Horses for Courses: Waste Management Phoenix Open

It’s back to the desert this week for the 84th edition of the Waste Management Phoenix Open. On the line at The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale is a purse of $7.1 million with the winner pocketing $1.278 million and 500 FedExCup points. Need course info? Check Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings, The First Look and Course Preview. (add links to the above, please). The Landlord Phil Mickelson (3 wins, 11 top-10 finishes; 23 of 29 cuts made): It’s not a secret that Mickelson does most of his damage on the West Coast. It’s also not a secret that he loves this layout as he’s posted a round of 60 in each of his last two wins (2005, 2013). After just missing at the 60th Desert Classic (T2) I’m sure he’ll enjoy being the center of attention again this week. Recent Winners 2018 Gary Woodland (7 of 9; 2011 T5): The three winners since the Tom Weiskopf redesign before the 2015 edition all smash it tee-to-green. He led the field in par-breakers with 26 birdies and one eagle. Notable: Defeated Chez Reavie, who led the field in Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green, in a one-hole playoff. 2017 Hideki Matsuyama (Win 2016, T2 2015, and T4 2014): His dream of making it three straight died in 2018 as he WD with a wrist injury before the second round. He’s 61 under in 17 rounds in his career. Notable: Of those 17 rounds 15 are in the 60’s including 63, tying the “new” post-renovation course record. 2015 Brooks Koepka (first appearance): He kicked off the streak that has seen the last four winners all hit the top 10 in Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green and GIR. The formula isn’t a difficult one to uncover here. Notable: He’s the only winner after the redesign to post a round in the 70’s (71; Round 1). Key stat leaders Golfers inside the top 25-ish in each statistic on the 2017-18 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete this week. * – Finished inside the top 10 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open since 2010. Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green  3  Justin Thomas (T17 twice, MC twice) 12 *Ryan Moore (T6 2014; 4 2013) 13 Tony Finau (MC last three years) 14 Keegan Bradley (4 top-24 finishes; best T15) 15 *Byeong-Hun An (2017 54-hole leader) 16 *Hideki Matsuyama 18 *Gary Woodland 20 *Jon Rahm (5th as an amateur 2015) 21 *Rickie Fowler (T11 2018, T4 2017, P2 2016) 22 Kevin Streelman 24 Scott Piercy (3 top-10 paydays in 10 starts) 27 Zach Johnson (6 top-25 checks from 7 weekends, T10 2015) Greens in Regulation  2  Sam Ryder  3  Billy Horschel (Top 10 last week)  4  Kevin Streelman  5  C.T. Pan (T2, 2017)  6  *Kyle Stanley (WIN, 2012) 11 *Gary Woodland 12 Andrew Putnam 14 Jason Kokrak 18 Tony Finau 20 *Jon Rahm 22 Michael Thompson 24 *Scott Piercy 25 Tyler Duncan 27 Russell Knox 29 *Rickie Fowler Par Breakers  3  Justin Thomas  4  *Jon Rahm  6  *Phil Mickelson  9  Tony Finau 12 Keith Mitchell 16 *Hideki Matsuyama 18 *Rickie Fowler 19 Brandon Harkins 20 *Chesson Hadley (T5 2018) 21 Grayson Murray 23 *Ryan Palmer (T2 2015, 5 2013, T2 2006) 26 *Kevin Na (four top-five finishes; last was 2012) 27 Jason Kokrak 28 Billy Horschel 29 *Martin Laird (three top-10 finishes in the last four) 30 *Ollie Schniederjans (T3 2018, T24 2017) Levels of Confidence We’ve selected a few players below that should be fairly confident going into this week. Recycling Webb Simpson: Broke a streak of five straight T14 or better since 2011 with MC last year. … Matt Kuchar: 26 under the last two years for T5 and T9. … Martin Laird: Of his last eight trips four have cashed top-10 paydays. … Rickie Fowler: Led after 54-holes last year but 73 on Sunday dropped him to T11. He’s done everything but win this event. Desert Foxes Brandt Snedeker: Only one miss in 11 tries with four top-10’s. … Brendan Steele: Never missed in eight tries and the last six are T26 or better. …  Daniel Berger: Never missed in four tries and three are T11 or better. … J.B. Holmes: Won this event twice in three seasons (2006, 2008) and was T6 in 2016. … Long Shots Bubba Watson: This was a must-play event when he lived in Scottsdale but he’s still made 10 of 12 cuts. … J.J. Spaun: Posted T4 in 2017 with a 71 but WD last year. Hmmmmmm. … Ollie Schniederjans: His caddie didn’t miss too many here when he was on Zach Johnson’s bag. He’s 24 under in two trips. … Harris English: With three top-15 paychecks from six he’ll be another must-play in the dig-deep department again this week.    Odds and Ends Be patient. None of the last four winners have held the 54-hole lead. There’s plenty of NOISE and PRESSURE coming down the stretch where posting and getting out of the way is an advantage. Breath held: The last three editions have needed a playoff to separate first and second.

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