Leaderboard: Na leads after 54 holes at Colonial

In recent months, Bubba Watson, Tony Finau and Louis Oosthuizen have popularized Ping “Blueprint Forged� prototype irons, which are made with compact profiles, thin toplines and thin soles. Oosthuizen, for his part, won the 2018 South Africa Open using the new forged irons. Many thought the TOUR prototype irons were hollow-bodied due to a screw in the toe, however, PGATOUR.COM since learned that the screw is simply to add additional weight. The Blueprint Forged irons, as of now, are a TOUR-only offering, meaning they are not available at retail. While Ping still has not confirmed that the irons coming to retail, a new iron spotted at the 2019 Honda Classic on Monday could suggest they may be available to the public sometime in the future. Seamus Power, who most recently was using a set of Ping iBlades, showed up on Monday of the Honda Classic with Ping Blueprint Forged irons that have a red dot on the back cavities. These differ from the dot-less irons that Watson, Oosthuizen and Finau have used in PGA TOUR competition. A Ping representative confirmed they are different heads than the previously seen prototypes. The red dots on Power’s irons suggest these iron heads are being made under the dot system, which uses different color dots to identify different lie angles on retail products. Power confirmed his irons are 1-degree flat.

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DORADO, Puerto Rico – Although D.A. Points doesn’t technically get to defend his title this week in Puerto Rico, he may be the one who was credited for the idea of the Puerto Rico Open Charity Pro-Am. Points, who won the 2017 Puerto Rico Open by two shots, didn’t even wait until the call came out from the TOUR for support after last year’s hurricane. He volunteered to come down to the island as soon as there were questions about whether or not an event would take place this year. “I said to the guys at the PGA TOUR, ‘hey, let me know. If you guys want me to go down there for a fundraiser or a Pro-Am, just let me know,’� he said. “I wanted to help out.� Points was part of a contingent of 20 professional golfers from the PGA TOUR, Web.com Tour, and LPGA Tour who came together to help raise more than $500,000 for relief efforts this week. He said the resiliency of the Puerto Rican people is part of who they are. Even though last year’s Hurricane Maria was the worst recorded natural disaster in the island’s history, he said he’s seen them roll with the punches and was pleasantly surprised at how – of what he’s seen so far – the island is still “beautiful Puerto Rico.� Points’ story as well could be one of resiliency, as he said he came into last year’s Puerto Rico Open after a few down years and was trying to dig his game out of one of the deepest pits he’d ever been in. He birdied his first five holes Sunday but then got ahead of himself and fell back slightly, before birding four of his final six holes to eventually win by two over Retief Goosen, Bryson DeChambeau and Bill Lunde. He said he cared little about defending his title this week. He was happy to be part of the experience for the people here. “I’m sad the tournament isn’t going on this year, but I still have this opportunity to be down in Puerto Rico and play another great golf course,� he said. The biggest reason why it was important to be here this week, he said, was because people care about Puerto Rico – and the people who live here. When the TOUR reached out to some other past champions, it was an easy thing to say yes to. Derek Lamely, who won this event in 2010, said the big reason why he’s here is because of how much Puerto Rico feels like his home in Florida. “As stupid as it is to say, it even smells like home,� he said. “I’ve always liked it here.� Another Floridian and past Puerto Rico Open champion, George McNeil (2012), said without question he was going to participate this week and help out as much as he can. It was an opportunity to help show people Puerto Rico was open for business again, and because he saw how much impact a hurricane can have on a community – with Fort Myers, Florida getting hit by Hurricane Irma last year – he was happy to participate. “When the TOUR was figuring out what to do and they come up with this, it was a very easy yes. I’m happy to be down here and happy to play. The response and what people are doing is over and beyond what they expected, which is always great to see,� said McNeil, whose pro-am team (he split pro duties with Cheyenne Woods of the LPGA Tour, Tiger Woods’ niece) fired a 16-under-par 56 to win the event by one shot. “People are so excited about having us down here.� The PGA TOUR and its tournaments raised over $180 million for charitable causes in 2017, a record amount. McNeil said this week’s event – with the ultimate goal of raising $500,000 for local charities that have been part of the relief effort – is a microcosm of the TOUR’s charitable efforts as a whole. “That’s what the TOUR is all about,� he said. “It’s one of the things I’ve always loved the most,� continued Lamely. “You look at all these sports – the NFL and Major League Baseball – and we crush them all (in charitable giving). It’s definitely a great thing to be a part of.� And although Points will have to wait another year before he can try to become the second person to win the event twice in his career, an event like this week’s pro-am was a chance to be of something even bigger than a golf tournament. “This was our chance to say, ‘hey, we know you went through a really tough time, so if there is any way to help out, we will,’� he said. “People are still with Puerto Rico and we were ready to help bring people back here.�

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After Thursday’s first round at the CIMB Classic, Bronson Burgoon leads alone at 9 under par. In pursuit 1 stroke behind is Austin Cook, who is then followed by a trio of players at 7 under par. However, the clear frontrunner in terms of win probability is Justin Thomas, who sits one shot further back at 6 under par. Here are the top 10 win probabilities according to our live predictive model. Thomas is in a league of his own this week according to our model. He is estimated to be 2.1 strokes better than the average PGA TOUR professional, while the second-best player in this field, Paul Casey, is estimated at just 1.2 strokes above the average professional. Thomas’ pre-tournament win probability was 14 percent; his 6 under par 66 on Thursday increased that number by 5 percentage points. Thomas has been a model of consistency over the last year and a half. Shown below are Thomas’ adjusted strokes-gained (“True SG�) by event since 2015. The 2017 Open Championship is highlighted because this is the last time Justin Thomas had negative adjusted strokes-gained in an event, a remarkable achievement. The CIMB Classic is one of the easier events to win on the PGA TOUR schedule; we estimate it to be similar to the John Deere Classic or the AT&T Byron Nelson. That being said, it is a great feat to win any PGA TOUR event. Even this week, where Justin Thomas is clearly in the best form of any player in this field, he still only has about a 1 in 7 chance of winning at the start of the week. This speaks to the variability in golfer performance, and lends credibility to the idea that “on any given day, anyone can win� in professional golf. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the CIMB Classic, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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