Horses for Courses: Safeway Open

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The Wyndham Championship presents many promises, not the least of which is the final opportunity to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs. However, the pressure to perform at the buzzer isn’t a common intangible, so plan on pivoting to the chalk sooner than later if your opening reaches scuffle. For guys guaranteed to advance into the Playoffs, the Wyndham is a chance to stay or get warm. The through line of Sedgefield Country Club is that it’s one of the fairest and most consistent stages of the season. That means it’s predictable for returning participants. They consist of your sample size to target after the cut. Shootouts tend to favor the random, but if you’ve sized up a non-winner to take the title, consider that J.T. Poston in 2019 is the only breakthrough champion of the last five editions. You might remember that he played the tournament in bogey-free, 22-under and still won by only one over all-time tournament earnings leader Webb Simpson, who had six bogeys. Register for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live here and monitor Rob’s and Glass’ progress as Influencers. For a broader explanation of the format and FAQs, click here. TOURNAMENT TO WIN Rob … Kevin Streelman (+6000) I’m a little bummed and surprised that he’s not longer, but maybe I’m late to the board. That said, it’s a respectful kickback with which to open. En route to a T7 here last year, he co-led the field in greens hit. It’s a skill that has regressed on the whole this season, but he’s been lighting up leaderboards all summer. Fourteen of his last 15 scores were red, including all four that yielded the runner-up performance at the Barbasol Championship. Glass … Will Zalatoris (+1700) I know, I know, change your pick as the tournament develops… I’m breaking the tradition and going with the Wake Forest alum who is looking to take the torch from “The Mayor” at Sedgefield, Webb Simpson. I’m going to take my chances with one of the best iron players on TOUR and navigate backwards from here. TOP 10 Glass … Keith Mitchell (+500) I’m putting on my sunscreen this week as I couldn’t catch the window last week. He enjoys gaining plenty of strokes off the tee and makes birdies for fun. That’s a proper combination this week. While others down the board could squeeze him out, I’ll ride a guy who loves making birdies and working the golf ball. Rob … Rory Sabbatini (+1200) Because I was in position to strike entering the final round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic – I was 18th through three rounds – I stayed up until this window opened at 1:22 a.m. PT on Sunday … and then failed to connect for the coins. So it goes. I really do try not to be in position to rely on a bet that unlocks with irregularity, but sometimes that’s just how the ball bounces. Unlike Glass, who lives three hours ahead on the clock, I can afford to swing the fence in the first at-bat. Basically, it’s a flier for a guy who has a propensity to go low in R1 and my confidence to keep pace. Sabbatini’s reputation for firepower is lost on newer bettors, but the 46-year-old still has the same confident swagger that paid dividends in his prime. He hasn’t had a top 10 (or a top 20) since the Shriners (T3) 10 months ago, but he’s tied for 23rd (with Will Zalatoris and Seamus Power) on the PGA TOUR in scoring average before the cut (69.67). He’s also 5-for-7 at Sedgefield with four top 10s (T10, 2021) and scoring averages of 66.57 and 68.43 in R1 and R2, respectively. TOP 20 Rob … Mark Hubbard (+300) Here is where I don’t want to mess around. It can be easy to fall into the trap of experiencing success with landing a bet at the right time, but on top of that addictive tendency of gambling in the classic sense, we don’t control when the opportunities are made available here, if they are at all. Shadowed by his silly reaction to his ace in Motown last week was that he intimated that taking a well-earned week off may have cost him form. He ended up missing the cut on the number after opening with 4-under 68. So, I’m relying on him solving the issue to return to the top-20 machine that he’s been on two tours since February. He also finished T15 here just two years ago. Glass … Vince Whaley (+700) Rolls in on four straight paydays, including a top five at Barbasol, so form is not the question. When he finds GIR, he’s a solid chance of converting a birdie, and that’s top of mind this week. Safely in at No. 93 on the Eligibility Points List, he’s free to try and drive up the board as the weekend extends. ROUND 1 LEADER Rob … Mark Hubbard (+6600) Sedgefield Country Club is a stock par 70, so both nines are par 35s with two par 3s and one par 5. What’s not even is the balance of expected scoring. The front side plays about a stroke easier. It’s as constant a course statistic as you’ll find anywhere. So, I’m keeping it simple. I started with the earliest tee times on No. 1. I scrolled until I found the first guy who deserved the faith. Lo and behold, it’s Hubbard again. He was my R1 leader in Detroit, and he delivered an ace, but the 68 was four swings too many to pay off the bet. As usual with tournaments in the Eastern Time Zone, he’ll likely have completed his round by the time I’m awake, so the plan is that I won’t have to scroll at all to find him again when I launch the leaderboard. Glass … Harold Varner III (+5000) Simple. He’s cashed in his last five visits. His WORST opening round is 67 while headlining with 62 in 2020 and 63 in 2017. The East Carolina Pirate loves the feel of a home game and usually gets off to a great start. Yeah, I’m not bothered by the 12:27 p.m. tee time, either. He’s that comfortable here. NOTE: While Glass and Rob typically stick with their selections as detailed in Pick ‘Em Preview, they are allowed the right to make changes at any time.

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When my man (and colleague), Mike Glasscott, writes The Confidence Factor in advance of tournaments and the daily Emergency 9 during competition, succumbs to the temptation to preemptively surrender, I don’t know where else to turn for a warm embrace. Glass launched the erstwhile #TTA (for “The Thursday Army”) on Twitter years ago. It’s a tag for all of gamers who lament about an early double bogey or birdie-free opening round in a competitive format in which there is a multitude of opportunities to reverse course and contribute to our cause. With the world connected electronically as it is, why remain patient in sharing dissatisfaction? Like so many others, Glass circled Dustin Johnson as his One & Done for the Genesis Open. After opening the tournament with a 3-over 74 and sitting birdie-free 1-over through eight holes of the second round, DJ seemed to be on a sauntering beeline to slam his trunk. So, at 9:42 a.m. PT on Friday, Glass tweeted, “First, [Hideki] Matsuyama at WMPO. Now, DJ at Genesis. Fantasy golf, bloody [expletive].” Lo and behold, Johnson came home in bogey-free 3-under to survive the cut by two strokes. A bogey-free 64 on Saturday thrust the defending champion to within striking distance of 54-hole leader Bubba Watson. Alas, DJ squandered the four-shot deficit, closed with 73 and landed in a four-way share of 16th place, eight swings adrift of Watson’s championship pace. The last golfer to prevail after opening any tournament with as high as a 74 was Justin Rose at the 2014 Quicken Loans National contested at Congressional, which is a par 71 like Riviera. The last 75 by a champion was carded by Mark Calcavecchia on par-71 Copperhead at the 2007 Valspar Championship. Since 1970, there have been five winners who opened with 76. So, hang in there, Glass, er, gamers, especially when Johnson is in control. If your pick for The Honda Classic signs for an over-par score after his first loop of PGA National’s Champion Course, you’ll have reason to whine. The average score in the opening round among the 11 winners on the par 70 is 67.64. The last six champs averaged 66.67 in laying the foundation. Defending champion Rickie Fowler carded a pair of 66s before opening a four-stroke cushion with a third-round 65. If you’re not angling at him in a major this season (as I am), you think no further while plugging him in. Of the eight golfers among the 29 featured in Future Possibilities below for whom Honda is bolded, Graeme McDowell is the only other with a “1” beside this stop. Given where G-Mac is on his career arc, he presents better as the tail of the tandem in two-man games. Of the foursome with a “2” beside their names, only Sergio Garcia serves as a smart option right now, but he’s always the go-to at THE PLAYERS or The Open Championship because he’s the most reliable at both tournaments devoid of constants. Save Luke Donald for the RBC Heritage, Billy Horschel for the FedEx St. Jude Classic and Adam Scott until he regains form. Rory McIlroy is tempting every time he laces up the spikes, but the Honda doesn’t even appear on his relative long short list. Same goes for Justin Thomas and Jason Dufner. Abstain. Tyrrell Hatton is a timely option and he’d be my choice if Gary Woodland wasn’t available. The Englishman serves as a bridge in a field full of them. Fellow international PGA TOUR members Alex Noren, Tommy Fleetwood and Rafa Cabrera Bello line up similarly. If you’re in a two-man format and McDowell isn’t your pint of Guinness, consider Patton Kizzire, Russell Knox or Dylan Frittelli. Now all you need to do is hold your breath for a red number on Thursday. FUTURE POSSIBILITIES NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2017-18. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple sites are listed (e.g. 1 for strongest, 2 for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change all season no matter how many tournament remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment. Daniel Berger … Houston (3); St. Jude (1; two-time defending); Travelers (2) Keegan Bradley … Houston (3); Memorial (5); WGC-Bridgestone (2) Luke Donald … Honda (2); Valspar (3); Heritage (1) Jason Dufner … Valspar (1); DEAN & DELUCA (2); Memorial (3; defending); U.S. Open (4); Wyndham (6); TOUR Championship (7) Rickie Fowler … Honda (1; defending); Houston (4); Masters (8); Wells Fargo (7); PLAYERS (9); WGC-Bridgestone (3); THE NORTHERN TRUST (10); Dell Technologies (6) Jim Furyk … Valspar (5); Heritage (1); Memorial (7); U.S. Open (8); Canadian (3); WGC-Bridgestone (2); THE NORTHERN TRUST (9); TOUR Championship (4) Sergio Garcia … Honda (2); Masters (3; defending); PLAYERS (5); Open Championship (1); TOUR Championship (4) Brian Harman … Arnold Palmer (5); DEAN & DELUCA (4); John Deere (3) Russell Henley … Houston (1; defending); Greenbrier (3) J.B. Holmes … Houston (2); Wells Fargo (7); Greenbrier (5) Billy Horschel … Honda (2); Arnold Palmer (5); Valero (3); St. Jude (1); TOUR Championship (4) Charles Howell III … Valspar (4); Houston (7) Chris Kirk … Valero (4); PLAYERS (3); DEAN & DELUCA (2) Kevin Kisner … Heritage (4); DEAN & DELUCA (1; defending); Memorial (5); Wyndham (6) Russell Knox … Honda (6); Heritage (2); PLAYERS (8); Dell Technologies (7) Jamie Lovemark … Arnold Palmer (3) Graeme McDowell … Honda (1); Heritage (4); WGC-Bridgestone (3) William McGirt … Heritage (1); Memorial (4) Rory McIlroy … Arnold Palmer (10); WGC-Match Play (11); Masters (2); Wells Fargo (1); PLAYERS (8); Memorial (9); Open Championship (4); WGC-Bridgestone (7); Dell Technologies (5); TOUR Championship (3) Ryan Moore … Valspar (5); Masters (8); Travelers (2); John Deere (3); TOUR Championship (6) Ryan Palmer … Valero (1); DEAN & DELUCA (2); St. Jude (6) Scott Piercy … Houston (5); John Deere (6) Patrick Reed … Valspar (6); Travelers (5); PGA Championship (8); Wyndham (7); THE NORTHERN TRUST (9); Dell Technologies (2) Adam Scott … Honda (2); Arnold Palmer (11); Masters (4); PLAYERS (5); U.S. Open (10); Open Championship (8); WGC-Bridgestone (3); Dell Technologies (9); TOUR Championship (6) Webb Simpson … Wells Fargo (7); DEAN & DELUCA (4); Travelers (8); Greenbrier (5); Wyndham (1) Brandt Snedeker … WGC-Mexico (13); Arnold Palmer (12); Masters (7); Heritage (10); DEAN & DELUCA (11); U.S. Open (5); Travelers (6); Canadian (3); Wyndham (4) Justin Thomas … WGC-Mexico (7); Valspar (8); Wells Fargo (9); Dell Technologies (6; defending); TOUR Championship (3) Jimmy Walker … Valero (6); Greenbrier (8); Dell Technologies (7) Gary Woodland … Honda (6); Wells Fargo (5); Barracuda (1); Dell Technologies (3)

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