J.J. Spaun shoots 65 to take PGA Tour lead in Las Vegas

ORLANDO – Matthew Fitzpatrick managed to avoid bogeys on a Bay Hill course so firm he could barely find any pitch marks on the greens. It led to a 5-under 67 and a one-shot lead over Rory McIlroy going into the final round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. McIlroy, who has never successfully defended any of his 22 victories worldwide, birdied three of his last four holes for a 66. This will be the third time in five events this year that he plays in the last group. Fitzpatrick, who has five European Tour victories, was at 9-under 207. So demanding was Bay Hill that it was the highest 54-hole score to lead this tournament since Ben Crenshaw was at 210 in 1993.

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2019 THE NORTHERN TRUST, End of Round 2. Top 10 win probabilities: Dustin Johnson (1, -12, 30.5%) Jon Rahm (T3, -10, 13.2%)  Rory McIlroy (T7, -9, 9.7%)  Jordan Spieth (2, -11, 7%)  Justin Rose (T7, -9, 6.3%)  Patrick Reed (T3, -10, 6.2%)  Abraham Ancer (T3, -10, 4.5%)  Louis Oosthuizen (T7, -9, 3.7%)  Troy Merritt (T3, -10, 2.8%)  Andrew Putnam (T7, -9, 2.7%) Top 5 FedExCup Win Probabilities: Rory McIlroy: 19.9% Dustin Johnson: 18.0% Brooks Koepka: 12.4% Jon Rahm: 10.4% Patrick Cantlay 5.8% NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of THE NORTHERN TRUST, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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Tony Finau figured he was playing for second midway through the final round of the 3M Open – and so too did the bettors at BetMGM sportsbook as Scott Piercy moved to near unbackable favorite. But golf is hard. And closing out a PGA TOUR win is even harder. Piercy coughed up a five-shot lead he held over Finau with 10 holes remaining at TPC Twin Cities which provided a huge swing in the odds in short time, proving that betting on golf remains one of the most unpredictable and erratic, yet opportunistic sports to wager on in the world. As such Finau claimed his third TOUR win – his first in front of his entire extended family. Before the final round Piercy had moved himself to -18, four clear of Emiliano Grillo and five in front of Finau. But Finau would post up a 4-under 67 to win by three shots while Piercy dropped five shots in his last six holes to settle for a 76 and a calamitous T4. “I was almost chasing 20 under all day I felt like. Seemed like Scott wasn’t letting up all tournament, so to all of a sudden have the lead, I will say I got quite nervous on 17 just because it was a whole different feel on how the week was going,” Finau said after his victory. “I never was near the lead. I was near the top of the leaderboard, but I was never within four or five shots. All of a sudden, I was the one leading the golf tournament. Sometimes you’ve got to learn how to play with a lead… but I didn’t know I was going to be in that situation. A couple squirrelly shots on 17 and 18, but I willed my way in and really happy to get that W.” Take a look below at the wild swings that played out over Sunday’s crazy final round. ODDS TIMELINE – Tony Finau and Scott Piercy to win the 3M Open Before Round: Finau (-13) +450; Piercy (-18) -143 After playing brilliant golf for three days Piercy rightfully held court at the top of the odds. If you put $10 on Piercy you stood to win $6.99 profit while the same bet on Finau would profit you $45. Piercy Birdies the 2nd hole: Finau (-14) +500; Piercy (-19) -250 Finau had an early birdie to his name on Sunday but Piercy matched it with a birdie on the second hole, moving his odds in tighter. $10 bet profit at this point: Finau $50; Piercy $4 Finau Birdies 4th hole: Finau (-15) +300; Piercy (-19) -167 The big-hitting Finau converts his 10-foot, 10-inch birdie putt on the 189-yard par-3 fourth hole to move within four of the lead. $10 bet profit at this point: Finau $30; Piercy $5.99 Piercy Birdies 6th hole: Finau (-15) +450; Piercy (-20) -222 In what appears to be a crucial junction, Piercy takes care of the par-5 sixth with a birdie after Finau had failed to do so in the group ahead and extends his lead over him to five shots. $10 bet profit at this point: Finau $45; Piercy $4.50 Piercy hits 8th green in regulation, Finau misses 9th green: Finau (-15) +700; Piercy (-20) -714 With a safe shot on to the par-3 eighth green Piercy appears to be in control as Finau’s approach to the tough ninth ahead finds the rough. $10 bet profit at this point: Finau $70; Piercy $1.40 Piercy Bogeys 8th, Finau Bogeys 9th: Finau (-14) +500; Piercy (-19) -714 Having been brilliant with his putter throughout the opening rounds Piercy makes a minor error by three-putting the eighth green for a bogey but Finau also bogeys up ahead to keep the gap at five shots. $10 bet profit at this point: Finau $50; Piercy $1.40 Piercy Bogeys 9th: Finau (-14) +550; Piercy (-18) -500 The difficult ninth also trips up Piercy and the lead drops to four shots but the bettors still believe he’s the man heading into the back nine. $10 bet profit at this point: Finau $55; Piercy $2 Finau birdies 11th: Finau (-15) +300; Piercy (-18) -333 The first signs of a potential shift in things pops up with Finau drops in a brilliant 15-footer for birdie on the par-4 11th. It brings him within three shots of the lead. $10 bet profit at this point: Finau $30; Piercy $3 Piercy birdies 12th: Finau (-15) +350; Piercy (-18) -400 With his tournament starting to look shaky Piercy steps up and makes a great bounce back birdie on the par-5 12th to hopefully steady his ship and get back on track for the run home. $10 bet profit at this point: Finau $35; Piercy $2.50 Piercy bogeys 11th: Finau (-15) +225; Piercy (-17) -200 The faith in Piercy really starts to wobble now as he three-putts the 11th green for another bogey and now the lead over Finau is just two shots. $10 bet profit at this point: Finau $22.50; Piercy $5 Piercy tee ball on 13 finds terrible lie right: Finau (-15) +250; Piercy (-18) -200 Just when it appeared Piercy might have put things back together his tee shot on the 13th hole finds deep rough to the right of the 13th green. $10 bet profit at this point: Finau $25; Piercy $5 Piercy bogeys 13th: Finau (-15) +175; Piercy (-17) -133 The shot gained a hole ago is given back as Piercy is unable to get up and down from the long grass. With five holes to go his lead is now two shots. $10 bet profit at this point: Finau $17.50; Piercy $7.52 Piercy tee shot on 14 sails into plugged bunker lie: Finau (-15) +150; Piercy (-17) +110 A tough break for Piercy as an average shot into a fairway bunker is punished to the max by plugging deep into the face of the hazard. $10 bet profit at this point: Finau $15; Piercy $11 Finau birdies the 14th; Piercy’s second shot on 14 stays in sand: Finau (-16) +100; Piercy (-17) +150 For the first time during the final round Scott Piercy is no longer the favorite to win as his second shot stays in the bunker while up ahead Finau makes an eight-foot birdie putt to pull within a shot. $10 bet profit at this point: Finau $10; Piercy $15 Piercy third shot on 14 goes into water: Finau (-16) -118; Piercy +800 It’s all coming undone now as Piercy’s third shot on the 14th comes up well short and into a water hazard. His lead will be gone by the end of this hole, the question is how far back will he be? $10 bet profit at this point: Finau $8.47; Piercy $80 Piercy fifth shot on 14 comes up short / makes triple bogey: Finau (-16) -250; Piercy (-14) +1800 In the final washup of a diabolical 14th hole Piercy walks away two shots off the pace. Will he be able to regroup? $10 bet profit at this point: Finau $4; Piercy $180 Finau birdies 15th hole: Finau (-17) -714; Piercy (-14) +2500 Although claiming he had no idea what had transpired behind him at this point Finau provides a crushing blow with an incredible 31-foot birdie bomb on the 15th green as Piercy is still trying to figure out what happened to his tournament. $10 bet profit at this point: Finau $1.40; Piercy $250 Piercy bogeys 15th hole: Finau (-17) -3333; Piercy (-13) +20000 With his ears still ringing from the cheers for Finau’s birdie bomb and the haymakers he took on the 14th Piercy misses a short par putt on the 15th green to drop four behind with three to play. $10 Bet profit at this point: Finau $0.30; Piercy $2000 Finau birdies 16th: Finau (-18) -10000; Piercy (-13) +20000 With his third birdie in a row Finau sets up a five-shot buffer over Piercy, the same margin he sat behind the same player just two hours prior. $10 bet profit at this point: Finau $0.10; Piercy $2000

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