For Davis Love III, a father-son outing at the US Open

2020 the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide, Round 2 Top 10 win probabilities: Jon Rahm (3, -8, 28.7%) Tony Finau (T1, -9, 20.9%) Ryan Palmer (T1, -9, 11.3%) Gary Woodland (T4, -6, 6.2%) Chez Reavie (T4, -6, 4.4%) Patrick Cantlay (T8, -4, 4.2%) Justin Thomas (T16, -3, 3.6%) Viktor Hovland (T8, -4, 3.5%) Jason Day (7, -5, 3.0%) Rory McIlroy (T21, -2, 2.0%) Top Strokes-Gained Performers from Round 2: Putting: Danny Willett +5.5 Around the Green: Mackenzie Hughes +2.8 Approach the Green: Gary Woodland +4.6 Off-the-tee: Abraham Ancer +2.0 Total: Jason Day +7.1 NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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NOTE: For the first three events of the FedExCup Playoffs, Rob will focus only on golfers outside the bubble to advance. In this first edition, all five below open the Playoffs outside the top 100 in points. Danny Lee … At 103rd in the FedExCup standings, he’s nearest the bubble to advance of the five featured here, but that’s fact over friction. The 28-year-old salvaged his berth with top 25s in his last three starts after dropping to 124th in points. While scoring is always relative, it’s still impressive that he connected sub-70s in each of those tournaments: Barbasol Championship (T21), RBC Canadian Open (T6), Wyndham Championship (T24). Given his form, the overall resurgence and the likelihood that he might need no better than a top 50 play on, he’s an easy call. Harold Varner III … Turned around his season in July with a T5 at Greenbrier, a solo sixth at TPC Deere Run and a T17 at Glen Abbey. The Charlotte native then signed for four rounds in the 60s at Sedgefield, but that was worth but a T53 in the shootout. It didn’t matter in the construct of getting to the Playoffs for the third time in as many tries because he’s 106th in points. He’s also survived the cut in all four starts in his Playoffs experience, the highlight a T20 at last year’s NORTHERN TRUST that vaulted him from 123rd to 91st in points. Since the current points system was first utilized in 2015, he and Camilo Villegas (also 123rd in 2015) are the lowest seeds to advance. Martin Laird … While he’s not necessarily in the crosshairs of converging trends, it’ll do for the purposes of the objective here. Debuted in the FedExCup Playoffs with a T7 at Ridgewood in 2008, and then served as Matt Kuchar’s playoff victim upon return in 2010. Laird didn’t qualify in 2014, but he’s essentially the same talent who we’ve always known him to be at now 35 years of age. Balanced nicely in the long-term but still tilts toward the streaky over consistency. Seeded 113th and just two weeks removed from a T15 at the Barracuda Championship where he’s always performed well. Tyler Duncan and Sam Ryder … It’s been three years since a PGA TOUR rookie started the Playoffs outside the top 100 and advanced. This duo is chasing what Zac Blair and Carlos Ortiz achieved as rookies in 2015. Duncan (108th in points) finally hit a wall at the Wyndham Championship where he missed the cut by six strokes. It ended his streak of consecutive paydays at 12. He’s one of the most accurate tee-to-green, so it stands to reason that relatively unfamiliar putting surfaces will help below-average putting, his weakness. Ryder (114th) was outside the bubble until going T2-T7 at the John Deere and Barbasol. He also struggles with the putter, but he’s even more precise with his ball-striking than Duncan. Seeing that a top-30 finish is both the ticket to TPC Boston and a reasonable expectation for both rookies, Blair and Ortiz should be getting ready for company.

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