Hosung Choi Looks Primed to Take PGA by Storm

Through two rounds at the World Golf Championships – HSBC Champions, Tony Finau sits at 11 under par and has opened up a three-stroke advantage over a trio of players. Here are the top 10 win probabilities heading into the weekend: The top 3 in terms of their share of win probability, Tony Finau, Justin Rose, and Tommy Fleetwood, are all among the top 6 players in this field according to our model (Rose at #2, Finau at #5, and Fleetwood at #6). There is a 72 percent chance that the winner will emerge from that trio of golfers. While Rose has been a top-10 player in the world for several years now, both Fleetwood and Finau have only recently risen to that level. In fact, they have followed similar trajectories: here are plots of their respective performances over the last few years (Fleetwood above, Finau below): Each bar in these graphs indicates the golfer’s average Strokes Gained at an event, and the black line is a 10-event moving average. Both Fleetwood and Finau were performing at a level similar to an average PGA TOUR professional (i.e. Strokes Gained of 0) near the end of the 2016 season. Recently they have both elevated their games to near the level of a top 5 player in the world (which can be thought of as a golfer who averages +2 Strokes Gained per round). Finau and Fleetwood have done everything but win over the past year on the PGA TOUR; a win at a World Golf Championships event this week would solidify their position among golf’s current elite. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cutâ€�, “Top 20â€�, “Top 5â€�, and “Winâ€� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the World Golf Championships – HSBC Champions, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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The PGA TOUR heads three hours south of Augusta for The RSM Classic, the second-to-last PGA TOUR event of the calendar year. Tyler Duncan, coming off his Masters debut, will defend his maiden TOUR title while past FedExCup champions Justin Rose, Brandt Snedeker and Henrik Stenson lead the way along with a collection of major champions and Sea Island residents all looking to lift the trophy come Sunday. FIELD NOTES: Plenty of Masters competitors will hit the road from Augusta to Sea Island for The RSM Classic including past Masters winners Danny Willett and Zach Johnson... Each of the past seven winners at Sea Island will look to rekindle some old magic this week including 2019 winner Duncan, who is hoping to become the first golfer to successfully defend his title at The RSM Classic... Davis Love III, the longtime host of the event, will not play in 2020 due to a lingering neck injury... Last year's runner-up (who lost to Duncan in a playoff) Webb Simpson is back to try to avenge 2019's loss... Stewart Cink, Hudson Swafford, Martin Laird, and Brian Gay are winners from the fall who are in the field... Other notable names teeing it up at Sea Island including Jason Day, Shane Lowry, Justin Rose and Tyrrell Hatton. FEDEXCUP: Winner receives 500 FedExCup points. COURSE: Sea Island Resort (Seaside), 7,005 yards, par 70; Sea Island Resort (Plantation), 7,060 yards, par 72. Yardage subject to change. Tom Fazio redid the Seaside Course in 1999, while tournament host Davis Love III and his brother Mark redesigned the Plantation Course for 2019. STORYLINES: Davis Thompson, the celebrated amateur, will play on the PGA TOUR for the third time this calendar year. He also played the Puerto Rico Open and the U.S. Open - where he led briefly during the first round. Thompson is the No. 1-ranked amateur in the world and will play for the second straight year in Sea Island... Per usual, there are plenty of Sea Island residents teeing it up at The RSM Classic, all of whom are trying to become the first local to actually win the tournament. Kevin Kisner won in 2015 but was living in Sea Island temporarily due to renovations on his home in South Carolina... Five of the 10 RSM Classic winners made the tournament their first PGA TOUR victory including Duncan in 2019. 72-HOLE RECORD: 260, Kevin Kisner (2015) 18-HOLE RECORD: 60, Tommy Gainey (4th round, 2012) LAST TIME: Tyler Duncan topped Webb Simpson in a playoff to win his first PGA TOUR title at The RSM Classic in 2019. Simpson was the highest-ranked golfer in the field and appeared to be the man to beat. But Duncan closed with a 25-foot birdie to force a playoff, which he won on the second extra hole. The pair made pars on the first playoff hole but Duncan nailed a 15-footer for birdie, and the win. Duncan had just re-earned his PGA TOUR card via the Korn Ferry Tour Finals, but his closing 65 was tied for the round of the day. Sebastian Munoz finished third, Brendon Todd finished fourth, and Henrik Norlander, Scottie Scheffler, and KH Lee rounded out the top five. HOW TO FOLLOW Television: Thursday-Sunday, 1 p.m.-4 p.m. ET (Golf Channel) PGA TOUR LIVE: Thursday-Friday, 9:15 a.m.-4 p.m. ET (Featured Groups) Radio: Thursday-Friday, 10 a.m.-4 p.m. Saturday-Sunday, 11 a.m.-4 p.m. (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com/liveaudio).

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