It’s a big mistake to make Tiger vs. Phil a PPV

Newly crowned PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas sat eight strokes out of the lead and +25000 (250 to 1) with BetMGM Sportsbook with 10 holes to play at Southern Hills before becoming the centerpiece of one of the greatest comebacks in major championship golf. After two ultra-impressive 3-under 67s to open the tournament on the tough side of the draw, Thomas stumbled in Saturday’s third round with a 74, leaving him seven strokes back of the lead with 18 holes to play. He fell eight behind after some early errors including a stone-cold shank on the par-3 sixth hole that led to a bogey, not the type of shot typically seen from a major champion. Thomas opened as a +1200 chance with BetMGM but was +3300 to start the final round after dropping into a tie for seventh. “Someone told me he was 15 to 1 before today, which is crazy. I would have taken the other side of that,” Thomas’ father Mike laughed after the odds-defying victory. “There were just too many people in front of him; he was 12th on the leaderboard at one point, but he’s got a lot of guts and he’s got a lot of heart, and he had a good putting week to make things up.” Indeed, Thomas was second in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting (+6.314) and also ranked inside the top 16 in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (+2.638), Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (+8.000) and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (+3.257). We’ve gone behind the numbers and tracked Thomas’ live odds from last Sunday’s final round to see just how miraculous the result turned out to be for the man who now owns a FedExCup, a PLAYERS Championship and two majors. ODDS TIMELINE – Justin Thomas to win PGA Championship (via BetMGM) +3300 – Overnight odds have Thomas at 33 to 1, sitting seven shots back of leader Mito Pereira, before he gets underway on Sunday. +4000 – After opening with two pars, Thomas finds himself short of the green in two on the par-4 third hole. His chip comes up 10 feet short of the hole. +6600 – Thomas misses his 10-foot par putt on the third hole, dropping to 1-under for the tournament, eight shots off the lead. +12500 – Coming off a birdie at the fifth hole and with 5-iron in hand on the par-3 sixth tee, Thomas catches the ball on the hosel, sending a wicked shank out to the right side. While by some miracle he misses a creek, he is still 120 yards from the hole. +15000 – As if the shank wasn’t embarrassment enough, Thomas hits his second shot into a tree and it rebounds into a bunker from the wrong hole, still 100 yards from the pin. He ends up making a great bogey to go back to 1-under. +25000 – Despite a great shot into the par-4 seventh with the same 5-iron he shanked moments earlier, Thomas misses birdie and gets through the par-3 eighth still eight shots off the lead and now running out of holes. +10000 – A lovely approach shot to the par-4 ninth hole, leaving just under 12 feet for birdie, has put some belief back into the bettors. +8000 – Thomas makes his birdie on the ninth hole, sitting seven shots back as he makes the turn. +6600 – A very accurate tee shot down the 10th hole brings with it more faith at BetMGM. +5000 – An even better approach shot to 11 feet on the 10th allows some folks to start dreaming. +6600 – When the birdie try on 10 goes by, there is a sense that so too may have Thomas’ chances at Southern Hills. +2500 – An incredible 64-foot, 7-inch birdie drops for Thomas on the par-3 11th, slashing his odds all the way back to 25 to 1 as the leaders start to stumble. Thomas is now just five back. +2200 – The odds tighten for Thomas a little more at Pereira bogeys the eighth and he sits just four off the pace. +2000 – Pereira’s drive down the ninth hole is bleeding into trouble. Thomas comes in again. +900 – Is this really happening? The 2017 FedExCup champion drains another birdie on the 12th hole and suddenly is headed to a par-5 within just three shots of the lead. +850 – Pereira’s approach on the ninth finds a bunker. +1100 – Pereira makes a great par save on the ninth hole, sending Thomas’ odds drifting again. +900 – The roller coaster begins again as Pereira gets unlucky to miss the 10th green in regulation. +1000 – Pereira hits an incredible chip shot to help secure a par on the par-4 10th. +1200 – Thomas lays up on the par-5 13th. +1100 – Thomas hits a decent wedge to create another chance at birdie. +1000 – One of the challengers, Matt Fitzpatrick, bogeys the 10th, while another in Will Zalatoris has left himself a 16-foot par putt on the 12th hole. +1600 – Thomas misses his chance at birdie on the par-5, and the sportsbooks think that might be costly. +2000 – Thomas sends his tee shot on the par-4 14th into a bunker. +2200 – Pereira secures par on the 11th with a nice two-putt from long distance. +1600 – Pereira’s drive on the 12th ends up in a horrible spot, forcing a chip out back to the fairway. +1400 – Thomas gets up and down for par from the sand on 14. +1600 – Pereira is still in trouble on 12, and has left just under 8 feet for his par. +1100 – Pereira’s par putt won’t drop. His gap over Thomas is now just two shots. +700 – Thomas hits a beautiful approach into the 15th, leaving just 8 feet for birdie. +1000 – As many have done before him Sunday, Thomas misreads the putt on 15 and settles for par. +2000 – Pereira hits a brilliant second shot into the par-5 13th, setting up an 18-foot eagle attempt. +2500 – Thomas loses his tee shot on the 16th hole to the right. +3300 – Pereira misses his eagle but taps in for birdie on 13, while Thomas hits his approach to 16 into a greenside bunker. He trails by three again. +2000 – Pereira sends his tee shot to the par-3 14th long and left. +1400 – Thomas almost holes his long bunker shot on 16. +1200 – Pereira fails to get up and down and bogeys the 14th, leaving Thomas two behind with two to play. +1100 – Zalatoris misses his birdie attempt on 15 from close range. +900 – Thomas sends his tee shot on the drivable par-4 17th into a greenside bunker. +1600 – Pereira rebounds from his bogey with a laser approach inside 10 feet on 15. +1100 – Pereira, like Thomas before him, misreads the putt on 15 and fails to convert his birdie. +800 – Thomas secures a birdie at 17. He’s just one back of the lead. +700 – After a debate with his caddie Jim “Bones” Mackay, Thomas pulls driver out of his bag. +500 – Thomas hits a near perfect drive down the last hole. +300 – Pereira comes up short on his approach to 16. +200 – Pereira’s third shot into the 16th leaves him with a tricky 11-footer to save par. +150 – Thomas takes dead aim on approach at the 72nd hole and flies it next to the pin. It rolls out, leaving just under 11 feet to post another birdie and join the lead. +225 – Pereira makes a clutch par putt at 16 to maintain his one-shot lead. +350 – With seemingly it all on the line, Thomas fails to nudge the birdie home on the 18th and now must wait after a beautiful 3-under 67 leaves him in the clubhouse lead at 5-under. +600 – Zalatoris birdies the 17th. +500 – Fitzpatrick finds the creek off the tee on 17 and Pereira’s drive doesn’t reach the putting surface. +350 – Pereira hits a great putt for his birdie on the 17th but it stops a revolution short of the hole. He settles for par and a one-shot lead heading to the last hole. -154 – Pereira produces a wild tee shot that slices hard right and finds its way into the water. +110 – Zalatoris makes a clutch up-and-down from in front of the 18th green to join Thomas in the clubhouse at 5-under. -125 – After hitting his third shot long and left of the green, Pereira faces a tricky up-and-down to join a playoff. His chip shot trickles off the front of the green and he’s unable to hole out from there. -137 – The double bogey from Pereira leaves Thomas fighting Zalatoris over a three-hole aggregate playoff. Thomas is the favorite before they begin. +120 – Starting on the par-5 13th, Thomas sends his drive into the rough while Zalatoris is in the fairway. -118 – Thomas hits a lovely wedge inside 10 feet after a forced lay-up, leaving him with a very likely birdie. He secures the birdie, but so too does Zalatoris. -200 – Thomas hits perhaps one of the shots of the week by driving the second playoff hole (the par-4 17th). -303 – Zalatoris can’t match Thomas and is short of the putting surface. -222 – Zalatoris chips up to close range, leaving him a chance to match Thomas with birdies after Thomas misses his eagle attempt. -500 – Zalatoris watches his birdie try from inside 10 feet slide by, leaving Thomas a shot ahead with one to play. -1000 – Thomas pumps his drive perfectly down the final hole. -2500 – Zalatoris hits a decent drive but doesn’t match Thomas for distance or optimal angle. His approach finds the green but sucks back and sits against the fringe, some 45 feet away. -10000 – Thomas sends his 9-iron approach to 25 feet, from where he two-putts to win his second PGA Championship.

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Our guys take very different directions for the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, but both have merit because of the construct and quality of the field. Pick your poison. So as not to generate confusion, only their TOURNAMENT picks as presented on the interface at the time they filed are provided below. Like you, they are unaware of which bets will be offered in ROUND 1 and beyond. Register for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live here and monitor Rob’s and Glass’ progress as Influencers. For a broader explanation of the format and FAQs, click here. TOURNAMENT TO WIN Rob … Brendon Todd (+4000) When a favorite wins, I’ve been left behind. This happened (again) last week in Bermuda where had I opened with Seamus Power at +2000 like the majority (I got him at just +185 late on Sunday), I’d have finished inside the top 10 overall. So, perhaps the final piece of this puzzle is to stop reaching because we can and compromise with a pick more likely to convert. The field at Mayakoba is considerably deeper than the one that Power – I’m going for it, you know me – overpowered, so there’s a greater likelihood that a similarly strong week with 3-balls – and 2-balls if offered – won’t require the favorite to fare better. Yet, I’m tickled by the value of this kickback for the 2019 champion of the tournament. He’s added a T8 and a T11 since, and his scoring average in his last dozen rounds around the place is sub-67. So, I’ll start here, but I plan to finish here, too. Glass … Danny Lee (+20000) Saddling up a HORSE FOR COURSE on one of his favorite venues. Recent form suggests 200-1 is just about right, but the light goes on when he lands at Mayakoba. Start on the fringes and work your way back to the chalk as the event moves forward. TOP USA PLAYER Glass … Aaron Wise (+1800) Going a bit more conservative here as I don’t have time all weekend to wait for windows to open or close. Wise has gone close here before and he’s teeing it up for the seventh time. He’s won a shootout before (Trinity Forest) where 23-under was required to win. T6 last time out at Congaree. Should have the flight plan for takeoff. Rob … Brendon Todd (+2500) Sure, I could hedge, but doubling down on my outright is more fun. Despite this mild kickback, 10 other Yanks open with shorter odds. So, because the board is relatively flat, those who win the direct deposit likely will have connected with this prop. Remember, only the outright stays open during competition. If this bet opens, it would be late in the evening and during the overnight hours in North America. TOP 10 Glass … David Lipsky (+1000) Two top 10s in 2022, both on paspalum. One was at Vidanta, a Greg Norman design just like El Camaleón. The other was at Corales. Sweet spot at age 34. Here’s where the gambling begins as we need to be on our toes to catch the window as the event rolls on. If necessary, of course. Rob … Brendon Todd (+400) It’s not customary to bury a link to my Power Rankings this deep on the page on which I’ve endorsed Todd throughout, but it’s most relevant to direct you to it here. Why? Well, he’s No. 8 in it and I’m more likely to stick with this bet than I am Top USA Player if that unlocks. NOTE: While Glass and Rob typically stick with their selections as detailed in Pick ‘Em Preview, they are allowed the right to make changes at any time. Responsible sports betting starts with a game plan. Set a budget. Keep it social. Play with friends. Learn the game and know the odds. Play with trusted, licensed operators. CLICK HERE to learn more at HaveAGamePlan.org.

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AUGUSTA, Ga. – On a star-studded leaderboard, Tiger Woods is firmly in the mix entering Saturday’s third round of the Masters. Tiger begins his weekend chase of his fifth green jacket just one shot back of the five co-leaders at Augusta National. We’ll have hole-by-hole updates after Tiger tees off at 2:05 p.m. ET, so check this file often. MORE MASTERS Leaderboard | Tales of Tiger’s equipment | Rd. 2 recap: Tiger one back entering weekend Pre-round notes TIGER’S PUTTING: Through the first two rounds, Tiger has been great from long range … and horrible from short range. From outside 20 feet, Tiger ranks first in the field, making 5 of 15 attempts for a rate of 33.33%. No other player in the field has made more than three putts from that distance. From inside 5 feet, however, Tiger has missed three of his 29 putts, leaving his conversion rate at 89.66%. Among the 65 players who made that cut, the only player with a worse percentage is amateur Alvaro Ortiz at 89.29%. From 5-10 feet, though, Ortiz leads the field, making all eight of his attempts. Woods has missed four of his eight attempts (50%). Just 12 players have lower percentage rates than Tiger from that distance. FAMILIAR PAIRING: Tiger is paired with Englishman Ian Poulter for the third round at the Masters for the second consecutive year. Both were well off the pace when they played together a year ago, with Tiger shooting an even-par 72 to end the round tied for 40th, while Poulter shot a 74 to drop into a tie for 50th at that point. Saturday will be the sixth round that Woods and Poulter have been in the same group at a PGA TOUR event. The first time was at THE PLAYERS Championship in 2010 when they were in the same threesome for the first two rounds. The last time was at THE NORTHERN TRUST during last season’s FedExCup Playoffs. Four times, Woods has shot the better score, and the other time they recorded the same score. RECENT SATURDAYS AT AUGUSTA: When Tiger won his last green jacket in 2005, he shot a 7-under 65 that moved him from six shots behind to three strokes ahead. That 65 tied for his lowest round in his Masters career – in fact, both of his 65s at Augusta National have happened in the third round. In his 10 starts since 2005, Tiger has shot in the 60s just twice in the third round, a 68 in 2008 and another 68 in 2015.

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