The course is gorgeous. The players are happy. The leaderboard is intriguing. It should be a great weekend, as long as the USGA keeps its hands off Pebble Beach.
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The biggest Round 2 showdown in our Mythical World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play tournament? Gotta be world No. 1 Rory McIlroy vs. defending champ Kevin Kisner, who’s been near-unbeatable in the last two years at Austin Country Club. There are plenty of other intriguing matchups on this day, including a couple of top-5 seeds suffering upsets. To review, our Mythical event is the just-for-fun exercise we’re conducting this week in lieu of the real tournament, which was among the events canceled by the PGA TOUR in response to the coronavirus pandemic. The TOUR conducted a draw to produce a bracket, and now our 10 experts are voting for the winner of each match. We released the Round 1 results on Wednesday (click here) and now the results of the 32 matches that would’ve been played in Thursday’s Round 2. The 16 Group Stage winners will be determined on Friday, then we’ll vote for single-elimination matches this weekend to crown the Mythical champion on Sunday. The voting rules are simple: Each expert was asked to pick a match winner, and the golfer with the majority of votes is the match winner. In the case of an equal split of votes, the match is considered tied. Our 10 expert voters include: GolfBet’s Jason Sobel from The Action Network; GolfTV’s Jamie Kennedy; Tom Alter and Jim McCabe from PGA TOUR Communications; Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton; PGATOUR.COM writers Ben Everill, Sean Martin, Mike McAllister and Cameron Morfit; and a combined vote from the TOUR’s ShotLink team. Here are the experts’ picks for Round 2 (each player’s seed is in parentheses). GROUP 1 Rory McIlroy (1) vs. Kevin Kisner (36): 8 votes for McIlroy, 2 votes for Kisner. McILROY wins. Why we picked McIlroy: “McIlroy ranks second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Kisner has gone from 39th in 2017 to 129th this season in this category.â€� – ShotLink team Gary Woodland (18) vs. Sung Kang (52): 7 votes for Woodland, 3 votes for Kang. WOODLAND wins. Why I picked Woodland: “Woodland made it to the finals in this event, losing to Rory McIlroy at TPC Harding Park in 2015, and simply has too much firepower for Kang.â€� – Cameron Morfit Group standings: McIlroy 2-0, Kisner 1-1, Woodland 1-1, Kang 0-2 GROUP 2 Jon Rahm (2) vs. Chez Reavie (37): 10 votes for Rahm, 0 votes for Reavie. RAHM wins. Why I picked Rahm: “At Whisper Rock, maybe I’d go with Chez, but Austin CC fits Rahm nicely.â€� – Jim McCabe Bernd Wiesberger (26) vs. Tom Lewis (59): 7 votes for Wiesberger, 3 votes for Lewis. WIESBERGER wins. Why I picked Wiesberger: “Since coming back from injury, Wiesberger has been on a tear. His all-round game is elite and while Lewis is extremely streaky, he won’t hang this time.â€� – Jamie Kennedy Group standings: Rahm 2-0, Wiesberger 2-0, Reavie 0-2, Lewis 0-2 GROUP 3 Brooks Koepka (3) vs. Collin Morikawa (44): 7 votes for Morikawa, 3 votes for Koepka. MORIKAWA wins. Why I picked Morikawa: “Koepka’s fought injury and rust and hasn’t been able to find his footing this season. Meanwhile, Morikawa is the TOUR’s Steady Eddie.â€� – Sean Martin Abraham Ancer (29) vs. Shaun Norris (60): 10 votes for Ancer, 0 votes for Norris. ANCER wins. Why I picked Ancer: “Stirring victory sets up pivotal match in Round 3 with Brooks Koepka.â€�- Jim McCabe Group standings: Morikawa 2-0, Koepka 1-1, Ancer 1-1, Norris 0-2 GROUP 4 Justin Thomas (4) vs. Erik van Rooyen (42): 8 votes for Thomas, 2 votes for van Rooyen. THOMAS wins. Why I picked Thomas: “Van Rooyen can shred on guitar, but Thomas is the chalk pick here.â€� – Sean Martin Paul Casey (24) vs. Viktor Hovland (57): 6 votes for Hovland, 4 votes for Casey. HOVLAND wins. Why I picked Hovland: “You know I mean business when I expect a first-timer — who just happens to flash the newest, best smile in the game — to take down my man crush.â€� – Rob Bolton Group standings: Thomas 2-0, Casey 1-1, Hovland 1-1, van Rooyen 0-2 GROUP 5 Dustin Johnson (5) vs. Cameron Smith (35): 6 votes for Smith, 4 votes for Johnson. SMITH wins. Why I picked Smith: “Smith has always been a match play stud waiting to burst forth. Coming from 3 down to beat Thomas in the Presidents Cup Singles shows his competitive fire in this format.â€� – Ben Everill Hideki Matsuyama (22) vs. Keegan Bradley (62): 10 votes for Matsuyama, 0 votes for Bradley. MATSUYAMA wins. Why I picked Matsuyama: “If there’s a bugaboo in Matsuyama’s game, it’s that he isn’t a terrific putter, but in match play, his tremendous ball-striking can overcome a lack of red numbers, which was the case in this one.â€� – Jason Sobel Group standings: Matsuyama 2-0, Johnson 1-1, Smith 1-1, Bradley 0-2 GROUP 6 Adam Scott (6) vs. Shugo Imahira (41): 10 votes for Scott, 0 votes for Imahira. SCOTT wins. Why I picked Scott: “Scott’s match play record is one that has irked him over the years, but he’s riding high confidence after his win at The Genesis Invitational earlier this season.â€� – Ben Everill Lee Westwood (31) vs. Jordan Spieth (56): 6 votes for Westwood, 4 votes for Spieth. WESTWOOD wins. Why I picked Westwood: “Westwood has been playing with nothing to lose recently, just enjoying the back-nine of his career and competing with a smile on his face. It’s amazing how much that can free up a guy, as he was still smiling when this one was over.â€� – Jason Sobel Group standings: Scott 2-0, Westwood 2-0, Imahira 0-2, Spieth 0-2 GROUP 7 Patrick Reed (7) vs. Rafa Cabrera Bello (46): 6 votes for Reed, 4 votes for Cabrera Bello. REED wins. Why I picked Reed: “Despite how it looks at first glance, this is a virtual coin flip, but Reed’s consistently strong form since relying on feel mid-2019 just might propel him to victory in his home state.â€� – Rob Bolton Matthew Fitzpatrick (25) vs. Andrew Putnam (63): 9 votes for Fitzpatrick, 1 vote for Putnam. FITZPATRICK wins. Why I picked Fitzpatrick: “Fitzpatrick’s in fine form, with six top-10s in his last 11 worldwide starts. Meanwhile, Putnam’s missed the cut in his last three PGA TOUR starts.â€� – Mike McAllister Group standings: Reed 2-0, Cabrera Bello 1-1, Fitzpatrick 1-1, Putnam 0-2 GROUP 8 Patrick Cantlay (8) vs. Sergio Garcia (38): 9 votes for Cantlay, 1 vote for Garcia. CANTLAY wins. Why I picked Cantlay: “Cantlay is 29th in the FedExCup (seventh in the world) and does everything well, while Garcia is 179th in the FedExCup, recently turned 40, and has been quiet since winning the 2017 Masters.â€� – Cameron Morfit Tyrrell Hatton (21) vs. Adam Hadwin (55): 5 votes for Hatton, 5 votes for Hadwin. TIED. Why I picked Hadwin: “Still dealing with the API hangover — a figurative one (we think) — Hatton struggled with the ever-steady Hadwin, who simply didn’t have any unforced errors in this match.â€� – Jason Sobel Group standings: Cantlay 2-0, Hatton 1-0-1, Hadwin 0-1-1, Garcia 0-2 GROUP 9 Webb Simpson (9) vs. Scottie Scheffler (45): 7 votes for Simpson, 3 votes for Scheffler. SIMPSON wins. Why I picked Simpson: “Webb Simpson is on a roll. Hitting fairways and making putts always works in match play.â€� – Tom Alter Rickie Fowler (27) vs. Lucas Herbert (64): 7 votes for Fowler, 3 votes for Herbert. FOWLER wins. Why I picked Fowler: “After dismal start to his season, this is a massive week for him.â€� – Jim McCabe Group standings: Simpson 2-0, Scheffler 1-1, Fowler 1-1, Herbert 0-2 GROUP 10 Tommy Fleetwood (10) vs. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (47): 7 votes for Fleetwood, 3 votes for Bezuidenhout. FLEETWOOD wins. Why I picked Fleetwood: “There was some thought that Bezuidenhout could be this year’s Bjerregaard — an impossible-to-spell non-PGA TOUR member who makes his mark in match play. Perhaps he still will, but Fleetwood’s talent was too much to overcome here.â€� – Jason Sobel Francesco Molinari (28) vs. Byeong Hun An (50): 8 votes for An, 2 votes for Molinari. AN wins. Why I picked An: “Sadly, Francesco has been a shell of his best lately and still has some injury concerns while An has the Presidents Cup experience to draw from.â€� – Ben Everill Group standings: Fleetwood 2-0, Bezuidenhout 1-1, An 1-1, Molinari 0-2 GROUP 11 Tiger Woods (11) vs. Victor Perez (40): 8 votes for Woods, 2 votes for Perez. WOODS wins. Why we picked Woods: “Tiger’s one of the best iron players ever, not to mention his 18 WGC wins, including three times in this event. Oh, and did we mention he’s been PGA TOUR Player of the Year 11 times, most of any player?â€� – ShotLink team Kevin Na (30) vs. Phil Mickelson (61): 10 votes for Na, 0 votes for Mickelson. NA wins. Why I picked Na: “Na makes tons of putts. That’s tough to beat.â€� – Tom Alter Group standings: Woods 2-0, Na 2-0, Perez 0-2, Mickelson 0-2 GROUP 12 Xander Schauffele (12) vs. Danny Willett (33): 8 votes for Schauffele, 2 votes for Willett. SCHAUFFELE wins. Why I picked Schauffele: “Danny Willett’s comeback story has been nice to see, but Schauffele is the clear favorite here.â€� – Sean Martin Shane Lowry (20) vs. Jason Day (51): 6 votes for Day, 4 votes for Lowry. DAY wins. Why I picked Day: “A two-time winner in this unique format, Jason Day is too much for almost anybody in match play.â€� – Tom Alter Group standings: Schauffele 2-0, Lowry 1-1, Day 1-1, Willett 0-2 GROUP 13 Bryson DeChambeau (13) vs. Jazz Janewattananond (39): 9 votes for DeChambeau, 1 vote for Janewattananond. DeCHAMBEAU wins. Why I picked DeChambeau: “Just gotta love Bryson’s form right now (and I’m not just talking about the added muscle to his frame),â€� – Mike McAllister. Henrik Stenson (32) vs Ian Poulter (58): 6 votes for Poulter, 4 votes for Stenson. POULTER wins. Why I picked Poulter: “Putting prevails here. Stenson has potential to dominate tee-to-green but Poulter’s edge comes on the greens and this gives him the edge in this match-up.â€� – Jamie Kennedy Group standings: DeChambeau 2-0, Stenson 1-1, Poulter 1-1, Janewattananond 0-2 GROUP 14 Justin Rose (14) vs. Matt Wallace (43): 5 votes for Rose, 5 votes for Wallace. TIED. Why I picked Rose: “Two English players, two players battling their game somewhat early in 2020. Ask me in a couple of years and I’ll take Wallace but for now, Rose wins this.â€� – Jamie Kennedy Sungjae Im (23) vs. Bubba Watson (53): 8 votes for Im, 2 votes for Watson. IM wins. Why I picked Im: “Bubba’s a wild card – he could get on a roll and run to the title, as he did in 2018. But I like Im’s steadiness.â€� – Mike McAllister Group standings: Im 2-0, Watson 1-1, Rose 0-1-1, Wallace 0-1-1 GROUP 15 Marc Leishman (15) vs. Billy Horschel (34): 8 votes for Leishman, 2 votes for Horschel. LEISHMAN wins. Why we picked Leishman: “Currently seventh in the FEC standings and three consecutive trips to East Lake, not to mention on pace for his best season on TOUR.â€� – ShotLink team Matt Kuchar (17) vs. Graeme McDowell (49): 6 votes for Kuchar, 4 votes for McDowell. KUCHAR wins. Why I picked Kuchar: “GMac can be a tough out in match play, but Kuchar has too much good mojo in this event – he won it all in 2013 and was runner-up to Kevin Kisner last year.â€� – Cameron Morfit Group standings: Leishman 2-0, Kuchar 2-0, Horschel 0-2, McDowell 0-2 GROUP 16 Tony Finau (16) vs. Brandt Snedeker (48): 5 votes for Finau, 5 votes for Snedeker. TIED Why I picked Snedeker: “After seeing Finau’s dance vid with his wife, I’d like to use a Mulligan.â€� – Rob Bolton Louis Oosthuizen (19) vs. Brendon Todd (54): 8 votes for Oosthuizen 2 votes for Todd. OOSTHUIZEN wins. Why I picked Oosthuizen: “Todd may have been the man last fall, but Louis has match play acumen that cannot be denied.â€� – Ben Everill Group standings: Finau 1-0-1, Oosthuizen 1-0-1, Snedeker 0-0-2, Todd 0-2
The final hour changed the dynamics of the Valspar Championship, just not the lead. On a Saturday at Innisbrook that began with all 70 players who made the cut still very much in the mix, Casey surged to a three-shot lead until a bogey on the 18th hole for a 3-under 68 that left him one shot ahead of Dustin Johnson. At stake for Casey is a chance to become the first back-to-back winner of the Valspar Championship since this PGA Tour event began in 2000.
The PGA TOUR stays in the Sunshine State as it heads across I-4 west-to-east from Tampa to Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge. For the second week in a row, gamers will be faced with how to use Tiger Woods but after his near-miss performance last week, I’m pretty sure I can nail the angle this week. There is plenty of star power in this invitational field of 120 but the eight-time champion on the road to redemption is clearly the headliner. The former Orlando resident will have the confluence of current form and course form smashing into each other as he arrives at the club that Arnold Palmer built, grew and made famous. The King will be here in spirit but it’s a shame he couldn’t see the return. The 40th edition at Bay Hill will play to a Par-72 and will stretch to 7,419 yards. The course underwent some fine tuning after the 2014 edition which saw tree limbs and trees reduced, expanding fairways and improving sightlines. All 84 bunkers also received brand-new G-Angle sand. After the 2015 event the fairways and greens were regrassed. Similarly to Innisbrook, Bay Hill installed TifEagle Bermuda greens and Celebration Bermuda fairways to improve playability tee-to-green. Similarly to Innisbrook, none of the contours on the greens were affected. Unlike Innisbrook, new hole locations were NOT added so maps of the greens are still valid and so are the reps from playing them. These greens have had three summers to properly grow in and should be ready to roll, quite literally. Along with the 500 FedExCup points for the fourth year in a row the winner will earn a THREE-year exemption on TOUR. Adam Scott was the last to set the course record with a 62 in 2014, while Matt Every owns the post-2009 refurbishment record of 269 (-19) in 2015. Tales of the Tape (Winners) After being torched in 2015 and 2016, Mother Nature decided a bit of breeze would be in store in 2017. One of the best wind players on TOUR took full advantage of the conditions as Australian Marc Leishman came from three shots off the 54-hole lead of Kevin Kisner and Charley Hoffman to pick up the check. His final round 69 saw him post 11-under-par 277 and was one of only 10 rounds in the 60’s on Sunday. It was a difficult week all around as dry, wind-swept Bay Hill fought back with chilly temperatures in the two rounds before the cut, which ended up at three-over-par, and warm and windy conditions after. There were only nine bogey-free rounds on the week and only 34 players finished in the red. The low round of the week, 65, belonged to Rickie Fowler and Rory McIlroy in the early wave on Saturday. Leishman became just the sixth international winner in 39 events. The 2016 edition introduced TifEagle greens and Celebration fairways and gnarly rough but Jason Day wasn’t bothered. The Australian stud went wire-to-wire and posted 17-under 271 to hold off Kevin Chappell by a shot. Rain softened the less-than-year old greens and the course played over a half-shot below par for the week. The top 11 players were double-digits-under-par while the top 16 finishers accounted for exactly six rounds of par or worse for the week. Chappell was the only player in the field to post all four rounds in the 60’s. McIlroy couldn’t improve on his T11 debut from ’15 as he squared FOUR doubles but he fired 65 on Sunday to claim T27. Derek Fathauer didn’t mind the new greens as he needed only 98 putts for the week to claim T12. After posting 13-under in 2014 he stormed home from three shots behind post 19-under 269 to pass 54-hole leader Henrik Stenson. A tough winter saw the greens in rough shape and the full complement of pin placements couldn’t be used. Every took advantage of the conditions on the greens and the absence of wind to post all four rounds in the 60’s. His total was the lowest this century, matching Woods from 2003, and his 25 birdies were the most in the last five events easily. The greens and fairways were replaced two months later. I’ve posted both winning years to analyze, enjoy. NOTE: Golfers inside the top 25 in each statistic on the 2016-17 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete in the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. * – Finished inside the top 10 at Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard since 2013. Par-5 Scoring Rank Golfer 1 *Hideki Matsuyama 2 Luke List 4 *Rory McIlroy 7 Brandon Hagy 11 *Rickie Fowler 12 *Charley Hoffman 12 *Justin Rose 12 Charl Schwartzel 12 Kevin Tway 18 *Jason Day 18 *Marc Leishman 18 Pat Perez 18 Kyle Stanley 24 *Jamie Lovemark Strokes-gained: Putting Rank Golfer 2 *Rickie Fowler 3 Luke Donald 4 *Graeme McDowell 5 Brian Harman 7 Patrick Reed 8 Mackenzie Hughes 10 Shane Lowry 15 Cody Gribble 16 Brian Gay 19 David Lingmerth 20 *Kevin Kisner 21 Whee Kim 22 *Louis Oosthuizen 24 Camilo Villegas Bogey Avoidance Rank Golfer 7 Ian Poulter 9 Charles Howell III 10 Lucas Glover 11 *Rickie Fowler 15 *Hideki Matsuyama 18 *Marc Leishman 19 Pat Perez 24 John Huh 25 Ryan Armour Par-3 Scoring Rank Golfer 1 Tom Hoge 2 *Brandt Snedeker 4 *Rickie Fowler 4 *Graeme McDowell 4 *Adam Scott 10 *Marc Leishman 10 Ryan Armour 24 *Keegan Bradley 24 Camilo Villegas Former champion Jason Day remarked he believed finding fairways and putting were the keys to success at Bay Hill. With fairways plentiful in width and greens that usually run slick, I’ll agree with his assessment. Tee balls that don’t find the generous fairways will be punished with over-seeded rye grass that will make approach shots difficult. This will bring the sand and water into play when attacking the greens. Finding the fairway is a key for scoring because it will be easier to find the proper tier of these above-average sized greens from the short stuff. The Par-3 holes seem to be just as important as the Par-5 holes. They are all listed on the card at 199 yards or better so make three and get out. Palmer is famous for saying “you must play boldly to win” and his design will ask the player that question often throughout the round. Unlike Innisbrook, this resort course allows for the driver to be swung, just as Palmer would prefer. Water also returns to the menu as Bay Hill plays more like PGA National than Innisbrook and that could mean big numbers on the card. Whereas we’ve seen difficult golf down the stretch on the other two Florida stops (think “Bear Trap” and “Snake Pit”) this week the FIRST three holes, as a group, annually rank near the top of difficulty on TOUR. It’s been a dry March in Orlando and the forecast looks excellent so they should be able to set it up anyway they see fit. Of the 39 previous winners, the only European to lift the trophy is Martin Laird in 2011. Another odd statistic is rookies do not fare well here. Maybe they haven’t had enough experience to know when to keep the foot on the brake rather than the gas. The best rookie finish in the last three years is Smylie Kaufman (T12, 2016) but he had already won earlier in the season. It’s a course where veterans who know how to take their medicine will excel. Those same veterans usually excel in course management and are familiar with this track. I’ll point out that world-class players also haven’t had problem adapting. Check “Building Confidence” below for more information. Course Ratings: 2015: 36th-most difficult of 52 played; -0.801(first time under par since reverting to par 72 in 2010) 2016: 28th-most difficult of 50 played; -0.515 2017: 9th-most difficult of 50 played; +0.890 (second-most difficult par 72 behind TPC Sawgrass) Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings will give you more juice for the week so make sure you stop by. It’s also who I trust with the weather each week so pay attention! NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation. Confidence Men Selected golfers with multiple cuts made sorted by rank on the tournament’s money list. Building Confidence Sorted by best finish, selected golfers who are either finally finding form on the course or are still relatively new to the tournament but have enjoyed some success. Other Signs of Confidence Sorted by most recent top 10s, selected golfers for whom it’s been a few years since their last.
