Francesco Molinari 2.0 continuing torrid run at Masters

2020 Safeway Open, End of Round 1. Scoring Conditions: Overall average: -0.47 strokes per round Morning wave: -0.72 Afternoon wave: -0.22 Current cutline (top 65 and ties) 72 players at -1 or better (T51st position) Top 3 projected cutline probabilities: 2 under par: 26.1% 1 under par: 25.5% 3 under par: 16.7% Top 10 win probabilities: Adam Scott (T1, -7, 25%) Francesco Molinari (T3, -6, 8.1%) Patrick Cantlay (T15, -3, 7.7%) Andrew Landry (T1, -7, 5.8%) Bryson DeChambeau (T8, -4, 4.7%) Justin Thomas (T51, -1, 4.4%) Adam Hadwin (T8, -4, 2.7%) Chez Reavie (T15, -3, 2.7%) Corey Conners (T8, -4, 2.6%) Adam Long (T5, -5, 2.2%) NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Safeway Open, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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True, the on-ramp will arrive earlier and the exit number will be altered, but competitors will have no problem next year recognizing a familiar mile marker when they make their way along the Quail Hollow Club for the 2021 Presidents Cup. Danger and treachery are impossible to disguise. Especially when you’re talking about a stretch of three holes as heralded as those that conclude your round of golf at Quail Hollow. “Just great, great golf holes,� said Mark Russell, the PGA TOUR’s Vice-President of Rules, Competitions and Administration. So great, in fact, that when the match-play format of the TOUR’s biennial team competition was taken into consideration, there was unanimous agreement that “they are such a supreme challenge, we’ve got to get them into the mix,� said Johnny Harris, the president of Quail Hollow. In other words, it was imperative to get next year’s Presidents Cup matches to these demanding tests – the 16th, a par 4 of 506 yards; the 17th, a white-knuckle par 3 of 223 yards over water; and the 18th, a 494-yard par 4 that is guarded entirely on the left by a small creek that looks wider than the Atlantic Ocean. The Green Mile is the nickname that has stuck for 16-17-18 since it was born on a radio talk show live from the playing of the 2004 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow more than 15 years ago. A caller suggested it was like the Stephen King novel turned into a Tom Hanks movie by the same name, a tale about that final walk from death row. A bit grim, perhaps, but the Green Mile has since remained part of the dialogue on annual trips to Quail Hollow. Sadly, the visit was bypassed this year as this week’s Wells Fargo Championship was canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic. But when it returns to the PGA TOUR landscape in 2021, Quail Hollow will bring all its glory to the Presidents Cup, albeit with a different routing so that players get the full package of pressure and fans the complete complement of entertainment. (Next year’s Wells Fargo Championship will be played at TPC Potomac as Quail Hollow prepares for the Presidents Cup.) Thanks to the new routing, the Green Mile (annually, 16-17-18 rank the three toughest holes at the Wells Fargo Championship) will play as Nos. 13-14-15, and if you’re looking for the definition of “no-brainer,� consider this: At the 2019 Presidents Cup in Australia, all 30 matches reached the 15th hole at Royal Melbourne, but 18 of them failed to get to the 18th. “It was probably part of our first conversation with the TOUR and Adam (Sperling, executive director of the Presidents Cup) and his team,� said Johno Harris, Johnny’s son and chairman of the 2021 Presidents Cup. “Everyone was on board and it was an easy conversation to have; we were all thinking that we wanted 16-17-18 to be in play.� (After playing the Green Mile as holes 13-14-15, the adjusted routing will take you to 16-17-18 – what is currently the par-5 10th, then the par-4 11th, then over to the par-4 ninth.) For all the passionate care he pours into Quail Hollow, Johnny Harris concedes that “it was almost by accident� that the re-routing will be seamless for the 2021 Presidents Cup. When players complete the short, dogleg right par-4 eighth hole, rather than turn left and head to what is the ninth tee, they’ll proceed to what is presently the tee box at the par-4 12th and close out their outward nine at a very tight driving hole that features a demanding approach to an elevated green. (The par-3 13th will serve as the 10th hole.) The path that is roughly 80- to 100-yards long meanders behind what is the 11th green and sets up beautifully. While making No. 12 the ninth hole will accommodate the desire to get 16-17-18 earlier into the mix, there is significantly more to the back than the Green Mile. The fun really starts when players step into a unique amphitheater beginning with the tee shot at the par-4 14th, which will be the 11th hole for the Presidents Cup. It’s a 344-yard par 4 that will entice players to try and drive a green that is protected on the left by an expansive body of water that will put a headlock on players’ attention. The water also serves as the centerpiece to an amphitheater designed by Tom Fazio that will be the source of electricity. “You have to step back and marvel at what Tom did to create that amphitheater,� said Johno Harris. “Players (on the 11th) will be looking across the water to see players (at 13 and 14). Crowds will be listening to crowds. That’s what’s going to be fun,� added Johnny Harris. “I’m not sure you get such a wide view anywhere else.� This dynamic stretch of holes – from the short 11th, to the par-5 12th that moves uphill right-to-left and will be reachable in two, then to the famed Green Mile stretch at 13-14-15 – brings water into play, but also the coveted risk-reward mentality. “Every one of those holes creates excitement,� said Johnny Harris, who has been at Quail Hollow since the day it opened and would be on a short list if you jotted down the most passionate and influential supporters of golf. Quail Hollow has hosted PGA TOUR tournaments dating to the 1960s, including annually since 2003, and he was the force behind the PGA Championship coming here in 2017, the first major held in Charlotte, North Carolina. Harris was 11 years old when his father, James, pitched the idea of Quail Hollow to a group of influential North Carolina businessmen. The guest speaker at the gathering in James Harris’ home was a man named Arnold Palmer, who had recently won the 1958 Masters. Not only did the evening help raise the funds for James Harris to build Quail Hollow, it poured the foundation to Johnny Harris’ lifelong friendship with Arnold Palmer. Not a bad introduction into a lifetime love affair with golf, eh? It’s one that Johnny Harris doesn’t take for granted and one that leaves him qualified to pass judgment on what works and doesn’t work in golf. And what works at that stretch of holes that will be played as Nos. 11-15 in 2021 is the “go or not go� mentality. Do you try to drive the green at 11? Go for 12 green in two? How aggressive will you be with your approach to 13 green, with water looming? Ditto your tee shot at the par-3 14th. Rip a driver at the tight 15th or lay back with a safer shot? “Those holes present a huge advantage or huge disadvantage in a match play environment,� Johnny Harris said. “The fans will love it.� The 24 players that week might view it differently, given the pressure they’ll be facing. But it’s not like they aren’t familiar with both sides of the risk-reward nature of those holes at Quail Hollow. Johno Harris points to one of the best shots he’s ever seen, Justin Thomas’ 7-iron at the par-3 17th (No. 14 in 2021) that pretty much sealed his win in the 2017 PGA Championship. Jason Day’s win at the 2018 Wells Fargo Championship was cemented with a brilliant birdie at the 17th. Then there was Rickie Fowler’s first PGA TOUR win at the 2012 Wells Fargo Championship, his approach stuffed tight to a difficult pin on the 18th to beat Rory McIlroy and D.A. Points in a playoff. Ah, but the heartaches have been plentiful, too, starting with David Toms in the inaugural Wells Fargo Championship in 2003. Johnny Harris stood greenside and watched Toms take four putts to finish off an ugly quadruple-bogey – yet win by two. “It’s the only time I’ve been allowed to give a ride to the winner,� he laughed. Phil Mickelson has played Quail Hollow beautifully through the years (a second, two thirds, 10 top-10s) but has squandered chances to win on the Green Mile. He made three double-bogeys at 17 in 2005, bogeyed 16 and 17 on Sunday to lose to Derek Ernst in 2013, and never really recovered from a quadruple-bogey at 18 in Round 3 in 2016. Trevor Immelman, who will be captain of the International Team in 2021, three-putted the 72nd green, then lost the Wells Fargo Championship in a playoff in 2006. But he has always credited that visit to Quail Hollow with doing a lot for his career and embraces the re-routing of the holes. “We know the golf course, from the drivable 14th (No. 11) to 15 the par 5 (No. 12), then the Green Mile. When players have the opportunity in match play a little bit more aggressively,� said Immelman, “I think it is going to provide some pretty good entertainment and a nice opportunity for these guys to show off their skills.� It’s hard to argue with Immelman. But you might add that the entire 2021 Presidents Cup will enable Quail Hollow to flash its character and style.

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