Horses for Courses: THE PLAYERS Championship

Justin Rose did just enough on Friday to stay ahead of the pack at the Masters.

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SOUTHPORT, England – Rory McIlroy, the reigning FedExCup champion, is not the favorite this week to win the Open Championship. The latest odds in the UK have him 20 to 1, well below a handful of notable names. “Good time to back me,â€� the confident McIlroy insisted Wednesday. Yet McIlroy, the 2014 Open winner at nearby Royal Liverpool, understands why he’s not a more popular pick. He’s battled rib injuries that sidelined him earlier this year, and also took time off to get married. He comes into this week having missed the cut in his last two starts, including the Irish Open two weeks ago hosted by his foundation. He’s not the only big name teeing off Thursday with questionable form. FedExCup points leader and world No. 1 Dustin Johnson also has missed the cut in his last two starts. Same for Jason Day. In fact, Day has missed three cuts in his last dozen starts in 2017; he had missed four in the previous four years combined. While other notables such as Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka and Jon Rahm – as well as last week’s John Deere Classic winner, Bryson DeChambeau — enter the Open having won in their last starts respectively, McIlroy, Johnson and Day come in on an opposite (and less encouraging) track. Missed cuts, no momentum, and questions – perhaps even concerns — about their chances. Day pulled no punches Wednesday about his season to date. “I’m disappointed in my game,â€� he said. Perhaps Royal Birkdale will prove to be a turning point for all three. Asked this week if there was any significance in entering the Open off a win while Day, Johnson and McIlroy enter off multiple missed cuts, Spieth replied: “Form is very important, but I think in a tournament like this, it’s a great way for players who are not necessarily in form to come in and steal a win. With these conditions, you just throw out the way you’ve been playing because the shots are so different than what we normally see. “Sure, form matters, especially around the greens, but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of those guys are in contention. It’s a good tournament to get back in shape.â€� McIlroy readily agrees. Despite his inconsistent results and reduced starts and limited practice, he doesn’t feel his form is that far off. He likes what he’s seen on the range, and he knows he’s the type of player who can flip the switch in a hurry. In 2012, he went through a five-start stretch in the middle of the season in which he missed four cuts, then finished T-60 at the Open. A month later, he won the PGA Championship, soon followed by two wins in the FedExCup Playoffs. “Obviously it’s been hard to get any sort of momentum with an injury and not being able to practice as much as you’d like,â€� McIlroy said. “But I’m in good spirits. I feel like it’s all coming together. I’m just waiting for that round or that moment or that week where it sort of clicks and I’ll be off and running. “I’ve have little periods like this before in my career, and I’ve been able to bounce back from them. I’d say I was in worse positions than this. … The pieces are all there. It’s just about trying to fit them together.â€� No one had better form two months ago than Johnson. He had won three consecutive starts going into the Masters, and was the favorite to win his second major. But he slipped on a staircase at his rental home in Augusta the day before the tournament, injured his back and was unable to play. When he returned in early May, Johnson seemed back in form, nabbing a tie for second at the Wells Fargo Championship. But after two more top-15 finishes – including a T12 at THE PLAYERS – Johnson missed consecutive cuts for the first time in four years. On the positive side, he and fiancée Paulina Gretzky welcomed their second child, a boy they named River. The family remained back in the U.S. this week, and Johnson said that mother and child are both healthy and doing fine. “Definitely the second one is easier than the first one,â€� Johnson said. “Not quite as nervous when you’re bringing them home from the hospital.â€� Johnson also isn’t nervous about his golf game. Putting was the main antagonist in his two missed cuts – he blamed himself for spending more practice time on his swing and less on his short game when he returned to action following his injury – but he has recently seen encouraging signs. “The putter feels good,â€� he said. “I’m starting to roll it a lot better, and got a lot of confidence in it. Everything is feeling pretty good right now.â€� Day, though, can’t say the same. He has just two top-10 finishes going back to last year’s FedExCup Playoffs. He cited burnout at the end of 2016, as well as a nagging back that knocked him out of the last two Playoffs events. Then there was the cancer concerns with his mother earlier this year, as well as trying to find the balance between his life as a dad – which he loves – while trying to maintain the desire he displayed in reaching world No. 1. “Everything seems like it’s kind of coming back into balance for me,â€� Day said. “And I’m able to focus on just really getting after it and working hard and trying to really pinpoint what has been going wrong in my game.â€� Which, according to Day, is pretty much everything. “If you take my years 2015 and 2016, I hit it long and straight, straightish. I hit my iron shots a lot closer and I holed everything on the greens,â€� he said. “And this year it’s not as long, it’s not as straight. My iron shots aren’t as close, and I’m not holing as many putts. So it’s a perfect formula for not having a good year.â€� As if those things weren’t enough, Day was delayed last week in getting to England and starting his preparations. He had hoped to fly out Saturday night and arrive on Sunday. But his connection out of JFK airport in New York was delayed, he said, due to President Trump, who was attending the U.S. Women’s Open at Trump National. So he readjusted his schedule, flew out Sunday night, arrived on Monday and didn’t get onto the course until Tuesday when he played 18 holes. It’s not the first time a sitting President has interfered with Day’s travel plans. “President Obama held me up one time flying out of Palm Springs,â€� Day said. “So I understand. It is what it is.â€� Any delays returning home next week shouldn’t be nearly as frustrating – especially if the Claret Jug is in the overhead compartment.

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Not only does THE PLAYERS feature the deepest field in the game but it lands in Segment 3 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO. With little if any concern about needing more than three starts on any golfer, there’s no reason not to select everyone you want. And because of the depth, go ahead and consider one or even two options driven by your heart. That seemingly careless approach is mitigated by the promise that straight chalk is likely going to yield disappointment on some level no matter the stakes. This is the rub of TPC Sawgrass. So, you might as well go halfway and take some of that pressure off. PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO My roster for the THE PLAYERS (in alphabetical order): Rickie Fowler Sergio Garcia Martin Kaymer Hideki Matsuyama Rory McIlroy Justin Thomas You’ll find my starters in Expert Picks. Others to consider for each category (in alphabetical order): Scoring: Jason Day; Jason Dufner; Adam Hadwin; Brian Harman; Dustin Johnson; Brooks Koepka; Justin Rose; Adam Scott; Jordan Spieth; Jimmy Walker Driving: Paul Casey; Graham DeLaet; Jason Dufner; Dustin Johnson; Zach Johnson; Francesco Molinari; Louis Oosthuizen; Jon Rahm; Adam Scott; Kyle Stanley Approach: Paul Casey; Jason Dufner; Dustin Johnson; Zach Johnson; Kevin Kisner; Kevin Na; Jon Rahm; Jordan Spieth; Kyle Stanley Short: Graham DeLaet; Jason Dufner; Adam Hadwin; Brian Harman; Dustin Johnson; Zach Johnson; Brooks Koepka; Marc Leishman; Graeme McDowell; Jon Rahm; Jordan Spieth Power Ranking Wild Card Branden Grace … Fourth appearance. Hasn’t missed a cut but hasn’t cracked a top 40. Like fellow South Africans Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel, gamers can usually turn to Grace in the deepest fields of the season not only for their consistency but also to spell notables who don’t present as appealing. Grace’s statistics won’t wow anyone, but that’s the same reason why too many won’t be on board. Find room in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO and DFS. Draws Brian Harman … If the 30-year-old wasn’t as seasoned, we might be concerned about a letdown after that statement victory at Eagle Point on Sunday. Instead, he’s poised to double down while he’s on fire. The Wells Fargo win was his fourth top-15 finish in his last five starts. Additional reason to retain elevated expectation is that he connected four red numbers en route to a T8 at TPC Sawgrass in 2015. Patrick Reed … Despite everything we know and love about him, this is an aggressive play. You’d be investing in an uptick in form that includes the outright lead after 54 holes at Eagle Point. He settled for a share of 12th place on a closing 75. He’s also fared reasonably well in his only cut made in three trips to TPC Sawgrass, that a T24 in 2015. But again, it’s all about the surge with the emotionally charged Texan. Louis Oosthuizen … Sat out the Wells Fargo Championship after committing. While that decision alone motivates gamers to get on board – because he simplified his focus over the current fortnight – the 34-year-old’s reputation as a tee-to-green monster supports the move. He’s 3-for-4 at TPC Sawgrass since 2013 and hasn’t missed a cut anywhere in 10 months. Jimmy Walker … It’s impossible to know if he’s competing freer of expectations than usual as he battles Lyme Disease, but whatever works. Top 20s in his last two starts, including a T13 at TPC San Antonio where he publicized his malady. No stranger to TPC Sawgrass and no stranger to whiffs of success, either. He’s 4-for-7 with a pair of top 15s. Charl Schwartzel … Sat out last year’s edition but shapes up as a better option this year, anyway. Rested since a quiet solo third at the Masters. Finished sixth in his title defense at Copperhead. No top 25s in six trips to TPC Sawgrass, but he’s missed only one cut. That reliability to complement is why we love him. Marc Leishman … With the wind expected to test the field and a 5-for-5 slate here since 2012 (with a T8 and another pair of top 25s), the Aussie is prime to contribute. Also a recent winner at Bay Hill and ranks 12th in adjusted scoring and 17th in bogey avoidance. Adam Hadwin … Another recent winner (Valspar) who’s a more balanced ball-striker than you might realize for a guy best known as a terrific putter. Sits 21st in strokes gained: approach-the-green and 28th in strokes gained: tee-to-green. The perfect complement in DFS where his price tag should be attractive. Making his third start at TPC Sawgrass. Zach Johnson … En route to a T18 at Eagle Point, he submitted a positive measurement in strokes gained: approach-the-green for the first time in seven starts with ShotLink in play. That turnaround comes as the perfect time, too, doesn’t it? Speaking of perfect, he’s been a constant on the weekend at TPC Sawgrass since 2009 five top 25s among eight cuts made. Ryan Palmer … Pretty simple here. He’s in a good place again and it shows. After a T11 at Harbour Town, he tossed up a T6 in San Antonio, and then placed fourth with Jordan Spieth in New Orleans. This is his 12th appearance at TPC Sawgrass where he’s logged a T5 in 2013 and a T23 in 2016. Patrick Cantlay … Like Jon Rahm (No. 15 in the Power Rankings), Cantlay is a first-timer at THE PLAYERS. And like Rahm, the American belongs on every short list as a sturdy, complementary piece in every format. There’s a certain temperament and intensity to him that blends so well with the same that’s required to tame TPC Sawgrass, well, as much as it can be. It transcends the stats and it deserves our confidence. Fades Phil Mickelson … You know his quip. He can’t believe that he’s actually won here. It’s been 10 years now, in fact. He strung together 11 consecutive cuts made, five on either side of that title, but has gone 0-for-4 since 2013. Quite simply, there are many weeks when we know that we can plug him in and there are times when we shouldn’t. This is one of the latter, if not the only site all season. Henrik Stenson … Because he’s Henrik Stenson, now is exactly when contrarians need to pounce. You’re buying low on an 0-for-4 slide and on a track where he’s a former champ (2009). And, of course, TPC Sawgrass yields as random a leaderboard as any all season. All that said, if you’re currently contending or sniffing the lead, stick with the commodities over whom you won’t lose sleep. Bubba Watson … Perhaps the T5 with J.B. Holmes at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans will spark something moving forward, but the lefty still needs to prove to us that he can put four rounds together in stroke-play competition on his own ball since changing it entering 2017. Not helping matters is that his record at TPC Sawgrass is uninspiring despite six cuts made in nine appearance. He’s yet to record a top 35. Jim Furyk … While he’s a local resident, he’s acknowledged that he doesn’t peg it at TPC Sawgrass as often as most think. His record suggests that it doesn’t matter what with four top 10s and another five top 25s among 17 cuts made in 21 appearances. That’s enough reason for course history buffs to take the plunge, but his recent form remains substandard. While it’s kind of like beating a dead horse in this space, it’s very possible that the distractions of the duties as Ryder Cup captain are taking a toll on his performance. Ryan Moore … Something will give and there are fair arguments to support and deny decisions to invest and abstain. It absolutely depends on your situation. His form upon arrival is strong enough to warrant the risk, but the absence of recent fortune at TPC Sawgrass is enough reason to move along. The recommended hedge, if you’re compelled, is to surround him with front-liners. Russell Knox … He’s 3-for-3 since debuting in 2014, has a pair of top 20s and has carded a 68 in every final round, but the Jacksonville University product has been in a funk for months. A T11 at Harbour Town is his only payday in a tournament with a cut in six starts. Returning to Competition Ernie Els … Withdrew during his second round of last week’s Wells Fargo Championship with a back injury. It extended his current drought to 2-for-13 worldwide. Last top 40 at THE PLAYERS occurred in 2008. Alex Cejka … Walked off Eagle Point with a sore back during his second round last week. It’s an injury with which we’re all too familiar with him. Now, that doesn’t mean that we should immediately jump off, either. He’s proven to bounce back quickly. What’s more, his record at TPC Sawgrass suggests that he’s worth the plunge regardless of concern. The 46-year-old has three top-15 finishes tucked inside his 6-for-8 slate. That includes a T9 last year. Notable WDs Brandt Snedeker … Resting a sore wrist. Doesn’t want to risk further damage with the U.S. Open a month away. Thomas Pieters … A surprising DNP, but we’ll get our fill in the last three majors. He just might look good in all, too. Charles Howell III … Gamers won’t miss him. He’s just 6-for-15 with one top 50 at THE PLAYERS. John Senden … He stepped away to be with his family when it was discovered that his son has a brain tumor. Jon Curran … He’s been nursing a sore rib. Hasn’t played since missing the cut at The Honda Classic in late February. Colt Knost … Had surgery on his wrist a couple of months ago. Plans to return at the beginning of the 2017-18 equipped with a Major Medical Extension. Tiger Woods … Out indefinitely again after a fourth back surgery. Power Rankings Recap – Wells Fargo Championship Power Ranking Golfer Result 1 Dustin Johnson T2 2 Jon Rahm 4th 3 Kevin Kisner MC 4 Webb Simpson MC 5 Paul Casey T12 6 Adam Scott T36 7 Bill Haas MC 8 Francesco Molinari T24 9 Phil Mickelson T18 10 Louis Oosthuizen WD 11 William McGirt MC 12 Bud Cauley WD 13 Hudson Swafford T49 14 Wesley Bryan MC 15 Brian Harman Win Sleepers Recap – Wells Fargo Championship Golfers Result Martin Laird T42 Shane Lowry T24 Sebastian Muñoz MC Robby Shelton T52 Nick Watney T59 Birthdays among active golfers on the PGA TOUR May 9 … none May 10 … Parker McLachlin (38) May 11 … Briny Baird (45) May 12 … Jim Furyk (47); Mike Weir (47) May 13 … none May 14 … none May 15 … none

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