FedExCup update: Cink wants to know

The TOUR leaves Kiawah Island, and so does Phil Mickelson with his sixth major title. The TOUR travels from the historic 2021 PGA Championship to the storied Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, for the Charles Schwab Challenge. The course will play as a par 70, measuring 7,209 and will be putt on bentgrass greens. There are 121 players in the field, and the standard top 65 and ties make the cut. The Charles Schwab Challenge was the first tournament back after the COVID-19 shut down last season. Daniel Berger (+1800, $10,000) is your defending champion. STRATEGY The field moves back to its usual field size of 121 golfers after seeing its most robust group of 156 golfers in 2020, with every player on TOUR looking to get back to action post-COVID-19 shut down. The slimmer field will host some of the best golfers in the world like Justin Thomas (+1000, $11,000), Jordan Spieth (+850, $11,200), Tony Finau (+1600, $9,600), Justin Rose (+3300, $8,900), Collin Morikawa (+1400, $10,500), Abraham Ancer (+1400, $9700) and Patrick Reed (+1800, $10,300). With close to 54% or more of players potentially making the weekend, this week should result in one of the highest percentages of lineups having all six golfers make the cut. Colonial Country Club has been one of the longest-tenured courses on the PGA TOUR, with this being its 76th season hosting a tournament. Colonial isn’t known for playing difficult like the Ocean Course, but it’s been ranked inside the top-10 in difficulty scoring relative to par over the past few years. Like last week, the winds can cause havoc at Colonial. The tournaments held in 2012, 2014 and 2019 all recorded either higher than average or severe wind conditions, with the winning score averaging around 12-under. We’ve seen close to 20% of rounds over the previous four years register very windy conditions. The fairways are tight and tree-lined, making any wayward tee shots challenging to recover from if the golfers find trouble. The greens are below average in size, measuring 5,000 square feet, but the average greens in regulation (GIR) hit here is close to the TOUR average. Initially, we would think that smaller greens result in a smaller percentage of GIR, but it doesn’t. Over the previous five years, the highest distribution of approach shots has come from 125 to 175 yards, which are relatively easy scoring opportunities for these guys. Similar to other traditional layouts on TOUR, like Pete Dye’s Harbour Town Golf Links and TPC Sawgrass, Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green will be the predominant statistic that will lead to success. DraftKings scoring will need to come from a massive amount of birdies, with one of the lowest eagle rates on TOUR. Also, with nine par 4s measuring under 450 yards, rostering golfers who rank high in shorter par 4s should take precedent over golfers who aren’t succeeding on these holes. This classical course layout lends itself to all types of golfers. Kevin Na (+6600; $8,400) can win with an impeccable short game, while Rose can do it with tremendous ball-striking, shooting 20-under, gaining 10.2 strokes with his irons, and four strokes Off-the-Tee. GOLFERS TO CONSIDER Joaquin Niemann (+2500 to Win, $9,300 on DraftKings) When we’re back on bentgrass, we should be backing the Chilean sensation, who ranks 20th in approach over the previous 24 rounds. Niemann has only lost strokes with his irons in one tournament out of his past 11 and has played well on shorter courses like Colonial, finishing fifth at the RBC Heritage in 2020 and second at this year’s Sony Open at Waialae CC. Chris Kirk (+6600 to Win, $7,600 on DraftKings) Kirk is just 10 spots behind Niemann at 30th in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green over the same timeframe but ranks the highest out of anyone in the field in Par 4 efficiency from 400 to 450 yards over the previous 24 rounds. On courses at or below 7,200 yards, Kirk ranks 27th in putting and eighth in birdies gained over his last two dozen rounds. Like Niemann, Kirk has been great on these shorter, classical courses, finishing seventh at the RBC Heritage and second at the Sony Open this year. Refer a friend and get $20 DK Dollars! Head to the DraftKings Playbook Promo page for more details! Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $750K Flop Shot [$200K to 1st] Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game. All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. 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Jon Rahm chipped in for birdie and made a late eagle putt for a 7-under 64 and a six-way share of the lead in the first round of the Mexico Open on Thursday.

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THE OVERVIEW Based on pure numbers, none of the courses in the current CareerBuilder Challenge rotation are especially difficult — and yet, one of the three certainly is more challenging than the other two. The Stadium Course at PGA West joined the rotation two years ago and has played significantly tougher than either the Nicklaus Tournament Course or La Quinta Country Club during that span. All three courses are par 72s; the Stadium Course has played to a yearly stroke average of 0.797 under par, while the Nicklaus Tournament is 2.159 under par and La Quinta is 2.609 under par. In fact, in 2016, the Nicklaus and La Quinta courses were two of the three easiest on the PGA TOUR; last year, La Quinta was the second-easiest , behind only the Plantation Course at Kapalua. Thus, the theory is that players will need to go low this week on the two easiest courses while playing more defensive at the Stadium Course (players making the cut after the third round all play the Stadium Course in the final round). A year ago, Hudson Swafford took that approach in winning his first PGA TOUR event. He opened with a pair of 65s at La Quinta and Nicklaus, then shot 71 at the Stadium Course. He followed with a 67 in the final round on the Stadium to overtake Adam Hadwin. Hadwin, by the way, shot himself into the third-round lead by shooting 59 at La Quinta – 10 strokes lower than what he shot the previous day at the Stadium Course. “You need to go low on at least one, I think,â€� Swafford said of the La Quinta and Nicklaus courses. “… I don’t think you need to go out and you have to shoot for a 62 or 63, but I think you just need to play solid golf all week to have a chance. A lot of 4- and 5-unders, give yourself a chance on the back nine on Sunday.â€� Sounds like a solid plan. THREE PLAYERS TO PONDER Patton Kizzire – Ranked 292nd in the world at start of November; thanks to his two wins, he’s now 54th and leading the FedExCup. Phil Mickelson – Making his first start in 2018; based on his most recent starts, he’s showing signs of ending that pesky drought. Bill Haas – His last TOUR win came here three years ago, and he’s not trending well with MCs in his last two starts. THE FLYOVER Last year, there were 201 par-3 holes played on the PGA TOUR, and two of the toughest can be found at the Stadium Course at PGA West. The 223-yard sixth ranked at the 13th most difficult with a stroke average of 3.227. The 195-yard 13th ranked as the 30th most difficult. The common bond? Water is in play on both holes. THE LANDING ZONE Speaking of water, the closing hole at the Stadium Course has plenty. Water guards the entire length down the left side of the fairway at the 435-yard par-4 18th. No surprise that it was the fourth most difficult hole on the course. Here’s where all tee shots landed last year. WEATHER CHECK From PGA TOUR meteorologist Stewart Williams: “A mix of sun and high clouds can be expected on Thursday, making for partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the mid to upper 70s. A low pressure system will move inland into California on Friday that will bring windy and cooler conditions on Friday. Can’t rule out an isolated shower, but most areas will remain dry. Otherwise, clearing skies return Saturday with cool temperatures expected through the rest of the weekend. Highs each day will likely warm into the mid 60s with lows in the 40s and even upper 30s Sunday morning.â€� For the latest weather news from La Quinta, California, check out PGATOUR.COM’s Weather Hub. SOUND CHECK I truly believe that right now I’m a dreamer, I want to keep dreaming about achieving more things here as a professional golfer. And probably later on in my career I’ll sit back and say, well I maybe had a pretty good career. But right now there’s a lot of things that I want to achieve. BY THE NUMBERS 30 – Birdies made by Jason Dufner when he won in 2016 and Patrick Reed when he won in 2014. Since 2010, just two other winners of a 72-hole event have made 30 birdies (Justin Thomas at the 2015 CIMB Classic and Steve Stricker at the 2010 John Deere Classic). 67.92 – Phil Mickelson’s career stroke average at the CareerBuilder Challenge since 2002. He’s the only player with a stroke average under 68 in this event (minimum 22 rounds). 6,605 – Cumulative under-par score on the par 5s at the CareerBuilder Challenge since 2012. That’s 2,842 strokes easier than any other tournament’s par-5 holes during that span. Scattershots  Palm Desert High School senior Charlie Reiter is playing on a sponsor invite. It’s his first PGA TOUR start and second in a professional tournament; he tied for 65th at the 2017 Emeritus Australian Open. Reiter will play golf at USC following graduation. … Another young player to watch is Maverick McNealy, also playing on a sponsor’s exemption. McNealy, the former top amateur player, made his pro debut last fall at the Safeway Open, where he finished T-52. … There have been eight multiple winners of this event – Arnold Palmer (five times) and Billy Casper, John Mahaffey, Johnny Miller, Corey Pavin, John Cook, Phil Mickelson and Bill Haas. Miller is the only back-to-back winner in 1975-76.

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