Officialsportsbetting.com Golf Betting How difficult is it to follow up a low score with another low score?

How difficult is it to follow up a low score with another low score?

You hear the traditional wisdom all the time – it’s difficult to follow a great round of golf with another great round. While this notion is intuitively appealing, it could also be a product of confirmation bias: whenever a golfer plays poorly following a low round, golf analysts and observers are quick to use that wisdom as an explanation, thus confirming the theory. However, when a player goes low on consecutive rounds, it’s not used as evidence to discount the theory. As usual, the truth reveals itself in the data.  Using round-level data on the PGA TOUR from 2000-2016, we first calculate each player’s baseline relative-to-field scoring average on a 3-year rolling basis (this will be the measure of each player’s typical performance at any given point in time). Then, for each round played, we calculate the difference between a player’s relative-to-field score that day, and their baseline relative-to-field score; let’s refer to this as “personal strokes-gained.â€� Example: If Phil Mickelson typically beats the field by 1 shot, and then plays a round where he beats the field score by 4 shots, his personal strokes-gained would be 3. We want to look at the relationship between a player’s performance in a given round to his performance in the round that follows. For our purposes, we classify rounds into different “bins”; for instance, one bin is defined as the set of rounds where a player had a personal strokes gained of 8 or more. The other bins are defined similarly — rounds with personal strokes gained of 6-8 shots, 4-6 shots and so on down to -8 or worse shots. We’ll then assess the distribution of personal strokes gained depending on which bin a player’s previous round belonged to. Sticking with the Mickelson example, where we have assumed Phil typically beats the field by 1 shot, suppose he beats the field by 5 shots following a round when he beat the field by 4 shots? In the first of these two rounds, Phil’s personal strokes gained was 3 shots, so he enters the “2-4 shots” bin, and the object of interest to us is then how Phil plays in the next round (in this case above, he had a personal strokes gained of 4). We do this for all players and rounds and are able to obtain “conditional distributions” of personal strokes gained, where we are conditioning on how a player played in his previous round (as defined by the bins). In lay terms, we are simply looking at the personal strokes-gained of the set of players who all fell into the same bin in their previous round, and looking for any differences between these sets of players (ex: do those who had 2-4 personal strokes gained in their previous round play better than those who had 0-2 personal strokes-gained in their previous round?). To start, the average personal strokes-gained for each bin is shown below: A very clean relationship emerges; if you’ve played well in the previous round, it is more likely, on average, you will play well in the following round. The analogous statement holds for poor play. This is not all that surprising; it simply means that form, good or bad, tends to last more than a single round. Although, there clearly is a tendency to regress to the mean at work here as well. The next figure gives a better sense of the entire distribution of personal strokes-gained conditional on playing at a certain level in the previous round: The horizontal bar in each box is the median of the data, the upper and lower bounds of each box is the 75th percentile and 25th percentile respectively, and the ends of the lines are the maximum and minimum values excluding outliers (where an outlier is defined as 1.5* the 75th percentile, and 1.5* the 25th percentile). Note that the most extreme rounds are contained in the middle bins; this is expected as these bins contain by far the largest number of rounds, and consequently there is the greatest potential for an outlier to emerge. In this final figure we report a transition matrix, reporting the probability of moving from one bin to the next in consecutive rounds. There is a lot of interesting information here, so take a long look: To ensure you are interpreting this correctly, the top left box states the following: given a player’s personal strokes gained was 8 or better in their previous round, there is a 1.35 percent chance that their personal strokes-gained is negative 8 or worse in the next round. It is surprising to us how well-defined the relationship is between a player’s performance in one round to the next. For example, consider the column for bin (2-4); as you move from the bottom row to the top row we are looking at the set of players who played increasingly better in their previous round, and the probability of entering the (2-4) bin is increasing monotonically, just as expected. Finally, the answer to the initial question: there is no evidence supporting the claim that it is more difficult to follow up a great round with a good round. A big reason this claim makes sense intuitively is that it is simply very unlikely to shoot a really good round (say, 6 or more strokes better than usual). Therefore, it’s unlikely that an exceptional round will be followed by another exceptional round — but this is always the case irrespective of a player’s performance in the previous round. Brothers Matt and Will Courchene grew up in a Canadian household full of golf fanatics. In 2016, they launched a DataGolf blog in hopes of contributing fresh and unbiased insights to the sport. Matt, a PhD student at the Vancouver School of Economics, focuses on applied econometrics and causal inference, while Will, who has a Masters of Economics from the University of Toronto, focuses on statistical modeling and data visualization.

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Final Round 2-Balls - J. Guerrier / O. Lindell
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Julien Guerrier-110
Oliver Lindell+120
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Final Round 2-Balls - W. Nienaber / Y. Paul
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Wilco Nienaber+110
Tie+750
Final Round 2-Balls - E. Molinari / R. Langasque
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Romain Langasque-105
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Tie+750
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Final Round 2-Balls - E. Ferguson / J. Luiten
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Final Round 2-Balls - M. Couvra / M. Lindberg
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Final Round 2-Balls - M. Katsu / J. Shin
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Russell Henley-135
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Julia Lopez Ramirez+115
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Final Round 2-Balls - M. Thorbjornsen / B. Harman
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Final Round 2-Balls - R. Takeda / K. Gillman
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Kristen Gillman+225
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Final Round 2-Balls - V. Hovland / N. Dunlap
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Nick Dunlap+185
Viktor Hovland-170
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Carlota Ciganda+115
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Denny McCarthy+100
Tom Hoge+110
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Andrea Lee+160
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Maverick McNealy+105
Min Woo Lee+105
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Jeeno Thitikul-135
Celine Boutier+150
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Christiaan Bezuidenhout+100
Joe Highsmith+110
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Mackenzie Hughes+425
Harry Higgs+600
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Final Round 2-Balls - E. Van Rooyen / W. Zalatoris
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Will Zalatoris-115
Erik Van Rooyen+125
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Aaron Rai-110
Ben Griffin+120
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Adam Scott+100
Cam Davis+110
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Brian Campbell+125
Patrick Rodgers-115
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Ryan Gerard+100
Thomas Detry+110
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Alex Noren+110
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Final Round Match-Ups - G. Woodland / R. Hojgaard
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Rasmus Hojgaard-125
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Davis Thompson-125
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Davis Thompson-120
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Collin Morikawa+1600
Brooks Koepka+1800
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Viktor Hovland+2000
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Ludvig Aberg+1400
Collin Morikawa+1600
Jon Rahm+1600
Bryson DeChambeau+2000
Shane Lowry+2500
Tommy Fleetwood+2500
Tyrrell Hatton+2500
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USA-150
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U.S. Open roundtable: How significant was Koepka’s win?U.S. Open roundtable: How significant was Koepka’s win?

SOUTHAMPTON, N.Y. — Each day at U.S. Open, PGATOUR.COM’s staff writers will dive into the big issues and questions everyone is discussing. Brooks Koepka went back-to-back for just the seventh time in U.S. Open history. Just how significant is that? Ben Everill, Staff Writer: It’s pretty impressive if you ask me. Especially as it came on two completely different styles of course. Erin Hills was a birdie fest for the bombers. Shinnecock Hills was a grind for everyone. I’ve just heard Koepka is lobbying for Pebble Beach to be renamed Pebble “Hillsâ€� for next year. Sean Martin, Events Editor: It’s historic. Ben Hogan, Curtis Strange and now Koepka are the only men to do it since World War II. And, in contemporary terms, only four of the top 50 players in the world have multiple majors. And he’s only 28. Cameron Morfit, Staff Writer: Very. A lot of guys would shrink from that sort of weighty history. I loved his swagger, and he totally backed it up. Jonathan Wall, Equipment Insider: In terms of golf history, I think it’s very significant. Winning a major isn’t easy; going back-to-back at the U.S. Open by the age of 28 is even more impressive. Not only that, he managed to show his entire arsenal by going low to win at Erin Hills and grinding it out at Shinnecock. His game clearly travels. Brooks is now a multiple major winner… what are you expecting from him over the next 5-10 years? Everill: Given his outstanding finishes in major championships over the last couple of years – he has been top 25 in 13 of his last 15 majors and top 10 in seven of those – I certainly can’t rule out further victories. He’s only 28 and an absolute specimen of an athlete. If he doubles his total in the next five years I won’t be shocked. Martin: Predictions are a fool’s errand, so here we go. As long as he can stay healthy, I think he can pick up two more majors in the next decade. He has finished no worse than T21 in his past 11 majors. He gives himself lots of opportunities in the big events. I see a FedExCup in his future for that very reason. Morfit: Trophies. It’s odd to me that he hasn’t racked up more Ws, but he’s only 28 and spent a good chunk of his career in Europe. I think he’s got a game that can travel anywhere, and his caddie, Ricky Elliott, was telling me he’s long been one of the best putters on TOUR.   Wall: He’s now finished inside the top 25 in 13 of his last 15 major championships. If he continues to produce competitive finishes at a similar clip, he’ll likely get at least two more over the next 5-10 years. I don’t think it’s that far of a stretch to say he gets to five or six if a few breaks go his way. At this point, the only thing holding him back is his health.  Tommy Fleetwood’s round was just the sixth 63 in U.S. Open history. Where do his efforts rank in your mind? 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I like everything about this guy but especially his demeanor.  Wall: Shooting 63 at Shinnecock Hills is incredibly impressive and has to go down as one of the best rounds in major championship history based on what was at stake Sunday. That being said, the USGA made the course more gettable after Saturday’s fiasco. It’s a minor footnote that likely won’t be mentioned when people remember Fleetwood’s impressive round.  Tony Finau has finished in the top-10 of both majors this year. Will he break through at some point? Everill: He certainly has the talent. Finau himself says he is built for championship golf. I’d like to see him get his second PGA TOUR win before I am ready to endorse him as a likely major winner of the near future though. He’s a champion guy so you can’t help but wish him success. Wall: Similar to Brooks Koepka, he’s a twenty-something bomber who could break out at any given moment. I don’t think it’s a matter of if but when Finau gets a major. 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Inside the Field: The Honda ClassicInside the Field: The Honda Classic

The PGA TOUR uses a standardized system for determining event fields, based off the current season’s Priority Ranking while also including additional exemption and qualifying categories. Field sizes can vary by event, as can the number of event-specific exemptions. Fully exempt PGA TOUR members are guaranteed entry into all full-field events, with various conditional categories subject to periodic reshuffles based upon FedExCup Points accrued throughout the season. Categories with ‘reshuffle’ notation indicate that a reshuffle period has occurred. How the field qualified for The Honda Classic as of 2/18/2022: Check here for updates. Winner of U.S. Open Championship (five-year exemption) Brooks Koepka Gary Woodland Winner of PGA Championship (five-year exemption) Jimmy Walker Winner of Masters Tournament (five-year exemption) Patrick Reed Danny Willett Winner of The Open (five-year exemption) Shane Lowry Henrik Stenson Winner of World Golf Championships event (three-year exemption) Billy Horschel PGA TOUR tournament winner (two-year exemption) Daniel Berger Stewart Cink Tyler Duncan Rickie Fowler Dylan Frittelli Brian Gay Lucas Glover Lucas Herbert Jim Herman Garrick Higgo Charles Howell III Sungjae Im Matt Jones Sung Kang Andrew Landry Nate Lashley K.H. Lee Keith Mitchell Joaquin Niemann Ryan Palmer C.T. Pan J.T. Poston Robert Streb Hudson Swafford Nick Taylor Michael Thompson Brendon Todd Martin Trainer Kevin Tway Richy Werenski Matthew Wolff Career money exemption Luke Donald Bill Haas Rory Sabbatini Nick Watney * Sponsor’s exemption (Korn Ferry Tour Finals) Martin Kaymer Camilo Villegas Sponsor’s exemption (members not otherwise exempt) Jason Dufner Padraig Harrington Sponsor’s exemption (unrestricted) Nicolai Hojgaard Chase Koepka Kyle Westmoreland PGA Section Champion\Player of the Year Alan Morin Life Member. Davis Love III Top 125 on prior season’s FedExCup Louis Oosthuizen Alex Noren Brian Harman Cameron Tringale Aaron Wise Lee Westwood Charl Schwartzel Jhonattan Vegas Chris Kirk Kevin Streelman Harry Higgs Mackenzie Hughes Ian Poulter Doug Ghim Brandon Hagy Adam Schenk Kramer Hickok Brian Stuard Doc Redman Roger Sloan Hank Lebioda Tyler McCumber Denny McCarthy Brendan Steele Sepp Straka Zach Johnson Russell Knox Sam Ryder Matthew NeSmith Kyle Stanley Anirban Lahiri Brice Garnett # Major medical extension. William McGirt Wesley Bryan Seung-Yul Noh Kelly Kraft Korn Ferry Tour Points winners (The 25 and The Finals 25) Stephan Jaeger Three-time winner from Korn Ferry Tour Mito Pereira Korn Ferry Tour graduates via The 25 and The Finals 25 (reshuffled) Cameron Young Patrick Rodgers Hayden Buckley J.J. Spaun Taylor Pendrith Taylor Moore Vince Whaley Aaron Rai Alex Smalley Trey Mullinax John Huh Davis Riley Chad Ramey Max McGreevy Greyson Sigg Seth Reeves Curtis Thompson Andrew Novak Bronson Burgoon Austin Cook Matthias Schwab Lee Hodges Christiaan Bezuidenhout Nick Hardy Adam Svensson Justin Lower David Skinns David Lipsky Dawie van der Walt Peter Uihlein Michael Gligic Paul Barjon Dylan Wu Brandon Wu Chris Stroud Kiradech Aphibarnrat Austin Smotherman Ben Kohles Brett Drewitt Kurt Kitayama Joshua Creel Jared Wolfe Callum Tarren Grayson Murray Nos. 126-150 on prior season’s FedExCup Points List (reshuffled) Mark Hubbard Tommy Fleetwood Jim Knous Beau Hossler Chase Seiffert * = If all prior year Korn Ferry Tour graduates are eligible for event, exemptions become unrestricted # = Latest medical extension information can be found here. $ = Category breakdown can be found here.

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