Follow today’s final round live, as Tiger Woods (1:50 p.m. ET tee time) is within striking distance of his first tournament win in almost five years.
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NOTE: If you play PGA TOUR Champions One & Done presented by SERVPRO, the KitchenAid Senior PGA Championship begins on Thursday. It’s the second of five majors on the circuit and the first of three with a cut. See the possibilities at the bottom of the page to assist you in determining your pick. In a fantasy world not all that long ago, you’d have burned Zach Johnson at the DEAN & DELUCA Invitational and Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic, collected your FedExCup points or earnings and coasted into the following week on a heater. But as all good things come to an end, so did that exacta. Turning the page can be difficult – just ask full-season gamers who drafted Tiger Woods in the last couple of years – but it’s necessary. In fact, it’s a prerequisite for success and it embodies the essence of why fantasy sports are so important to the general fan base. It doesn’t mean that we still can’t root for ZJ and Stricker (and Woods) as fans, but our objective of defeating our competition is the only goal in fantasy. Colonial Country Club has been very, very good to Johnson. He’s 11-for-11 with two wins, a total of five top 10s and sits atop the tournament’s all-time money list, but he’s not a recommendation for even two-man gamers this week. Save him for your No. 1 or 2 slot when the JDC rolls around in mid-July as he replaced Stricker as the main man in their native region. The love for Jason Dufner among my fellow little leaguers is obvious and warranted. He’ll do just fine in bridging you to next week, if not reigniting the feels that ZJ once sparked. Note that this is the last regular PGA TOUR event among Dufner’s suggested Future Possibilities, so it’s nice when decisions are that easy. Colonial member Ryan Palmer is at worst the tail of the tandem for two-man gamers. His level of comfort and course knowledge is second to none. In the entirety of the season, Colonial is the only track at which he’d contend to be the pick in a classic one-and-done game like what’s offered at PGATOUR.COM, but due to how deep we are into 2016-17, he’s even more attractive to plug this gap. Giants such as defending champion Jordan Spieth, Jon Rahm and Sergio Garcia present better elsewhere, although I’d be a fool to pretend to talk you out of Spieth if you’re in an earnings-based format. Now that he’s decided to go back to his old putter for the DEAN & DELUCA, it’s a splendid time to pounce as you know some of your opposition won’t be in the know and mesmerized by his 0-for-2 “rut.” As for me, I’ve had my eye on Kevin Kisner for a while. It’s time to pull the trigger. You may recall that I was sizing him up for THE PLAYERS, but veered toward Garcia instead. Other than a mini-slump upon arrival, Kisner checks all of the boxes in terms of course fit and success. What’s most exciting is how he’s proven that the past is the past and it doesn’t dictate the future, so his little skid worries me zero. In addition to Palmer, two-man gamers should give long looks at Bud Cauley, Kyle Reifers, Nick Taylor and Sung Kang. FUTURE POSSIBILITIES NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2016-17. All are pending golfer commitment. Jason Bohn … Greenbrier Paul Casey … Travelers; WGC-Bridgestone; TOUR Championship Jason Dufner … DEAN & DELUCA; U.S. Open; TOUR Championship Harris English … DEAN & DELUCA Tony Finau … Memorial Sergio Garcia … Open Championship; TOUR Championship Bill Haas … Wyndham Charley Hoffman … DEAN & DELUCA; Travelers; Canadian Billy Horschel … St. Jude; TOUR Championship Zach Johnson … DEAN & DELUCA; John Deere; Open Championship; WGC-Bridgestone; TOUR Championship Chris Kirk … DEAN & DELUCA Kevin Kisner … DEAN & DELUCA; Wyndham Matt Kuchar … DEAN & DELUCA; Memorial; Canadian; WGC-Bridgestone Martin Laird … Barracuda Marc Leishman … DEAN & DELUCA; Memorial; Travelers; Open Championship Graeme McDowell … Open Championship; WGC-Bridgestone; Wyndham William McGirt … Memorial (defending); Wyndham Phil Mickelson … St. Jude; Open Championship; PGA Championship Bryce Molder … DEAN & DELUCA; Greenbrier Ryan Moore … Travelers; John Deere (defending); TOUR Championship Ryan Palmer … DEAN & DELUCA; St. Jude Scott Piercy … John Deere; BMW Webb Simpson … Greenbrier; Wyndham Brandt Snedeker … DEAN & DELUCA; U.S. Open; Travelers; Canadian; Wyndham Jordan Spieth … DEAN & DELUCA (defending); John Deere; WGC-Bridgestone; PGA Championship; TOUR Championship Kevin Streelman … Memorial Boo Weekley … St. Jude; Barbasol CHAMPIONS ONE & DONE POSSIBILITIES KitchenAid Senior PGA Championship Trump National Golf Club’s Championship Course in Virginia hosts for the first time. It’s a par 72 measuring 7,130 yards. The tournament’s purse of $2.8 million is tied for second-largest of the season. Only the U.S. Senior Open Championship at $3.75 million is greater. Golfers listed alphabetically. Rob’s serious considerations in bold. Stephen Ames … Chased his breakthrough win with top 20s in the last two. Hasn’t yet recorded a top 10 in a major. Tommy Armour III … The tour’s longest hitter has just one top 10 on the season (T2, Insperity). John Daly … Answered his breakthrough title at the Insperity Invitational with a T32 at the Regions Tradition, and that required a closing 65. Carlos Franco … Eighth in earnings but it’s a top-heavy season with a T2 at the Allianz Championship in February and a victory alongside Vijay Singh at the Bass Pro Shops Legends. Fred Funk … The tour’s most accurate driver has a T3, a T2 and a T4 in his last four starts, but he hasn’t recorded a top 10 in the Senior PGA since his debut in 2009. Jay Haas … Two-time winner (2006, 2008) has a total of five top-three finishes in this tournament in which he’s second on the all-time money list. Two top 10s in individual competition in 2017. Lee Janzen … Ranks 21st on the money list despite just one top 10 at the season opener at Hualalai. Miguel Angel Jiménez … A third-round 74 at the Regions Tradition (T20) thwarted a sixth consecutive top 10, but it’s his only score or par or worse all year. Bernhard Langer … Picked up his eighth career title in a major at last week’s Regions Tradition. The Senior PGA Championship is the only major on the PGA TOUR Champions that he hasn’t won. Tom Lehman … The 2010 champ is 11th on the 2017 money list with a win and no worse than a T16 in his last five starts. T6 at last week’s Regions Tradition. Ranks second in ball-striking. Scott McCarron … Fulfilled the expectation last week with a co-runner-up. Second in earnings this season with a win and another three top-six finishes. Rocco Mediate … The defending champion but on a different course. Only one top 20 in his last seven starts and sits 42nd in earnings. Colin Montgomerie … In three starts in this tournament, he has two wins and a runner-up. Arrives in uncharacteristically pedestrian form, however, and slots 44th on the money list. Kenny Perry … Only one finish outside a top 20 in his last eight starts. Currently sixth on the money list. Gene Sauers … Ranks third on the PGA TOUR Champions in ball-striking and leads in one-putt percentage. No top 10s in four starts in this tournament, but has four this season. T10 last week. Vijay Singh … Tournament debut. After winning the Ball Pro Shops Legends with Carlos Franco, settled for solo 64th at last week’s Region’s Tradition. Jeff Sluman … Hasn’t missed a major since turning 50 in 2007. Seven top 25s this season. Kevin Sutherland … While his top-10 streak ended at nine with last week’s T13, he’s now gone over 13 months without finishing outside a top 20. Fifth in earnings, highest among non-winners. David Toms … Quietly humming along at 18th on the money list. T6 at the Regions Tradition marked his major debut on the circuit. Kirk Triplett … Two top 10s and another pair of top 20s in four starts in this tournament. Strong major record overall. Four top 10s this season. Duffy Waldorf … Solid season features three top 10s and another three top 20s, but he’s converted on just two top 10s in majors since 2014.
2021 Valero Texas Open, Round 1 Scoring Conditions: Overall: +1.37 strokes per round Morning wave: +1.63 Afternoon wave: +1.11 Current cutline (top 65 and ties) 79 players at +1 or better (T57) Top 3 projected cutline probabilities: 1. 2 over par: 41.0% 2. 1 over par: 30.5% 3. 3 over par: 17.9% Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Cameron Tringale (T2, -6, 18.1%) 2. Hideki Matsuyama (T4, -5, 14.5%) 3. Jordan Spieth (T4, -5, 10.1%) 4. Scottie Scheffler (T7, -4, 9.9%) 5. Camilo Villegas (1, -8, 7.8%) 6. Sebastian Munoz (T7, -4, 4.9%) 7. Seung-Yul Noh (T4, -5, 2.4%) 8. Tom Hoge (T7, -4, 2.3%) 9. Matt Kuchar (T13, -2, 1.9%) 10. Matt Wallace (T10, -3, 1.8%) NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live "Make Cut", "Top 20", "Top 5", and "Win" probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Valero Texas Open, or to see how each golfer's probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model's home page.
The Tiger Woods expectations are higher than ever following his T-9 finish last week at the Hero World Challenge, during which he showed plenty of distance and looked more like vintage Tiger than he has in years. Two-time British Open winner Greg Norman did his best to temper those expectations during a press conference in Naples, Fla. at the QBE Shootout tournament, which he founded in 1989. “You just hope it continues on for him, because a lot of the stuff he’s done has been self inflicted,� Norman said. “A lot of the stuff that he’s going through now is more, you know, the wear and tear of the body hitting a lot of golf balls. Being a power player, your body breaks down and that’s going to
