You hear the traditional wisdom all the time – it’s difficult to follow a great round of golf with another great round. While this notion is intuitively appealing, it could also be a product of confirmation bias: whenever a golfer plays poorly following a low round, golf analysts and observers are quick to use that wisdom as an explanation, thus confirming the theory. However, when a player goes low on consecutive rounds, it’s not used as evidence to discount the theory. As usual, the truth reveals itself in the data. Using round-level data on the PGA TOUR from 2000-2016, we first calculate each player’s baseline relative-to-field scoring average on a 3-year rolling basis (this will be the measure of each player’s typical performance at any given point in time). Then, for each round played, we calculate the difference between a player’s relative-to-field score that day, and their baseline relative-to-field score; let’s refer to this as “personal strokes-gained.â€� Example: If Phil Mickelson typically beats the field by 1 shot, and then plays a round where he beats the field score by 4 shots, his personal strokes-gained would be 3. We want to look at the relationship between a player’s performance in a given round to his performance in the round that follows. For our purposes, we classify rounds into different “bins”; for instance, one bin is defined as the set of rounds where a player had a personal strokes gained of 8 or more. The other bins are defined similarly — rounds with personal strokes gained of 6-8 shots, 4-6 shots and so on down to -8 or worse shots. We’ll then assess the distribution of personal strokes gained depending on which bin a player’s previous round belonged to. Sticking with the Mickelson example, where we have assumed Phil typically beats the field by 1 shot, suppose he beats the field by 5 shots following a round when he beat the field by 4 shots? In the first of these two rounds, Phil’s personal strokes gained was 3 shots, so he enters the “2-4 shots” bin, and the object of interest to us is then how Phil plays in the next round (in this case above, he had a personal strokes gained of 4). We do this for all players and rounds and are able to obtain “conditional distributions” of personal strokes gained, where we are conditioning on how a player played in his previous round (as defined by the bins). In lay terms, we are simply looking at the personal strokes-gained of the set of players who all fell into the same bin in their previous round, and looking for any differences between these sets of players (ex: do those who had 2-4 personal strokes gained in their previous round play better than those who had 0-2 personal strokes-gained in their previous round?). To start, the average personal strokes-gained for each bin is shown below: A very clean relationship emerges; if you’ve played well in the previous round, it is more likely, on average, you will play well in the following round. The analogous statement holds for poor play. This is not all that surprising; it simply means that form, good or bad, tends to last more than a single round. Although, there clearly is a tendency to regress to the mean at work here as well. The next figure gives a better sense of the entire distribution of personal strokes-gained conditional on playing at a certain level in the previous round: The horizontal bar in each box is the median of the data, the upper and lower bounds of each box is the 75th percentile and 25th percentile respectively, and the ends of the lines are the maximum and minimum values excluding outliers (where an outlier is defined as 1.5* the 75th percentile, and 1.5* the 25th percentile). Note that the most extreme rounds are contained in the middle bins; this is expected as these bins contain by far the largest number of rounds, and consequently there is the greatest potential for an outlier to emerge. In this final figure we report a transition matrix, reporting the probability of moving from one bin to the next in consecutive rounds. There is a lot of interesting information here, so take a long look: To ensure you are interpreting this correctly, the top left box states the following: given a player’s personal strokes gained was 8 or better in their previous round, there is a 1.35 percent chance that their personal strokes-gained is negative 8 or worse in the next round. It is surprising to us how well-defined the relationship is between a player’s performance in one round to the next. For example, consider the column for bin (2-4); as you move from the bottom row to the top row we are looking at the set of players who played increasingly better in their previous round, and the probability of entering the (2-4) bin is increasing monotonically, just as expected. Finally, the answer to the initial question: there is no evidence supporting the claim that it is more difficult to follow up a great round with a good round. A big reason this claim makes sense intuitively is that it is simply very unlikely to shoot a really good round (say, 6 or more strokes better than usual). Therefore, it’s unlikely that an exceptional round will be followed by another exceptional round — but this is always the case irrespective of a player’s performance in the previous round. Brothers Matt and Will Courchene grew up in a Canadian household full of golf fanatics. In 2016, they launched a DataGolf blog in hopes of contributing fresh and unbiased insights to the sport. Matt, a PhD student at the Vancouver School of Economics, focuses on applied econometrics and causal inference, while Will, who has a Masters of Economics from the University of Toronto, focuses on statistical modeling and data visualization.
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Final Round 2-Balls - J. Guerrier / O. Lindell | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Julien Guerrier | -110 |
Oliver Lindell | +120 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - W. Nienaber / Y. Paul | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Yannik Paul | +100 |
Wilco Nienaber | +110 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - E. Molinari / R. Langasque | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Romain Langasque | -105 |
Edoardo Molinari | +115 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - M. Southgate / M. Kinhult | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Marcus Kinhult | +100 |
Matthew Southgate | +110 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - T. Clements / T. Christensen | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Todd Clements | -175 |
Tiger Christensen | +190 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - E. Ferguson / J. Luiten | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Joost Luiten | -110 |
Ewen Ferguson | +120 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - M. Couvra / M. Lindberg | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Martin Couvra | -135 |
Mikael Lindberg | +150 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - M. Jordan / J. Smith | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Jordan Smith | -110 |
Matthew Jordan | +120 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - H. Li / R. Williams | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Haotong Li | -175 |
Robin Williams | +190 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - J. Campillo / B. Robinson | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Jorge Campillo | +100 |
Brandon Robinson-Thompson | +110 |
Tie | +750 |
Mizuho Americas Open | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
Jeeno Thitikul | +100 |
Nelly Korda | +335 |
Celine Boutier | +400 |
Andrea Lee | +850 |
Yealimi Noh | +1400 |
Carlota Ciganda | +3000 |
Rio Takeda | +7000 |
Lydia Ko | +17500 |
Kristen Gillman | +30000 |
Somi Lee | +35000 |
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Final Round 2-Balls - M. Katsu / J. Shin | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Minami Katsu | +100 |
Jenny Shin | +110 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - J. Bae / J. Kupcho | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Jennifer Kupcho | -145 |
Jenny Bae | +165 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - G. Higgo / S. Theegala | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Garrick Higgo | +125 |
Sahith Theegala | -115 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - M. Lee / H. Naveed | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Minjee Lee | -180 |
Hira Naveed | +200 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - M. Pavon / M. Greyserman | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Matthieu Pavon | +130 |
Max Greyserman | -120 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - S. Kyriacou / L. Duncan | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Lindy Duncan | +105 |
Stephanie Kyriacou | +105 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - L. Aberg / T. Pendrith | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Ludvig Aberg | -135 |
Taylor Pendrith | +150 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - P. Tavatanakit / A. Yubol | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Patty Tavatanakit | -130 |
Arpichaya Yubol | +145 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - C. Kirk / A. Hadwin | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Adam Hadwin | +110 |
Chris Kirk | +100 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - R. Yin / A. Kim | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Ruoning Yin | -160 |
Auston Kim | +180 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - W. Clark / L. Glover | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Lucas Glover | +120 |
Wyndham Clark | -110 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - L. Ko / S. Lee | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Lydia Ko | -135 |
Somi Lee | +150 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - A. Eckroat / R. Henley | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Austin Eckroat | +150 |
Russell Henley | -135 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - J. Lopez / E. Szokol | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Elizabeth Szokol | -105 |
Julia Lopez Ramirez | +115 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - M. Thorbjornsen / B. Harman | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Brian Harman | -110 |
Michael Thorbjornsen | +120 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - R. Takeda / K. Gillman | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Rio Takeda | -200 |
Kristen Gillman | +225 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - V. Hovland / N. Dunlap | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Nick Dunlap | +185 |
Viktor Hovland | -170 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - Y. Noh / C. Ciganda | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Yealimi Noh | -105 |
Carlota Ciganda | +115 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - D. McCarthy / T. Hoge | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Denny McCarthy | +100 |
Tom Hoge | +110 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - N. Korda / A. Lee | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Nelly Korda | -145 |
Andrea Lee | +160 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - M.W. Lee / M. McNealy | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Maverick McNealy | +105 |
Min Woo Lee | +105 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - J. Thitikul / C. Boutier | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Jeeno Thitikul | -135 |
Celine Boutier | +150 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - A. Novak / R. MacIntyre | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Andrew Novak | +105 |
Robert MacIntyre | +105 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - J. Highsmith / C. Bezuidenhout | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Christiaan Bezuidenhout | +100 |
Joe Highsmith | +110 |
Tie | +750 |
Myrtle Beach Classic | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
Carson Young | +275 |
Mackenzie Hughes | +425 |
Harry Higgs | +600 |
Ryan Fox | +1200 |
Danny Walker | +1400 |
Victor Perez | +1400 |
Alex Smalley | +2500 |
Norman Xiong | +2500 |
Davis Shore | +2800 |
Ben Silverman | +4500 |
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Final Round 2-Balls - E. Van Rooyen / W. Zalatoris | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Will Zalatoris | -115 |
Erik Van Rooyen | +125 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - A. Rai / B. Griffin | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Aaron Rai | -110 |
Ben Griffin | +120 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - C. Davis / A. Scott | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Adam Scott | +100 |
Cam Davis | +110 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - B. Campbell / P. Rodgers | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Brian Campbell | +125 |
Patrick Rodgers | -115 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - T. Detry / R. Gerard | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Ryan Gerard | +100 |
Thomas Detry | +110 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - R. Hojgaard / A. Noren | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Alex Noren | +110 |
Rasmus Hojgaard | +100 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 3-Balls - J. Svensson / A. Svensson / M. Manassero | |
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Jesper Svensson | +150 |
Adam Svensson | +180 |
Matteo Manassero | +200 |
Final Round Match-Ups - G. Woodland / R. Hojgaard | |
Type: Final Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Rasmus Hojgaard | -125 |
Gary Woodland | +105 |
Final Round 2-Balls - G. Woodland / D. Thompson | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Davis Thompson | -125 |
Gary Woodland | +140 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round Match-Ups - D. Thompson / M. Fitzpatrick | |
Type: Final Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Davis Thompson | -120 |
Matt Fitzpatrick | +100 |
Final Round 3-Balls - S. Fisk / J. Bramlett / A. Rozner | |
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Antoine Rozner | +175 |
Joseph Bramlett | +175 |
Steven Fisk | +175 |
Final Round 3-Balls - T. Humphrey / M. McGreevy / H. Springer | |
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Max McGreevy | +130 |
Hayden Springer | +145 |
Theo Humphrey | +300 |
Final Round 2-Balls - J. Spieth / J.J. Spaun | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
J J Spaun | +130 |
Jordan Spieth | -120 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round Match-Ups - B. Hun An / J.J. Spaun | |
Type: Final Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Byeong Hun An | -110 |
J J Spaun | -110 |
Final Round Match-Ups - D. Berger / J. Spieth | |
Type: Final Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Jordan Spieth | -115 |
Daniel Berger | -105 |
Final Round 3-Balls - C. Hadley / B. Silverman / W. Chandler | |
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Ben Silverman | +130 |
Chesson Hadley | +200 |
Will Chandler | +210 |
Final Round 3-Balls - T. Kanaya / B. Haas / A. Albertson | |
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Takumi Kanaya | +100 |
Anders Albertson | +230 |
Bill Haas | +240 |
Final Round 2-Balls - B. Hun An / M. Fitzpatrick | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Byeong Hun An | +100 |
Matt Fitzpatrick | +110 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 3-Balls - F. Molinari / G. Duangmanee / L. List | |
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Luke List | +130 |
Francesco Molinari | +170 |
George Duangmanee | +250 |
Final Round 3-Balls - N. Xiong / D. Walker / A. Smalley | |
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Alex Smalley | +125 |
Danny Walker | +185 |
Norman Xiong | +230 |
Final Round 2-Balls - X. Schauffele / C. Morikawa | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Collin Morikawa | +100 |
Xander Schauffele | +110 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 3-Balls - V. Perez / R. Fox / D. Shore | |
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Victor Perez | +135 |
Ryan Fox | +145 |
Davis Shore | +280 |
Final Round 3-Balls - A. Putnam / A. Tosti / M. Feuerstein | |
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Alejandro Tosti | +120 |
Andrew Putnam | +140 |
Michael Feuerstein | +350 |
Final Round 2-Balls - S.W. Kim / D. Berger | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Daniel Berger | -115 |
Si Woo Kim | +125 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round Match-Ups - K. Bradley / S.W. Kim | |
Type: Final Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Keegan Bradley | -120 |
Si Woo Kim | +100 |
Final Round 3-Balls - C. Young / H. Higgs / M. Hughes | |
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Mackenzie Hughes | +110 |
Carson Young | +190 |
Harry Higgs | +260 |
Final Round 2-Balls - M. Homa / A. Bhatia | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Akshay Bhatia | -110 |
Max Homa | +120 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round Match-Ups - A. Bhatia / S. Stevens | |
Type: Final Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Akshay Bhatia | -110 |
Sam Stevens | -110 |
Final Round Match-Ups - M. Homa / R. Fowler | |
Type: Final Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Rickie Fowler | -115 |
Max Homa | -105 |
Final Round 2-Balls - S. Stevens / S. Jaeger | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Stephan Jaeger | +110 |
Sam Stevens | +100 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round Match-Ups - C. Conners / S. Jaeger | |
Type: Final Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Corey Conners | -140 |
Stephan Jaeger | +120 |
Final Round 2-Balls - K. Bradley / J.T. Poston | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
J.T. Poston | +120 |
Keegan Bradley | -110 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - C. Young / E. Cole | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Cameron Young | +110 |
Eric Cole | +100 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - P. Cantlay / C. Conners | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Corey Conners | +115 |
Patrick Cantlay | -105 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - H. English / R. Fowler | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Harris English | -105 |
Rickie Fowler | +115 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round Match-Ups - K. Mitchell / H. English | |
Type: Final Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Harris English | -110 |
Keith Mitchell | -110 |
Final Round 2-Balls - J. Bridgeman / T. Fleetwood | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Jacob Bridgeman | +145 |
Tommy Fleetwood | -130 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round Match-Ups - N. Taylor / J. Bridgeman | |
Type: Final Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Jacob Bridgeman | -110 |
Nick Taylor | -110 |
Final Round 2-Balls - T. Finau / R. McIIroy | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Rory McIlroy | -180 |
Tony Finau | +200 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round Match-Ups - S. Burns / T. Finau | |
Type: Final Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Sam Burns | -115 |
Tony Finau | -105 |
Final Round Match-Ups - J. Thomas / R. McIIroy | |
Type: Final Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Rory McIlroy | -135 |
Justin Thomas | +115 |
Final Round 2-Balls - S. Burns / S. Im | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Sam Burns | +110 |
Sungjae Im | +100 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round Match-Ups - S. Straka / S. Im | |
Type: Final Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Sepp Straka | -120 |
Sungjae Im | +100 |
Final Round 2-Balls - H. Matsuyama / N. Taylor | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Hideki Matsuyama | -135 |
Nick Taylor | +150 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round Match-Ups - H. Matsuyama / S. Lowry | |
Type: Final Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Hideki Matsuyama | -110 |
Shane Lowry | -110 |
Final Round 2-Balls - J. Thomas / K. Mitchell | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Justin Thomas | -150 |
Keith Mitchell | +165 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - S. Straka / S. Lowry | |
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN | |
Sepp Straka | +105 |
Shane Lowry | +105 |
Tie | +750 |
Major Specials 2025 | |
Type: To Win A Major 2025 - Status: OPEN | |
Scottie Scheffler | +160 |
Bryson DeChambeau | +350 |
Xander Schauffele | +350 |
Ludvig Aberg | +400 |
Collin Morikawa | +450 |
Jon Rahm | +450 |
Justin Thomas | +550 |
Brooks Koepka | +700 |
Viktor Hovland | +700 |
Hideki Matsuyama | +800 |
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PGA Championship 2025 | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
Rory McIlroy | +450 |
Scottie Scheffler | +450 |
Bryson DeChambeau | +1100 |
Ludvig Aberg | +1800 |
Justin Thomas | +2000 |
Xander Schauffele | +2000 |
Collin Morikawa | +2200 |
Jon Rahm | +2200 |
Joaquin Niemann | +3500 |
Brooks Koepka | +4000 |
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US Open 2025 | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
Rory McIlroy | +500 |
Scottie Scheffler | +500 |
Bryson DeChambeau | +1200 |
Xander Schauffele | +1200 |
Jon Rahm | +1400 |
Ludvig Aberg | +1400 |
Collin Morikawa | +1600 |
Brooks Koepka | +1800 |
Justin Thomas | +2000 |
Viktor Hovland | +2000 |
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The Open 2025 | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
Rory McIlroy | +500 |
Scottie Scheffler | +550 |
Xander Schauffele | +1100 |
Ludvig Aberg | +1400 |
Collin Morikawa | +1600 |
Jon Rahm | +1600 |
Bryson DeChambeau | +2000 |
Shane Lowry | +2500 |
Tommy Fleetwood | +2500 |
Tyrrell Hatton | +2500 |
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Ryder Cup 2025 | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
USA | -150 |
Europe | +140 |
Tie | +1200 |