Kuchar shoots another 64, leads Mayakoba by 2

Torrey Pines specialist Jason Day is in danger of missing the U.S. Open at the iconic coastal venue and could leave next week’s PGA Championship, or this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson, at any stage for the birth of his fourth child. The Australian has always put family first and said wife Ellie is due in early June but hits full term on her pregnancy this Friday, leaving him on call for an early departure as he looks to recapture past success in Texas. The last time he missed a major – the 2012 Open Championship – was for the birth of Dash, the couple’s first child. “If I’m playing golf, whatever, it doesn’t matter. I just want to make sure that I see the birth of our fourth child … I could get a call this week or next week. Ellie’s two to three centimeters dilated and 15% effaced, and her belly has already dropped. In the next four weeks it can come,” Day said. “If it happens to be on Sunday at a major championship where I’m in contention, it happens. You got to do it. I’m not going to miss it because I’m in contention. It would be nice to win, but family is forever.” The former Dallas resident claimed the first of his 12 PGA TOUR wins at the 2010 AT&T Byron Nelson and has four top-10s from his five tournament appearances – the sort of success he desperately needs if he’s to find his way into the field for June’s U.S. Open. While the PGA Championship comes sooner, Day circled the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines on the calendar as soon as it was announced in 2014 – a year before he would win the first of his two Farmers Insurance Open’s at the San Diego venue. He had finished runner-up at Torrey just a few months earlier and having won a Junior World title there as a kid the former world No. 1 had always loved the venue. His passion grew over time, particularly as he watched Tiger Woods win time and time again on the edge of the Pacific Ocean, including his epic triumph at the 2008 U.S. Open. But despite finishing inside the top five in half of his 10 U.S. Open appearances, the 33-year-old is yet to be exempt for the tournament and at 62nd in the world rankings sits on the outside looking in as key qualifying dates approach. Day must find a way inside the world top 60 on either May 24 (after the PGA Championship) or June 7 (after the Memorial Tournament Presented by Nationwide) to qualify as he’s already stated he does not intend to join sectional qualifying in his hometown Columbus because of a sponsor conflict. “I haven’t even thought about missing a major championship in a very long time. I’m obviously on the border of missing (Torrey). I’ve got to play well in the next two weeks,” Day said. “Obviously I would love to play the Torrey Pines U.S. Open because I’ve had a lot of success around that golf course.” His 2021 has been far from stellar thus far and he suits up in Texas off two straight missed cuts and with just one top-10 (T7, AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am). Day admits his confidence has taken a hit as distractions puncture his game and his once dominant putting prowess has waned. The 33-year-old has returned to work with former mental coach Jason Goldsmith, who was with him during his near year-long stint as world No. 1 in 2015-16, as he looks to rediscover some old swagger. First step is getting through the moments of doubt and finding love in the grind again. “I’m just trying to build that confidence. I feel like my game is starting to come around nicely and I’m starting to feel good about it,” Day said. “I know I’ve got to keep persisting. If I don’t do it, it’s not going to be enjoyable for me. If it’s not enjoyable for me, I may as well retire. I can’t play the way that I’m going and beat my head against a wall, essentially. “But, then on the other hand I’m like, ‘No, you can’t quit. You got to keep pushing, stay persistent, stay positive, patient, keep moving forward,’ and it’ll come back. Right now I’m trying to do that.”

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In just five years, Jon Rahm’s performances at Torrey Pines have reverberated in the record books, indelibly tying the world’s No. 1 player to this southern California layout. In 2017, Rahm concluded his inaugural Torrey Pines appearance with a powerful exclamation mark, making eagle on the 72nd hole to seal victory. Rahm was the first player to win the event with a closing eagle since Tiger Woods in 1999, and the first to win in his Farmers Insurance Open debut since Arnold Palmer in 1957. Four years later, Rahm closed his first major championship victory in a similar fashion: with a red-hot Torrey Pines finish. Rahm closed birdie-birdie, becoming the first U.S. Open champion to birdie the final two holes of regulation since Tom Watson in 1982. His victory made him not only the first U.S. Open winner from Spain, but the first Spaniard to win any United States Golf Association championship. Rahm is a cumulative 51-under at the Farmers Insurance Open since 2017, the best cumulative score by any player in that span by five strokes. But what specifically has set Rahm apart from his peers in his 20 career rounds at this event? Twenty First Group dove into the numbers to explain. North Course Dominance Over the last five years, the North Course at Torrey Pines has played about two strokes easier than the South has. No player has taken more advantage of that disparity than Rahm, who in five career rounds on the North Course has a grand total of five bogeys. Rahm’s career scoring average of 66.4 on the North Course is the best of any player since 1990 with at least four competitive rounds there. His remarkable 6.20 birdies-or-better per round on the North Course ranks third-best in that span, trailing only Ryan Palmer (6.63) and Tom Kite (6.25). Rahm has hit less than 50 percent of his career fairways on the North Course (48.6 percent, to be exact), but it hasn’t impacted his ability to score on that layout. Thirty-three percent of the time Rahm has missed the fairway on a par-4 or par-5 on the North Course, he’s still gone on to make birdie or better. That is a significant advantage over the field average historically (20 percent). Rahm has been stellar on the par-4s at the North Course in his career, regardless of tee shot outcome: his 3.72 scoring average ranks third-best among players with four or more rounds played since 1990. Elite drives on the South Course While missing the fairway hasn’t penalized Rahm much on the North Course, that can’t usually be said for the South. Traditionally, only about 14 percent of players who miss a fairway on Torrey South go on to make birdie or eagle. That’s been no issue for Rahm – his driving accuracy leaps to 63 percent when playing the more difficult Torrey Pines South layout in this event. Since Rahm’s debut in 2017, there are 122 players with six or more Farmers Insurance Open rounds at Torrey Pines South. Of that group, Rahm is the only player to average a full stroke gained per round off the tee. Since Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee became available in 2004, Rahm’s average of +1.07 per round is the second highest of any player with a dozen or more rounds. Fellow tournament winner Bubba Watson (2011) is the only player in Rahm’s league in that regard, gaining 1.33 strokes off-the-tee per round in that span. More than 55 percent of Rahm’s Strokes Gained: Total on the South Course have come from tee shots, the third-highest rate of any player with 10 or more SG: Total on this course in the last five years. His ability off the tee has been especially beneficial on par-4s, where Rahm has gained, on average, half-a-stroke on the field with his drives per round. That is the third-highest rate on the South Course in that stretch, trailing only Cameron Champ (+0.77) and Luke List (+0.55). Different recipes to get it done Over the last 30 years, the players to average the most birdies-or-better per round at the Farmers Insurance Open are Woods (4.88) and Rahm (4.60). Not coincidentally, those are also the two players to win U.S. Open titles at the venue, with Woods’ unforgettable performance on a broken leg coming in 2008. But the two champions have used different formulas to separate themselves from the field on the South Course. While we mentioned Rahm using his driver to a distinct advantage, Woods has averaged just +0.34 Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee per round at Torrey South since ShotLink data became available in 2004. That’s less than one-third of the strokes Rahm gains from the tee box. Woods, however, has been peerless with his iron play on the South Course, averaging a stellar +1.24 Strokes Gained: Approach per round in that span. Of players with 12 or more rounds since 2004, Woods is one of just five players to average a full stroke gained per round in that statistic, and he ranks one-tenth of a stroke per round better than any other player. Much like how he has performed on the PGA TOUR in the last seven months, Rahm has found success through his bag in his career at this event. Since 2017, Rahm ranks well above average in every Strokes Gained statistic at this event – leading off-the-tee, and ranking 43rd in approach, 29th around the green and 48th in putting (out of 122 players with a minimum of six rounds). That’s a microcosm of the balanced excellence Rahm has been displaying week-in and week-out on TOUR: since July 1 of last year, Rahm leads all players in Strokes Gained ball-striking (off-the-tee + approach) and ranks No. 6 in Strokes Gained: Putting. The reigning world No. 1 is the justifiable betting favorite this week at the Farmers Insurance Open.

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