It’s another major opportunity for DJ

2022 AT&T Byron Nelson, Round 1 Scoring Conditions: Overall: -1.79 strokes per round Morning wave: -2.13 Afternoon wave: -1.46 Current cutline (top 65 and ties): 65 players at -3 or better (T40) Top 3 projected cutline probabilities: 1. 5 under par: 39.5% 2. 4 under par: 34.8% 3. 6 under par: 13.7% Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Sebastian Munoz (1, -12, 32.6%) 2. Scottie Scheffler (T12, -5, 8.4%) 3. Mito Pereira (T2, -8, 7.0%) 4. Kyounghoon Lee (T2, -8, 6.1%) 5. Hideki Matsuyama (T12, -5, 4.0%) 6. Justin Thomas (T25, -4, 3.6%) 7. Dustin Johnson (T12, -5, 3.4%) 8. Seamus Power (T7, -6, 3.1%) 9. Jordan Spieth (T12, -5, 2.9%) 10. Peter Malnati (T2, -8, 2.6%) NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the AT&T Byron Nelson, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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TULSA, Okla. — Tiger Woods made it sound as though Rory McIlroy played a brand of golf with which he wasn’t familiar Thursday in the PGA Championship. McIlroy looked free and easy and saw only opportunity at Southern Hills. He blasted his driver over trees and into fairways, setting up some of his seven birdies that carried him to a 5-under 65 and an early one-shot lead. Woods picked his spots and was never terribly crisp on a right leg he said felt worse than it did at the Masters last month. He fell apart in the middle of his round and at the end, finishing with two bogeys for a 74 and his worst start to a PGA since 2015. It was just what McIlroy needed as he tries to end nearly eight years without a major, many of those chances doomed by bad starts. This was his lowest start to par since a 5-under 66 when he won the PGA at Valhalla in 2014, the last of his four majors. “I think when your game is feeling like that, it’s just a matter of going out there and really sticking to your game plan, executing as well as you possibly can and just sort of staying in your own little world,” McIlroy said. “I feel like this course, it lets you be pretty aggressive off the tee if you want to be, so I hit quite a lot of drivers out there and took advantage of my length and finished that off with some nice iron play and some nice putting.” Will Zalatoris and Pebble Beach winner Tom Hoge each opened with a 66, while Matt Kuchar and Abraham Ancer were another shot behind. McIlroy and Woods were joined in the group by Jordan Spieth, who lacks only this major to complete the career Grand Slam and arrived in Tulsa with his game in good form. But a series of missed birdie chances was followed by a series of missed par putts, and Spieth never quite recovered. He had a late birdie and saved par on his final hole at No. 9 for a 72. Masters champion Scottie Scheffler was among those who played in the afternoon, as the heat index crept toward 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32.2 Celsius). The difference between McIlroy and Woods was clear early in the round. On the 461-yard 12th hole, Woods hit iron off the tee that left him 178 yards. McIlroy pounded driver with a slight fade with the prevailing breeze, leaving him 86 yards. He hit lob wedge to a foot for birdie. That was the start of four straight birdies for McIlroy, which included a 6-iron to 25 feet for his longest birdie of the day at the par-3 14th. McIlroy made birdie on the two par 5s from greenside bunkers, hitting a 3-iron both times on the 628-yard 13th and the 665-yard fifth. He hit another big drive on the tough par-4 second, leaving 7-iron to about 10 feet. That one felt like a bonus to him. “You go out there and hit driver a lot, and if you have a hot week, you have a hot week and you’re up there,” Woods said. “The game is just different. It’s much more aggressive now, and I know that. But I was playing to my spots. If I would have hit the ball solidly on those two holes and put the ball in the fairway, I would have been fine.” He was speaking of No. 4, where he put iron in the rough and McIlroy hit a 327-yard drive up the hill and into the wind that left him a flip wedge to the green (he missed an 8-foot putt); and the ninth hole, when Woods’ tee shot hit a tree and left him a 4-iron to the green. The bigger concern was his leg. Woods has said he has good days and bad from a leg badly injured in his February 2021 car crash, and this didn’t looked like a great one. Of equal concern was going into Friday nine shots behind McIlroy and likely having to fight to make the cut. The warmth — not oven heat like the 2007 PGA in August — and mild wind led to ideal scoring, though Southern Hills still had enough defense. Only 17 of the 78 players from the morning wave broke par. “I don’t think a major champion here has ever been double digits under par, so you know the scores aren’t going to go much further,” Hoge said. “It’s a grind out here. If you get out of position in the rough here, it’s tough to control the golf ball around these greens because they can get running off so fast. You just try to keep it simple.” One other part of Southern Hills’ history with seven previous majors: Five of the champions had at least a share of the 18-hole lead. Xander Schauffele was in the group at 68, while Tony Finau was among those at 69. John Daly tried to revive some memories at age 56 and with a beard longer than any rough at Southern Hills. He opened with a 67 in 2007 and was 2 under through 10 holes until fading at the end with four bogeys over his last five holes for a 72.

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I hope everyone enjoyed the 18-hour or so offseason! Plenty of time to see the family and just enough time to explain to them how it’s back to work. Roll out the barrel and sunscreen as Johnny Miller’s Silverado Resort and Spa kicks off the 2020-2021 50 event marathon. The North Course in lovely Napa Valley will host for the seventh consecutive season and will serve as the season opening event for the sixth time during that stretch. Wine country is a great place to kick back and relax if there wasn’t the pressure of winning the season’s first event and punching a ticket for most of the big events later this season. That sounds weird to say one day after The TOUR Championship but it’s time to pop the cork and get on with it. The North Course at Silverado plays 7,166 and to Par-72. Those numbers would suggest 30-under and course records somewhere in the 50s. Nope. There’s no way Miller would allow that! One of the toughest tracks on TOUR to hit fairways, the North Course annually hangs around the top five in this category. Bombing and gouging may work but with rough that’s approaching almost four inches it’s hardly guaranteed. Robert Trent Jones’ green complexes of Poa/Bent roll true as a sip of Silver Oak yet aren’t the easiest to read. Only one winner in the last six has finished inside the top 17 in Strokes-Gained: Putting so there will be plenty of noses buried in green books this weekend. The “short”-ness and Par 72 will have players chomping at the bit but patience, navigation and experience doesn’t hurt. In the last three seasons, the leading birdie taker has circled only 23 so this place is anything but a pushover. Chesson Hadley and Ricky Barnes share the course record of 61. Brendan Steele posted a tournament best 270 in calendar 2017 but the average winning score is 272. Cameron Champ is not here this week to defend but that won’t bother the full field of 156 players. Up for grabs are a $6.6 million purse ($1.188 winner), 500 FedExCup points and essentially a three year exemption, the rest of this 49 event season and the two seasons after. Not to mention a spot in the 2021 Masters, PLAYERS and a really cool wine barrel trophy to top it off! Recent Winners at Silverado 2019: Cameron Champ (-17; not entered) Led by three after 54 holes and won by a shot. … Sacramento native became the second Californian to win in the last three years. … Fourth winner of six 30 or younger at 24. … Fourth winner of six to lead the field in Strokes-Gained: Tee to Green. … Also led in Strokes-Gained: Off the Tee and Scrambling. … Second straight winner to rank outside the top 12 in Strokes Gained: Approach but also top also top eight in Driving Distance. … 21 birdies (T2). … Won in third attempt (T25-MC). Notables Playing This Week: Zac Blair (T4) posted 16-under over the final three rounds after opening with 75. … Cameron Percy (T7) signed for four rounds of 70 or better. … Xinjun Zhang (T7) led the field with 22 birdies. … Nick Watney (T10) sat two shots off Bryson DeChambeau’s (not entered) 36-hole lead at 10-under after 69-65. … Adam Scott (not entered) was the only player in the top 32 to post two rounds above par. … Top 16 were double digits under-par. … 2-under played the weekend. … Just 23 bogey-free rounds on the week. 2018: Kevin Tway (-14) Defeated Ryan Moore (not entered) and Brandt Snedeker in a three hole playoff. … Birdied Nos. 17 and 18 to get into playoff. … Birdied all three playoff holes to win for the first time on TOUR. … Joins all winners here by finishing in the top three in Bogey Avoidance. … Third in Strokes-Gained: Tee to Green. … Began the final round three shots back in the last group. Notables Playing This Week: Brandt Snedeker (P2) led by three after 36 and 54 holes, led the field with 23 birdies. … Aaron Baddeley and Luke List shared fourth with Troy Merritt and Sam Ryder. … JB Holmes cash alone in ninth. … Top 10 was all double digits under par on 10-under led by Bill Haas. … Phil Mickelson (T17) was the only player in the top 24 to have a round at par AND a round OVER par. … Sepp Straka (T46) posted 63 on Thursday for the first round lead. … Ricky Barnes (T69) tied the course record with 61 in Round 2. … 3-under played the weekend. 2017: Brendan Steele (-15) Defended his title successfully as he won by two shots. … Trailed by two shots entering the final round in the penultimate group. .. Ball-striking clinic from the Californian as he led the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Tee to Green. … One of six winners to place in the top three in Bogey Avoidance. … Third winner in four to lead Par-5 Scoring. … Third winner in four to finish outside T25 in Strokes-Gained: Putting. Notables: Chesson Hadley (T3) broke 70 once as he posted the course record 61 in Round 2. … Phil Mickelson (T3) didn’t have anything better than 68. … Graham DeLaet, who returns from injury this week, was T5. … Tyler Duncan (T5) co-led after Round 1 and led alone after 36 and 54 holes, closed with 75. … Bud Cauley (T7) played with Steele on Sunday and shot 74 to round out the group at 10-under. … Only seven rounds in the 60s on Sunday as gusty winds and wildfires raged. … Hadley and Mickelson co-led with 23 birdies. … 1-under played the weekend. Key stat leaders Top golfers in each statistic on the 2019-2020 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete this week. * – Previous Top 10 finish at Silverado Strokes-Gained: Off the Tee 3 Sergio Garcia (debut) 5 Jhonattan Vegas 14 Will Gordon (debut) 16 Sam Burns 17 Harold Varner III 25 *Luke List 29 Joel Dahmen 30 Doc Redman 34 Lucas Glover 35 Harry Higgs Scrambling 7 Adam Schenk 9 Mark Anderson 13 *Bud Cauley 14 Cameron Tringale 15 David Hearn 18 Kramer Hickok 22 Russell Knox 24 Tim Wilkinson 26 *Brandt Snedeker 27 Ben Martin 29 Carlos Ortiz 30 Maverick McNealy 32 Shane Lowry SG: Approach the Green 8 Cameron Tringale 10 Doc Redman 13 *Emiliano Grillo (2015 winner) 14 Jim Furyk 16 *Brendan Steele 20 Branden Grace 22 *Cameron Percy 23 *Matthew NeSmith 24 Jason Dufner 26 Russell Knox 28 Harold Varner III 29 Chez Reavie 30 *Chesson Hadley 31 *Nick Watney 32 Lucas Glover Sommeliers Brendan Steele: Two-time champ has been quiet the last two seasons but he’s the all-time money leader by a million bucks. Never missed in all six. Phil Mickelson: Backed up his T8 in 2017 with T3 in 2018 and followed with T17 in 2019 before MC last year. Martin Laird: Only other player in the field other than Steele and Mickelson to hit the top 10 twice since the move here in calendar 2014. Enjoys golf in the West and cashed T3 in 2015 and T8 in 2017. Emiliano Grillo: Won in his first attempt in his first event with a TOUR card. Won the week prior at the KF Tour Championship so he was a bit scalding hot. T26 is his best in four visits since winning. 90 Points Chez Reavie: All six have cashed including three T22 or better but nothing inside top 10. Harold Varner III: Never missed in five. Stroke average of 70.25 comes with an 80 and 79! Top 17 three of last four. Brandt Snedeker: P2 in 2018 hasn’t missed in four tries. Bud Cauley: Four of four as well with T7 in 2018. Charl Schwartzel: Teed it once, T6 with all four rounds in the red 2016.

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