SOUTHAMPTON, N.Y. — PGATOUR.COM’s staff will dive into the big issues each evening after play concludes at Shinnecock Hills. Dustin Johnson has built a four-shot lead at the halfway point, but there’s still a lot of golf remaining on a difficult track. Here are our predictions for the weekend. There is only one man under par. Is the U.S. Open over? Cameron Morfit, Staff Writer: Absolutely not, especially in light of what happened at the 2010 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, the 2010 PGA Championship, and the World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions last fall. That last one was probably the most shocking, mathematically, given that DJ had a six-shot lead over his nearest pursuer but shot 77 to lose. And it’s easier to have a meltdown at Shinnecock than any of those places. Just look at Ian Poulter’s triple-bogey, bogey finish Friday. Ben Everill, Staff Writer: Not yet, but it is close. Dustin Johnson has given up leads before but he just looks like he is in that mood where he is going to blitz them. If he shoots 1 under over the next two rounds I don’t think anyone can catch him. Sean Martin, Senior Editor: Hardly. As Brooks Koepka said, “This is the U.S. Open. There’s disaster lurking around every corner.â€� I feel like every time the media prematurely hands a player a trophy, the golf gods yank it out of his hands. Dustin Johnson is definitely the favorite but there is still a lot of golf to be played. History does favor Johnson, though. This is the seventh time someone has led by four or more shots after 36 holes. Only Tom McNamara in 1909 failed to convert such a large lead into victory. Jonathan Wall, Equipment Insider: I think so. DJ isn’t anywhere close to the player he was in 2010 when he collapsed over the weekend at the U.S. Open. He won’t run away and hide, but he’s not giving up this lead the way he’s playing at the moment. Four shots feels like eight the way Shinnecock is playing. There’s no rain in the weekend forecast and the winds are supposed to be relatively calm. What do you think will be the winning score? Morfit: Having seen Tommy Fleetwood and Brooks Koepka each put a 66 on the board today, I’d say the winner will have to get to 4 under, which means DJ merely has to tread water. Easy, right? Everill: I think 5 under is enough to win outright. If they set it up super hard then as low as 1 under could still win. Martin: Johnson holds the answer in his oversized palms, but I think 5 under is a safe bet. Shinnecock Hills drains easily so, even with two days of rain, Shinnecock Hills can still play firm and fast this weekend. And that is a scary proposition for the field because of the steep slopes of closely-mown grass that surround these poa annua putting surfaces. Wall: My guess is 5 under. I think DJ posts another red number tomorrow and strolls to victory. How far down the leaderboard can you realistically look for a potential champion? Morfit: I would say anyone at 4 over is still within shouting distance, but obviously in need of a terrific weekend. Alex Noren is on that number and has the chops to make a big move like that. Everill: I don’t think you can go past the guys at 3 over. That’s already giving the world’s best player a seven-shot head start. If those guys can manage a 5-under weekend and get some help from Johnson, they have a slim chance. Martin: The 10-shot rule is no longer used in determining the cut, but I’m going to apply it here. Players at 6 over par should have the benefit of playing in good scoring conditions Saturday morning. We saw a couple 66s on Friday. If someone at 6 over can shoot 65 on Saturday, they’ll likely start Sunday in contention. Wall: I think anyone at 3 over has a chance, but someone is going to need to throw out a 65 or 66 to have a realistic shot on Sunday. Who do you expect will make the biggest move into contention on Moving Day? Morfit: I like the fire that Rickie Fowler is showing right now. He’s been asked a lot this week about not having won a major, and he hasn’t shied away from saying he’s got the game to get it done. He’s showing as much so far and is right there without shouting distance. He’ll start Saturday in ninth place, six shots behind Johnson. Everill: Defending champion Brooks Koepka. A very nice 66 today continues his form of late. Since his return from injury he has gone low multiple times and having already won the event the nerves shouldn’t be a factor. Plus he loves DJ, and loves beating him more. Martin: My heart says Phil Mickelson. And I can talk my head into agreeing. He is 6 over par but hitting the ball really well. He’s missed just two fairways this week and hit 15 of 18 greens Friday. He knows how to play Shinnecock Hills. I could see him taking advantage of some good scoring conditions early Saturday. Wall: I love Rickie Fowler’s position. He looked under control today and has a realistic chance to take down DJ if he posts 66 or 67 on Saturday. Sooner or later he’s going to shed the major-less title. This feels like another great opportunity. Halfway through the U.S. Open, how do you feel about Shinnecock Hills’ performance? Morfit: The golden sunlight that fell over the course Friday afternoon was absolutely stunning, and with the wind down I really think it was Shinnecock at its best. I’m glad some of the ones who were caught in the strongest winds Thursday morning got to play in those absolutely primo conditions Friday night. Everill: It is a gorgeous part of the world and a wonderful golf course. I feel nostalgic for the sand belt courses of Melbourne with every step. I think it has proven itself a worthy part of the championship rotation. Martin: We saw completely contrasting conditions over the first two days at Shinnecock Hills and it was a challenge in both of them. It isn’t hard to find an unhappy player at a U.S. Open, but even Ian Poulter, who admitted that he hated this tournament for 14 years, said that he was pleased with the course setup. Johnson, Tommy Fleetwood and Brooks Koepka showed us that good scores are out there but Shinnecock Hills is a bear even in the best conditions. Wall: Tough but fair. This is exactly what the USGA was hoping for at the beginning of the week. Even without the wind over the weekend, players are still going to get all they can handle. In my opinion, Shinnecock helped the U.S. Open reclaim its identity as the toughest test in golf.
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