Haas charges out to lead at Phoenix Open

THE OVERVIEW NEWTON SQUARE, Pa. – Good news for the rest of the field at this week’s BMW Championship. Bryson DeChambeau, at age 24, is tired. “Not going to lie. Winning two in a row is a lot more than I thought it would be mentally and physically,â€� he said Wednesday. Not that he’s complaining. With wins in the first two FedExCup Playoffs events, DeChambeau has a lock on the No. 1 spot in the points standings. No matter how he performs at Aronimink, he will remain at the top when the TOUR Championship tees off in two weeks. Although a player has won two tournaments in the same season nine times in the Playoffs’ 12-year history, no player has even won three Playoffs events in the same year. DeChambeau would like to be the first. Of course, in all honesty, if forced to choose, he’d rather win at East Lake than Aronimink, since winning the TOUR Championship would guarantee him the FedExCup. Of the 69 players in this week’s field, DeChambeau is the only one who needn’t bother with points projections or FedExCup movement. He can focus solely on the tournament itself, knowing that the points reset after the BMW Championship will not impact him. It’s a unique position for golf’s most unique player. Not since Vijay Singh in 2008 has a player won the first two Playoffs events – and that was before the points were adjusted to prevent a player from wrapping up the FedExCup prior to East Lake. With less on the line than anybody else, DeChambeau could have easily taken the week off and gained a valuable week of rest while his competitors battle in the Philly heat. Give him credit for simply showing up at Aronimink. “I thought about taking a week off,â€� he said. “I couldn’t do that. I couldn’t do that to the BMW and I couldn’t do that to all the fans and the sponsors that have helped put this event on. “It would be easy for me to say, ‘Hey, I’m just going to skip this week because I’m tired.’ But no, I want to win three in a row and get some world ranking points as well.â€� If DeChambeau does win this week, he would be the first player in the FedExCup era to win tournaments in three consecutive weeks at any point of the season. Tiger Woods won events in three straight weeks near the end of the 2006 season. While he faces a smaller field (69 players) this week than he did at THE NORTHERN TRUST (119 players) or last week’s Dell Technologies Championship (98 players), he realizes the odds are not in his favor. “Going back to statistics, it would be harder to win three in a row,â€� he said Monday after winning at TPC Boston. “But I’ve got a couple of days to prepare on a golf course I’ve never seen before … If I keep executing shots well, I’m going to give myself a chance – just like these last few weeks.â€� Even if he doesn’t win, DeChambeau will at least get a chance to rest in the off-week prior to the TOUR Championship. Well, not really. Two months ago, he bought a house. He closes on it next week. THREE PLAYERS TO PONDER THE FLYOVER At 242 yards, the eighth hole is the longest par 3 at Aronimink. Expect it to be the toughest hole at the course. In 2011 when the course last hosted a PGA TOUR event, the stroke average at the eighth was 3.379, making it the third hardest par 3 on the PGA TOUR that season (out of 206 par-3 holes). An elevated back tee to a narrow green bisected by a mound – par all four days will be more than acceptable. LANDING ZONE The 13th is the shortest par 4 at Aronimink, listed at 385 yards on the scorecard. In 2011, tournament officials moved the tees up in the third, encouraging players to go for the green. Bill Haas had the only successful tee shot of the 41 attempts that round. On most days, players will avoid driver and simply try to find the fairway for a short iron into a guarded green. Here’s a look at where all tee shots landed at the 13th in 2011. WEATHER CHECK From PGA TOUR meteorologist Joe Halvorson: “There is a risk for scattered thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Thursday as a cold front approaches from the north. Storms will be likely along this front Thursday evening into Thursday night. With this boundary stalling just south of the area, showers and thunderstorms will remain possible on Friday, with likely chances forecast during the afternoon hours. Rain will continue overnight into Saturday, likely becoming light and isolated after 10 a.m. Afternoon showers are possible Sunday afternoon as a system lifts though the Great Lakes. The heat index will be in the mid-90s on Thursday.â€� For the latest weather news from Newton Square, Pennsylvania, check out PGATOUR.COM’s Weather Hub. SOUND CHECK He’s answered a lot of questions, I think, for a lot of people the last two weeks. I’m actually inside the number right now. You might forget. BY THE NUMBERS 0 – Number of three-putts in 144 holes played by Tony Finau in the Playoffs. That’s the longest active streak of any player. 42 – Number of players who have the opportunity to move inside the top 5 in FedExCup points. The number doesn’t include Bryson DeChambeau, who is guaranteed to remain No. 1. The 42 players are chasing Nos. 2-5, who will also control their own destiny at East Lake. 48 – Number of spots Hideki Matsuyama has improved in FedExCup points since the start of the Playoffs. That’s the largest move by any player in this week’s field. 1,418 – The projected number of FedExCup points needed to move inside the top 30 for the TOUR Championship. Currently, just 20 players are above that total. Click here for this week’s Scenarios. SCATTERSHOTS Jordan Spieth grew up in Dallas and is a diehard Cowboys fan. As you might imagine, that doesn’t go over well in the land of the reigning Super Bowl champions. During a practice round Tuesday, he kept hearing the same thing from the gallery: “How ‘bout the Eagles?â€� Jordan tried to ignore it, but finally couldn’t. “If you don’t respond, they’ll yell it louder and louder and louder,â€� he said. “So finally just like, ‘Yes, I get it. Thank you.’â€� Added Spieth: “I don’t work for the Cowboys. I’m born and raised in Dallas. Can’t hate a person for being a fan of their hometown team. … I’m sure that won’t be the last time I hear it this week.â€� A year ago, Tony Finau shot a final-round 64 at the BMW Championship at Conway Farms to claw his way inside the top 30 and reach the TOUR Championship. Not only has he already a secured a spot this season, he’s now vying for a coveted top-5 position. “The BMW was a turning point I feel like in my career,â€� Finau said. “I was on the outside looking in going into the final round. I knew I had to put a special round together – and I shot 64. I’ll never forget.â€� If you see players wearing red-and-black ribbons this week, it’s for a good reason. Defending BMW champion Marc Leishman has encouraged the rest of the field to wear the ribbons in honor of Sepsis Awareness month. Leishman’s wife Audrey had a near-death experience with sepsis in the spring of 2015 and soon after started their Begin Again Foundation. 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THE OVERVIEW Bill Haas is the poster boy for Hail Mary FedExCup champs. When he won in 2011, he entered the TOUR Championship that week ranked 25th in points. None of the other nine FedExCup champs were ranked lower than 11th. All the scenarios fell into place for Haas that week. The miracle occurred. Will it happen again this week at East Lake? Seems unlikely. Consider this: Of the top eight players in FedExCup points, three already have won in these Playoffs (Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson and Marc Leishman); three have finished top-10 in every event (Jordan Spieth, Jon Rahm and Justin Rose); and the other two are ranked among the world’s top seven players (Hideki Matsuyama and Rickie Fowler). It’s doubtful all eight will fall far enough to allow a longshot to swoop in and claim the FedExCup. If No. 6 Rory McIlroy had not won a sudden-death playoff last year, then the FedExCup would’ve gone to top-ranked Dustin Johnson. Johnson tied for sixth in the tournament, which would’ve been good enough to deny the other two sudden-death participants (No. 14 Ryan Moore and No. 15 Kevin Chappell) the FedExCup even if either one had won the TOUR Championship. Spieth is No. 1 in points this week and wouldn’t be surprised if the same scenario plays out this Sunday. “I think there’s a likelihood that I’ll be in that situation this year,â€� Spieth said. “I’m not sure. I don’t know who the Rory will be.â€� If there is a longshot FedExCup winner, who are the most likely candidates? Consider these three names: No. 19 Kevin Chappell – He’s talked about the unfinished business he has at East Lake after losing the playoff. He doesn’t have to answer any more questions about playing his way onto the U.S. Presidents Cup team (which he did at TPC Boston). He’s in solid form. And based on his four rounds at East Lake, the course seems to fit his game (two rounds of 66, two rounds of 68). No. 25 Sergio Garcia – His credentials speak for themselves, of course. Has just one top-10 since his Masters win, but he did play well (T12) last week at Conway Farms. Well-familiar with East Lake; this is his ninth appearance at the course. Although he’s never won, he finished solo second in 2008. Having sat out the first Playoffs event, he theoretically should be fresher than anybody else in the field. No. 29 Patrick Cantlay – Amazing effort this season to reach the TOUR Championship in just 12 starts. One of just two TOUR rookies in the field (along with Xander Schauffele). Has been playing his most consistent golf of the season in these Playoffs, finishing T13 or better in each of the three events. Oh, and one other thing about Cantlay – he’s one of eight players in the field making their first start at the TOUR Championship. On two previous occasions in the FedExCup era – and four times since 2003 — a first-timer has won the TOUR Championship. One of those was the miracle boy, Bill Haas. THREE PLAYERS TO PONDER 1. Jordan Spieth Displaying much better form entering this year’s event than he did in 2015; that’s bad news for the rest of the field. 2. Marc Leishman Billy Horschel showed in 2014 that the FedExCup can be won with a hot streak. Is Leishman following that same gameplan? 3. Justin Rose Only golfer in the world with the opportunity to complete this unique career trifecta: Major win, Olympic gold, FedExCup. THE FLYOVER The nines were flipped for the first time last year, allowing players to end their rounds on a 600-yard par 5 instead of a 235-yard par 3 (and theoretically creating the potential for more fireworks down the stretch). The new 18th ranked as the second-easiest hole on the course last year (to the other par-5, the sixth hole), playing to a stroke average of 4.581. “Hitting the fairway is crucial in terms of not only getting to the green but being able to get over the water,â€� said Justin Thomas. Here’s a closer look at the 18th. THE LANDING ZONE One of the most interesting par 3s on the PGA TOUR, the 15th hole can play drastically different depending on its tee-box set-up. In the first round last year, it played to 138 yards with a shorter water carry. (Incidentally, that was the shortest set-up for this hole in the history of the FedExCup Playoffs; traditionally, the shorter distance had been in the 150-155 yard range and used in the third round, not the first.) As for the other three rounds last year, the farther tee boxes were used, making the tee shot more challenging over the entire length of water. In fact, Jordan Spieth called it “one of the harder shots we hit all year.â€� The field stroke average for the 138-yard set-up was 2.867; the cumulative average for the other three rounds was 3.126 (see chart below). But as Dustin Johnson said, “You would take three on that hole every day. Doesn’t matter where the tee is.â€� Here’s a look at where all the tee shots landed last year, along with a stroke average breakdown for each round. WEATHER CHECK Isolated thunderstorms are forecast in the first two rounds by PGA TOUR meteorologist Stewart Williams, but he expects drier and more stable air over the weekend as Hurricane Maria moves up the East Coast. Above-normal temperatures are also expected. Wind conditions are expected to be negligible. Click here for the latest weather conditions from Atlanta, Georgia. SOUND CHECK “It doesn’t matter who you are or how much you’ve achieved – you always want more. I think we’re always very greedy and I think anybody who says that they aren’t is lying to you.â€� – Justin Thomas on being motivated after seeing good friend Jordan Spieth’s early success ODDS AND ENDS 1. SMALL-FIELD VICTORIES. Two years ago, Marc Leishman won the Nedbank Golf Challenge, a 30-man field on the European Tour held in South Africa. He beat Henrik Stenson by six shots. “That’s good stuff to put in the memory bank,â€� Leishman said. “Hopefully I can make this No. 2.â€� Two of Jordan Spieth’s 11 career PGA TOUR wins have come in fields of 35 players or less, including the 2015 TOUR Championship. He also has won the Sentry Tournament of Champions, as has Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed, Dustin Johnson and Sergio Garcia. 2. FIRST-TIME PARTICIPANTS. The eight players making their first trips to East Lake are (with FedExCup ranking) No. 5 Jon Rahm, No. 11 Pat Perez, No. 20 Brian Harman, No. 21 Adam Hadwin, No. 22 Kyle Stanley, No. 24 Tony Finau, No. 26 Xander Schauffele and No. 29 Patrick Cantlay. Rahm, Schauffele and Cantlay are playing in their first FedExCup Playoffs. 3. BUSTING TOP 30 BUBBLE. These five players started the FedExCup Playoffs outside the top 30 in points but managed to play their way into the TOUR Championship – Justin Rose (32), Xander Schauffele (33), Patrick Reed (38), Jason Day (49) and Patrick Cantlay (78). 4. WINLESS BUT ALIVE. Ten players in this week’s field advanced to East Lake without benefit of a win this PGA TOUR season: Justin Rose, Paul Casey, Matt Kuchar, Charley Hoffman, Jason Day, Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed, Tony Finau, Gary Woodland and Patrick Cantlay.

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2022 The Genesis Invitational, Round 2 Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Joaquin Niemann (1, -16, 54.0%) 2. Cameron Young (2, -14, 17.2%) 3. Justin Thomas (3, -11, 15.7%) 4. Adam Scott (T4, -9, 3.4%) 5. Jordan Spieth (T4, -9, 2.6%) 6. Collin Morikawa (6, -8, 1.6%) 7. Cameron Smith (T7, -7, 1.5%) 8. Viktor Hovland (T7, -7, 1.1%) 9. Marc Leishman (T10, -6, 0.3%) 10. Russell Knox (T7, -7, 0.3%) Top Strokes-Gained Performers from Round 2: Putting: Anirban Lahiri +4.0 Around the Green: Vince Whaley +4.0 Approach the Green: Matt Jones +4.1 Off-the-tee: Si Woo Kim +1.9 Total: Cameron Young +8.5 NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of The Genesis Invitational, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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