Keegan Bradley picks up the pieces at TPC Boston

It is a star-studded first page of the leaderboard through two rounds at the BMW Championship. This should come as no surprise to anyone, given the strength of this field. Here are the top 10 win probabilities according to our model: Rose and Schauffele lead the way with 16 and 15 percent chances of winning, respectively. The model estimates Rose to be about 1 stroke better per round than Schauffele, and therefore we expect Rose to cover the 2 stroke deficit he currently faces. Sitting just outside this top 10 is Tiger Woods, who we estimate to have a 2.9 percent chance at victory. It is likely surprising to many readers that our model is giving Finau a slightly higher win probability than Woods. However, take a look at their respective finish probabilities for a Top 20 and Top 5 finish: Tiger has a significantly higher probability of finishing in the top 20 than Finau. Our model actually rates Tiger slightly better than Finau in terms of expected score, but Tiger has been incredibly consistent this year (i.e. he has had a low standard deviation in scores). As a result, the model gives Tiger slightly less upside than Finau. It’s worth noting that we don’t allow for big differences across players in their predicted standard deviations (because past standard deviation only weakly predicts future standard deviation), but Woods has been a big outlier over the past year. Finally, here is a strokes-gained breakdown of Tiger’s round on Friday: It was an abysmal day on the greens for Woods; he finished last in the field of 69 on Friday in strokes-gained: putting. Despite the disappointing second round, Woods is still in excellent shape to advance to the season-ending TOUR Championship: our model estimates his chances at 97 percent. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of The BMW Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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One can only wonder what their walk-up music might have been after PGA TOUR superstars Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson revealed they were planning a potential partnership at the 2020 Zurich Classic of New Orleans before the tournament was officially canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. RELATED: McIlroy, Johnson, Fowler, Wolff headline TaylorMade Driving Relief to benefit COVID-19 relief efforts | Live golf is finally on the horizon | Seminole Golf Club is ready for its close-up Thankfully we will see two-time FedExCup champion and current world No. 1 McIlroy and 20-time PGA TOUR winner Johnson team up on May 17 for TaylorMade Driving Relief – a $3 million charity skins match against Rickie Fowler and Matthew Wolff – to raise money for COVID-19 relief efforts. But it turns out we may have had the opportunity to see the incredible power duo earlier had the pandemic not claimed the one team event on the PGA TOUR regular season calendar. Speaking to Mike Tirico on NBC Sports, the pair admitted the partnership was one they had discussed before their upcoming match at Seminole Golf Club sees the return of live golf. “I’m happy Rory is my teammate for sure,â€� Johnson said. “We’ve played a lot of golf together and we even talked about playing at the New Orleans tournament. I think we will be a good team.â€� McIlroy, who had finished inside the top 5 in 10 of his last 11 worldwide starts with two wins before the pandemic, confirmed it was a serious consideration. “It was funny, DJ rang me up the week after THE PLAYERS Championship when he was out on his boat and he said, ‘Hey, if the New Orleans tournament happens, would you want to be partners?’â€� McIlroy said. “And I was like, ‘Yeah sure. I’m not sure if it is going to happen but if it does, yeah, that would be fun.’ We didn’t get a chance to do it there, but we’re getting the chance to do it at Seminole in a couple weeks’ time and that’s going to be fun.â€� No word yet as to if they might revisit the pairing for the 2021 Zurich Classic of New Orleans at TPC Louisiana but should they play well at Seminole, it is one partnership that shouldn’t be discounted. In the three previous iterations of the tournament in its team format, some glamour pairings have included Justin Rose-Henrik Stenson, Patrick Reed-Patrick Cantlay, Jason Day-Adam Scott and Sergio Garcia-Tommy Fleetwood. But a McIlroy-Johnson combo could be the most formidable yet. First up though, they must get past Fowler and Wolff at Seminole, an enticing team in its own right. As such, practice schedules will be amped up. “I’m excited to play again. I’ve hit balls twice since THE PLAYERS for about an hour as they closed down the courses here in Palm Beach,â€� Johnson admitted. “But they did reopen last week … and I was actually very surprised at how well I hit it. “For me it’s the little things around the greens like chipping and putting … that’s what takes a little bit longer to get your touch back. But full swing wise … sometimes a break actually helps me because I forget all the bad thoughts I had before I stopped playing.â€� McIlroy joked he’d have his partners back after a couple of good practice rounds last weekend. “I’m pretty encouraged. Sometimes you pick it up and it takes you a couple of days to find the middle of the clubface but thankfully this wasn’t one of those times,â€� McIlroy said. “So hopefully DJ can take some comfort in that and know that his partner is in pretty good form.â€� As for that walk-up song … might we suggest “All I Do Is Winâ€� by DJ Khaled.

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