NOTE: If you play PGA TOUR Champions One & Done presented by SERVPRO, the Pacific Links Bear Mountain Championship begins on Friday. For my recommendations among notables in the field, scroll to the bottom of the page. With only the BMW Championship and TOUR Championship remaining in 2016-17, it would probably be easier to conduct a Q&A session to review your possibilities. Of course, you know I’m happy to do just that in the thread below, on Twitter (public or private) and via email (to [email protected]), but that’s the irony of the season. You need less advice and direction as your league championship hangs in the balance for you’ve likely whittled your choices accordingly. Still, simple reminders never hurt. For starters, make sure you have at least one guy available to burn at the TOUR Championship. The current points structure took hold in 2015 when points distributed in the Playoffs were reduced by 20 percent, but all of the top 21 in the FedExCup standings entering the BMW Championship advanced in all of the first 10 editions of the Playoffs. It’s not a guarantee for the top 21, mind you, but you need to draw the line somewhere to establish a plan. Reviewing the golfers in Future Possibilities below beside whom the TOUR Championship appears, only Jordan Spieth (1), Dustin Johnson (3), Paul Casey (8) and Justin Rose (17) are currently inside the top 21 in points. Conveniently, each has a terrific record at East Lake. Of course, if any are still available to you because you’ve mapped it out that way, then you already knew this, but anxiety still must be replaced by execution to pay it off. Others worthy of a look next week include Daniel Berger (11) and Kevin Kisner (14) for the sole reason that both will be putting on Bermudagrass. Once you’ve worked backward and selected your charge for the finale, the BMW presents like any other tournament. Both previous champions at Conway Farms don’t line up as favorably as we would have hoped. Zach Johnson (2013) and Jason Day (2015) are worthy finds in mid-September, but it’s likely that your opposition in pursuit will be on board more than front-runners. Both are in that rare positions as contrarians given all of the current variables. I shifted Day from this event to THE NORTHERN TRUST because I didn’t want him on the bubble at the BMW. It may prove to be the turning point of my season as he yielded a T6 at Glen Oaks but now sits 28th in points, while it also opened the door to slide Justin Thomas into place at Conway Farms. Thomas is fresh off victory at the Dell Technologies Championship. He won the PGA Championship and placed T6 at THE NORTHERN TRUST before that. While One & Doners often prefer not to choose the winner of the previous tournament, if you’re going to buck tradition, you want to do it during the Playoffs when there’s precedent for momentum. There have been five occurrences of a golfer winning consecutive tournaments in Playoffs history. Billy Horschel was the last in 2014. If you’re also chasing, it could be worth ignoring my advice of holstering Spieth, DJ and Casey in favor of a burning any of the three right now. (Rose would be your guy at East Lake.) Not unlike the ninth frame in bowling, your game can be determined in your penultimate performance. Positioning won’t mean anything unless you convert and put a mark on the board now. Two-man gamers who can still build a threatening lineup deserve the annual golf clap. Depending on your flexibility, you’re likely forced into reserving at least one of your spots for a long shot to advance. Snagging one from the likes of Patrick Cantlay (41), Charl Schwartzel (43), Chez Reavie (46), Keegan Bradley (48), Jamie Lovemark (58), Rafa Cabrera Bello (60) and Bud Cauley (68) would be timely. FUTURE POSSIBILITIES NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2016-17. All are pending golfer commitment. Daniel Berger … BMW Paul Casey … TOUR Championship Jason Day … BMW; TOUR Championship Jason Dufner … TOUR Championship Rickie Fowler … BMW Sergio Garcia … TOUR Championship Billy Horschel … TOUR Championship Dustin Johnson … BMW (defending on a different course); TOUR Championship Zach Johnson … BMW; TOUR Championship Hideki Matsuyama … BMW Rory McIlroy … BMW; TOUR Championship (defending) Ryan Moore … TOUR Championship Justin Rose … TOUR Championship Charl Schwartzel … BMW Jordan Spieth … TOUR Championship Henrik Stenson … TOUR Championship Gary Woodland … TOUR Championship CHAMPIONS ONE & DONE NOTABLES Pacific Links Bear Mountain Championship After its debut in 2016, Bear Mountain Resort’s Mountain Course in Victoria, British Columbia, is hosting again. It’s a par 71 with four par 5s (three on the inward side) and five par 3s, and it tips at 6,881 yards. The total prize money is $2.5 million, highest of the three remaining events in PGA TOUR Champions One & Done presented by SERVPRO. Golfers listed alphabetically. Rob’s serious considerations in bold. Stephen Ames … Lives in Vancouver, but he finished T54 last year. T19 at the Shaw in Calgary two weeks ago was one of four straight top 20s. Tenth in earnings with seven top 10s. Marco Dawson … Sneaky but inconsistent. Two top 10s in his last four starts but they’re also his only top 20s in his last eight. Tied for seventh here last year. Scott Dunlap … Disappointed us last week with a T44 at Narita, but worth the plunge again. He connected six top 20s prior to the trip to Japan and landed a T3 at Bear Mountain last year. Joe Durant … Stumbled to a T34 in Japan, but figures to rebound despite a T28 here last year when he settled for an even-par 71 in the final round. Bob Estes … Took last week off after a T10 at the Shaw. Timely wild card no matter your position. Steve Flesch … A T15 at the JAPAN AIRLINES Championship extended his top-20 streak to eight in a row. Has nine in 11 starts since turning 50 in May. Doug Garwood … A rare inclusion here but worth your attention after a T3 at Bear Mountain last year. Nine top 25s this season, including a T22 in Japan. Sits 37th in earnings. Todd Hamilton … Was poised to deliver on the Japan connection but drifted to T9 in the finale. However, he’s connected top 10s for the first time in his PGA TOUR Champions career. Lee Janzen … Loves himself par 3s but he’s just off the radar to warrant even a flier at Bear Mountain where he finished a steady T28 last year. Jerry Kelly … Answered his breakthrough at the Boeing with a T6 at the Shaw. Top 25s in 12 of his 14 starts. A brilliant option this late if you have the means. Bernhard Langer … Given the purse, if you’ve yet to burn him, it’s time. Shared seventh place last year, albeit needing a closing 63. Four-time winner this season. No. 1 in earnings. Tom Lehman … Bear Mountain debut, but he’s been in a funk in recent starts. After nine straight top 20s, he’s gone four straight without one. Scott McCarron … Opened last year’s P2 with a 62. Thrice a winner in his last seven starts entering this week. T2 at the JAPAN AIRLINES Championship. Colin Montgomerie … No-brainer. Prevailed in a playoff over Scott McCarron at Bear Mountain last year and beat McCarron and Billy Mayfair by one for victory in Japan last week. Scott Parel … Coming on a bit in the last month with four straight top 20s. T9 in Japan last week. Closed out a T12 here last year with a 7-under, 35-29=64. Corey Pavin … Sets up well for his debut at Bear Mountain and placed T9 last week in Japan. So hit and miss, though. Best suited for front-runners. Jeff Sluman … Continues to produce. T15 in Japan marked his 12th top 25 of 2017. T3 at Bear Mountain last year. Turned 60 years of age on Monday. David Toms … His T6 at the Boeing Classic is his only top 20 since May. Scott Verplank … Poor showings in his last two starts and a T57 last year. We need more promise at this point. Duffy Waldorf … T12 here last year, but rapidly falling out of favor for a spot with only one finish better than a T20 in his last 10 starts.
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