NOTE: For the first three events of the FedExCup Playoffs, Rob will focus only on golfers outside the bubble to advance. In this second edition, all five below open the Playoffs outside the top 70 in points. Jamie Lovemark … With three top 10s among eight top 25s on the season, it seems like a misprint that he’s 79th in FedExCup points. Pile on his pair of 66s to begin the Playoffs last week and shared leads after both of the first two rounds, and it feels like cheating to drop him in this grouping. His bane is the final round during which he ranks 164th on TOUR in scoring average, so he continues to present as a prototypical non-winner who might need to slingshot from way behind on a Sunday – or Monday as it the case this week – to break through. The 30-year-old possesses all of the other attributes to do it. Branden Grace … At least he’s consistent. With last week’s missed cut at Ridgewood, he’s now 0-for-3 in Playoffs openers. He regains our attention at TPC Boston because he’s finished T41 (2016) and T25 (2017). His scorecards will need to be prettier than his pair of over-par totals in each previous visit if he’s going to advance as the 91-seed, but he’s recorded four top 10s worldwide in 2018, two of which lifted him into his current position. Russell Knox … At 93rd in the FedExCup standings, he’s lowest-ranked among the five on this page, but if you were going to circle any of the 30 outside the top 70 to connect for a top 20 to advance, the Scot would (read: should) populate your short list. He’d probably need a top 10 to be safe, but every top 20 since this version of the scoring system was introduced in 2015 has survived. It was just early last month when he shared runner-up honors in Paris, and then prevailed in Ireland. He’s slowed since, but he’s 4-for-4 at TPC Boston with a pair of top 15s. Still inside the top 20 on the PGA TOUR in both greens in regulation and proximity to the hole despite the recent slide. Kevin Chappell … His reputation as a tough-track specialist is implied now at age 32, but it’s still notable when he appears on a course that’s defined otherwise. Since 2013, he’s 5-for-5 at TPC Boston with a pair of top 15s and a T22. That’s the kind of action he’ll need to vault from the 88th in FedExCup points and into the BMW Championship. It’d also mark a significant departure of form that’s yielded only one top-25 finish in the last five months (T6, Open Championship), so the horse-for-a-course angle will get tested. Joel Dahmen … Bonus time. Competing on house points. Whatever your spin, it’s accurate for the Playoffs debutant. Somewhat overlooked during his torrid July that boosted him over 70 spots in the FedExCup ranking was that he had already been stockpiling sturdy weeks to make the month count. Now 76th, he faces elimination on a course that better suits his outstanding ball-striking and greenside game. To turn another phrase, he’s dangerous because he has nothing to lose.
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