Five wins and a lucky silver dollar

They were the two biggest names in the mix. And yet, instead of making a charge, they both backed up Saturday. Sadly, it’s becoming a theme for them.

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2019 WGC-Mexico Championship, End of Round 2: Top 10 win probabilities: Dustin Johnson (1, -11): 44.1% Rory McIlroy (T2, -9): 19.4% Matt Kuchar (T2, -9): 11.7% Tommy Fleetwood (T4, -7): 5.2% Sergio Garcia (T4, -7): 4.3% Tiger Woods (T8, -5): 2.5% Ian Poulter (T6, -6): 2.2% Cameron Smith (T6, -6): 2.1% Justin Thomas (T16, -3): 1.4% Tyrrell Hatton (T8, -5): 1.2% Best second round performances: SG: Total: Tommy Fleetwood (+6.22) SG: Off-the-tee: Rory McIlroy (+2.89) SG: Approach: Joost Luiten (+3.41) SG: Around-the-green: Kevin Kisner (+2.83) SG: Putting: Tiger Woods (+3.65) NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the WGC-Mexico Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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To finish inside the prize money in PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live at the AT&T Byron Nelson, you needed to be on the pre-tournament line of K.H. Lee to win at +10000. And yet, even that may not have been enough. The top-eight performers all connected on Lee at that kickback, but since only the top five pay, it required more than just that. Since cashing in this game can require considerable luck, it’s the best reminder and example that everyone wins at PointsBet when you nail the selection. Consider finishing inside the money in Pick ‘Em Live as a bonus to whatever you can wrangle on your own. Repeating the message at which our resident experts grimace, Rob and Glass are ineligible. Remember, when Rob finished third at The Honda Classic, the $750 reserved for the bronze slid to the next-best gamer. When Rob decides on his picks, he assigns a dollar value to his confidence and makes a note of it as a way to get a feel for the experience of the real thing. As a result, he estimates that, with “phantom bets” of $10-$100 on a variety of his selections in real time since the game launched at The Genesis Invitational, he’d have grossed about $20K by now. That includes what would have been a $50 bet on K.H. Lee to win when his odds were +5000 at the conclusion of the third round. (Don’t worry, he’s not quitting his day job.) That bet on Lee lifted Rob to 27th place at TPC Craig Ranch. So, he now has six top 30s in 12 events, and it all starts here, in Pick ‘Em Preview. This week’s early edition is special for the PGA Championship. Because the interface will not begin reflecting the tournament until Tuesday and perhaps not until tee times are released, only the three weeklong bets and the R1 leader are included below. When Glass and Rob decide on the R1 bets used in Pick ‘Em Live, look for their selections on their Twitter pages. Glass goes by, what else, @MikeGlasscott, while Rob’s corners the market on o’s for @RobBoltonGolf. Register for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live here and monitor their progress as Influencers. For a broader explanation of the format and FAQs, click here. TOURNAMENT TO WIN Rob … Matt Fitzpatrick (+5000) Jordan Spieth (+1800) tops my Power Rankings, but I’ll open with value as usual. Southern Hills promises that a household name will be posing for pictures with the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday. Last time I checked, there are households in Fitzpatrick’s native England. He’s also in my PR. Fairways won’t punish him, while the challenging greens and surrounding areas will allow his short game to shine (when necessary). And when par is a worthy score, the gritty Brit doesn’t quit. Glass … Hideki Matsuyama (+2800) Phil Mickelson’s odds notwithstanding, there haven’t been many longshots in major championship golf holding the trophy at the end of 72 holes of grit and grind. Like Rob, I expect that to continue again this week. The 2021 Masters champion has plenty of firepower to get it around. Plus, his short game doesn’t get the credit it should for as sharp as it can be. With a recent major on the shelf and injuries (knocks on wood) behind him, he’s rested and ready to add to his collection of two wins this season. TOP 10 Rob … Talor Gooch (+800) Right? I might as well. Local boy does good. A top 20 is a smarter play at an actual betting window, but I don’t even care if this winds up being a push among the set-and-forget crowd. I just want a piece of this action. Glass … Matt Kuchar (+1100) I was just as shocked as you were to learn that his top 10s at the PGA Champions have come TWICE at Whistling Straits (T7, T10), plus once each at Quail Hollow and his last in 2019 at Bethpage Black in what were less than stellar conditions. Firm and fast will help, as will his incredible short game. Flying under the radar this week, but his recent form suggests he shouldn’t be that far out of sight. TOP 20 Glass … Harry Higgs (+1200) Not exactly the hometown hero but Kansas City isn’t that far away. His recent form suggests this isn’t the play, but … his first major was T4 at Kiawah Island. The next was T14 at Augusta National a month ago. If you’re concerned with windows closing/opening, I’d take a look at Jhonattan Vegas at +500. Remember, I had Sebastián Muñoz as my “back-up” as a Top 10 last week. Rob … Min Woo Lee (+900) The 23-year-old Aussie was so scared in his debut at Augusta National that he went ahead and finished T14. He hasn’t played since and I don’t care. Swagger that can generate that doesn’t rust. He’s played only in the U.S. since February, so his focus is singular as he chases a PGA TOUR card. ROUND 1 LEADER NOTE: When Pick ‘Em Preview was filed on Monday night, tee times weren’t yet released. For this bet, Glass and Rob always pluck a guy in the early wave, so if either selection lands in the late draw, it’s likely that what you see on their cards among the Influencers will not match what you read below. Glass … Joaquin Niemann (+5000) In his last six individual stroke-play events starting with 63 at Riviera, the Chilean has broken 70 in five of them. Posting 67 at TPC Sawgrass and 65 at Harbour Town, he “stumbled” last week with just 67 at TPC Craig Ranch. I guess I could have just told you he’s second on TOUR in first-round scoring average, but that’s not as much fun! Jason Day would also get a look here as his PGA pedigree is very solid. Rob … Justin Thomas (+3000) I love that Glass omitted that Niemann shot 2-over 74 on Sunday at TPC Craig Ranch … because it’s exactly the kind of zag that plays into his mitts. He stole my guy on the upbeat! Not that falling into JT constitutes but a consolation prize, however. The 2017 PGA champ leads the PGA TOUR in second-round scoring average, so there’s that, and he’s first in actual scoring average, thank you very much. He also leads in … well, you get the picture. It’s what makes JT JT. Yes, he can be a slow starter, but that’s my sharp angle.

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