 5. Dustin Johnson (4th in FedExCup), 1,576 projected points

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Here are nine tidbits from the final round of The John Deere Classic gamers can use tomorrow, this weekend or down the road. TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, hosts for the 18th time, measures 7,286 yards and plays to Par-71. Big thanks to Rob Bolton for coming off the bench yesterday as I was celebrating the nuptials of great friends. Thanks Rob! Seoul Man For the second week in a row on the PGA TOUR a native of Seoul romped to victory as Michael Kim took home his first TOUR win at TPC Deere Run after Kevin Na’s super Sunday at The Greenbrier. The former Cal Bear from the heralded Class of 2011, Kim fired a final round 66 to post 257 (-27), a new tournament record, as he won by a season-tying best eight shots over Francesco Molinari, Joel Dahmen, Sam Ryder and Bronson Burgoon.  Raise your hand if you saw this coming. Now keep it up if you’re lying! Kim entered the week ranked No. 473 in the OWGR and had made six cuts in 2018. His best finish on the season was T18 in Memphis and his scoring average checked in at No. 181. He was also 149th in birdie average while 195 in fairways and 192 GIR. In eight previous rounds in the Quad Cities he broke 69 exactly once. So what happened? Well, this did:  His worst round of the week was 66.  Circled 30 birdies.  Led SG: putting (13.514), proximity (24′, 11″) and T1 in scrambling.  Played the final 29 holes without a bogey.  Square only three bogeys (no others) for the week.  Played the Par-4 holes 18-under, this would have cashed T6 alone.  He opened with 63, T2, his worst ending-round position of the week. With this victory Kim secures a two-year exemption on TOUR and a last-minute trip across the pond to Scotland. Upon his return gamers should take a deep breath before rushing him into lineups. As we’ve seen before, these victories are life-changing events but I’d point out this is only his third top-10 finish in the last three years. This hasn’t “been coming” so keeping it up sounds just as unlikely. This performance was magnificent and that’s just fine. Know Thy Enemy These were the top-10 selected golfers in the PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf game presented by SERVPRO. Gamers who leaned on Kevin Streelman heating up on the weekend were rewarded as his 13 birdies against just two bogeys moved him up the leaderboard. He hit all 18 greens after finding 13 of 14 fairways. His T7 is his third top-10 payday for the Illinois native in eight tries. PAIN OR GAIN These were the top-10 selected golfers in the PGA TOUR Fantasy One & Done presented by SERVPRO: Joaquin Niemann moved up 16 spots in the final round to pick up another top 25, his sixth in 10 events this year. He closed with a bogey-free 32 on the inward nine to salvage a few more dollars for his investors. Believe it or not, this is his worst finish when playing the weekend, surpassing T17 at QLN. He’s 19. This is a recording. More Lire Francesco Molinari is 40-under par in his last two events on TOUR and has won and finished T2 on a pair of courses he’s never played before. Starting the day five shots behind not even a final-round 64 could put a dent in Kim’s lead. The Italian heads to Carnoustie as one of the favorites as his June and July results have been red hot. His cashes the majority of his checks based on his tee-to-green game and that was a key this week. He split 45 of 56 fairways (T12) and had to fix his ball mark on 57 of 72 GIR (T9). Bridesmaids Of the gang of four that tied for second, three not named Molinari could use the points and the cash. They all picked up their best finishes on TOUR and should all be sleeping comfortably tonight. For the seventh time in nine events Joel Dahmen posted T25 or better and will check in at No. 83 on the FEC Playoff board. … For the fifth time in his last nine starts Bronson Burgoon cashed for T30 or better, eclipsing his career-best T6 at QLN with his T2 money this week. This is his second top 10 in his last three events. … Sam Ryder popped into the radar with solo fifth in Houston. As quickly as he popped in he popped out as he MC in five of his next nine without a top-25 placement. He jumps to No. 115 in the FEC standings as he looks to secure his card for next year. Varner Did Not Vanish After playing in the final group and finishing T5 last week, Harold Varner III capitalized on his momentum and finished sixth. I always find it interesting how guys react after being so close to their first win on TOUR (he previously won in Australia) especially on a course where he MC last year. There’s an old axiom in fantasy golf about riding hot players and he rewarded those who followed. Course Historians The combination of Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson has had more than their fair shares of success at TPC Deere Run over the last 10 years. The pair didn’t add to their podium finishes this year but Johnson’s rally on Sunday turned a dire week into a decent one for gamers. The Iowan posted a bogey-free 64 to jump up 23 spots to T16 to salvage points and dollars in every format. Interestingly enough Stricker had his worst payday of the season on track he’s annually dominated reinforcing there are no sure things in fantasyland. We move on. Sunday Silence Beginning the final round T3. Matt Jones still hasn’t been able to find the key to Sunday as he dropped nine places to T12. It’s his best finish of the season but he’s still on the outside (No. 145) looking in. … David Hearn opened 66-64 and sat T7 after 70 on the marathon that was Saturday. His matching Sunday 70 pushed him to T16 matching his best finish on his own ball this season. Gamers will point out his bogey-bogey final two holes didn’t help matters any. … Johnson Wagner re-established his horse-for-course status again this year as his run at TPC Deere Run is T7, T5, T5, MC and T16 this year. His one-under-par 70 dropped him nine spots to his final spot reinforcing how rounds in the 70’s just don’t work here. Study Hall The final round scoring average of 68.254 (-2.746) was the easiest of the four rounds by over half of a shot. For the week TPC Deere Run took on plenty of rain and averaged 69.185 (-1.815) for the four rounds. There were 18 bogey-free rounds on the weekend including 10 on Sunday… Kim was joined by World No. 371 Brandon Stone, who shot 60 to win the Scottish Open, plus Eddie Pepperell and Jens Dantorp as the final four players exempt into The Open Championship. … For those of you wondering about Graham DeLaet, I saw this tweet earlier in the week.

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2019 THE NORTHERN TRUST, End of Round 1. Course scoring averages: Overall: -1.66 strokes per round Morning wave: -2.00 Afternoon wave: -1.32 Current cutline: 81 players at -1 or better (T65th position) Top 3 most likely projected cutlines: 2 under par: 22.8% 3 under par: 22% 4 under par: 15.8% Top 10 win probabilities: Dustin Johnson (2, -8, 18.2%) Jon Rahm (T3, -7, 12.8%) Rory McIlroy (T5, -6, 10.3%) Justin Rose (T5, -6, 8.5%) Webb Simpson (T5, -6, 7.1%) Troy Merritt (1, -9, 4.2%) Tony Finau (T5, -6, 3.7%) Justin Thomas (T18, -4, 3.3%) Kevin Kisner (T3, -7, 2.6%) Patrick Reed (T9, -5, 1.6%) NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of THE NORTHERN TRUST, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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