Fantasy Insider: The American Express

Once upon a time, and as recently as 2016, La Quinta Country Club was not the easiest of the host courses of The American Express. That was the last edition that the Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA WEST was the friendliest of the trio, although it wasn’t by much over La Quinta CC. From 2017-2020, La Quinta CC has been the easiest par 72 of all courses in every season. In the context of only the three par 72s used for this tournament, it was comfortably the easiest until 2020 when Nick Tourney was mere percentage points harder. RELATED: Five Things to Know about Stadium Course | PGATOUR.COM Expert Picks As noted in Monday’s Power Rankings, this is the second edition since the greens on Nick Tourney were transitioned to TifEagle bermuda. Also noted, other factors may have (and probably) contributed to a measurably higher scoring average (70.949) compared to previous years. The Stadium Course averaged 71.032 over the same two first rounds last year before settling at 70.809 cumulatively for the tournament. Mildly inclement weather including gusty winds at times can’t be ruled out as having an impact in the second and third rounds. All right, so those are the pieces on the board. With an aggregate 12 scores contributing to your first three rounds in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf – assuming you play four starters per round – the objective is to max out on all six on La Quinta. That much is simple. The question is when. Weather in the first two rounds is going to be perfect, but winds are forecast to freshen for Saturday’s third round. It shouldn’t get crazy out there, but it’s enough to consider modifying your roster for an edge. My fantasy philosophy follows reality. If you’re one of the 156 in the tournament and you know that you’re going to have to take advantage of the easiest course when it’s playing the easiest, you’re going to prefer a tee time on La Quinta CC in the first or second round. So do I as a gamer. If you’re not familiar with this approach, it’s going to feel counterintuitive, and you’re going to want to argue that you should lean on La Quinta CC when the winds blow, but all of the courses still will surrender red numbers on Saturday. That’s insurance. If you back-end for La Quinta CC in the third round, and the wind forecast holds, all you’re going to do is invest in a scoring average that likely will be a little higher and possibly closer to the same on the other two tracks, and then you’ll have wasted the opportunity on a greater probability of very low scores in the first two rounds, not to mention the bonus points that go with low rounds of the day and bogey-free scores. For the course rotation, read my tweet immediately below. Tee times for all three rounds can be found here. PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf My roster for The American Express (in alphabetical order): Patrick Cantlay Sungjae Im Seamus Power Jon Rahm Scottie Scheffler Matthew Wolff You’ll find my starters in Expert Picks. POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD Si Woo Kim (+200 for a Top 20) … It’s not often when the defending champ lands here, but it makes sense, doesn’t it? While we could say the same thing for close to 100 percent of membership every week, we never know what to expect from this guy in the short-term. Even when he’s humming along, we hold our breath that his back will be fine. The weather won’t be the problem this week, so it’s a good time to exercise an elevated expectation. Of course, the issue with that is that you’ll be swimming among casual gamers that think that he’s an automatic play as the defending champ. In the strategic world of gaming, that slot him as a no-play. DRAWS Rickie Fowler (+240 for a Top 20) … In doses, but yes. He connected for a T3 at THE CJ CUP @ SUMMIT and added a pair of middling paydays before separating for the birth of his first child in November. Obviously, we can’t rule out the Nappy Factor in advance of the best of life experiences, nor should we dismiss it in its wake. He also finished T10 and T21 in the last editions of the Amex, respectively, so even as he’s endured a slow slide in form, PGA WEST has been kind. Jhonattan Vegas (+240 for a Top 20) … He’s celebrating the 11-year anniversary of his breakthrough victory at the Amex. While he’s managed only one top 30 in nine returns (T11, 2018), that’s in part due to the dynamic scoring that the tournament yields (a fact that strengthens the support for others who have demonstrated consistently strong form here), but he deserves this endorsement thanks to his own dynamite play over the past 11 months. Sets up nicely in DFS, especially. K.H. Lee (+300 for a Top 20) … He’s been a regular contributor in all formats, and there’s no reason to think he’s going to quit anytime soon. Five consecutive cuts made upon arrival, the first three going for a top 25. Also cashed in his last two trips to PGA WEST. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+225 for a Top 20) Adam Hadwin (+300 for a Top 20) Brian Harman (+300 for a Top 20) Russell Knox (+300 for a Top 20) Alex Noren (+275 for a Top 20) Odds sourced on Tuesday, January 11 at 5 a.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm. FADES Russell Henley … He’s a professional and he knew that he was making the trip before the weekend at Waialae, so our speculation concerns only how he’s digesting getting edged by hungry Hideki Matsuyama on Sunday. Henley still closed with 65, so I’m defaulting to him tipping his cap to the champ. At the same time, the energy spent takes a toll. The clincher is that he’s missed four consecutive cuts at PGA WEST. Phil Mickelson … He’s 0-for-2 since rising from tournament ambassador to host in 2020 and, of course, he’s also turned 50 along the way. What’s great is that the 2021 PGA Championship title always is his, but it’s an outlier at this level. Unless he starts connecting top 25s again, he likely won’t be appearing on this page even infrequently. Gary Woodland … In his last 12 starts dating back to Memorial in June, he’s missed seven cuts but also hung up a trio of top-11 finishes. He hasn’t complained about residual pain in his back and as a result of a torn labrum in his hip, but we still must wonder if those injuries in late 2020 generated habits that have been harder to break than usual. Jason Day … It hasn’t penalized many others before him, but it’s still noteworthy that he’s making his tournament debut. The 34-year-old Aussie connected top 15s last summer, but they’ve remained his only top 30s in 10 months. Troy Merritt Francesco Molinari Pat Perez Brandt Snedeker Hudson Swafford Harold Varner III RETURNING TO COMPETITION Cameron Champ … All set to get back after it at Kapalua after shutting it down in the fall due to an injured left wrist, but he tested positive for COVID-19 and couldn’t play. It was the second time that he was bumped from a field due to a positive test (2020 Travelers Championship). Full-season investors will trust that he’s at or close to 100 percent again, but weekly gamers are resorted to slotting him as a flier, if at all. His inconsistency surrounding moments of glory is baffling. Carlos Ortiz … Remember that intense fortnight in the fall? He traveled to Japan for the no-cut ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP only to withdraw at the midpoint with a sore left shoulder. Two weeks later at Mayakoba in his native Mexico, he circled five birdies in his last seven holes and still checked up four strokes back of champion Viktor Hovland. After that gutty performance, Ortiz succumbed to the injury and forewent his only title defense on the PGA TOUR in Houston. PGA WEST guarantees three rounds to test the shoulder and shed the rust. He’s 2-for-4 in the tournament but neither payday went for a top 45, so that cements the decision to use this week for observation only. Joshua Creel … Tested positive for COVID-19 after his opening round at Waialae and was forced to withdraw. The rookie is 1-for-4 on the season with a T40 at Sea Island. Seung-Yul Noh … Late scratch to a sore back in Houston, so he hasn’t pegged it in meaningful competition since Halloween. Still has 12 starts on his Major Medical Extension (link: https://www.pgatour.com/fantasy/medical-extensions.html) to gather 265.815 FedExCup points and retain status, but he hasn’t connected for a top 25 on the PGA TOUR since early summer of 2020. He’s also missed the cut in his last three trips to PGA WEST. Grayson Murray … Missed the cut by two strokes in the Korn Ferry Tour’s season-opening stop in The Bahamas. Since he has two starts remaining on a medical extension, it was the first of up to five rehab starts he can use. The 28-year-old hadn’t played since an injured right knee forced him to walk off TPC Twin Cities during his second round of the 3M Open last July. NOTABLE WDs Charley Hoffman … Although he wouldn’t have ranked highly among ownership percentages in any format, this is a bummer. The 2007 breakthrough champion of the Amex was slated to end a two-month break after a sore back forced him out just before Houston. The same malady knocked him out during the third round of last year’s annual trip to the Coachella Valley. Because he’s sustained inspiring form this long, remain patient if you’re in a full-season format. After all, he retained this commitment until after the deadline, so that’s the silver lining. Martin Laird … This is his first withdrawal after a commitment deadline and before the opening round since Valspar in 2019, so it’s uncommon for him. Also, since joining the PGA TOUR in 2008, this is his first-ever DNP in the Amex. That said, we’re not going to miss him since he cashed in only one of the last four editions. He’s better suited as complementary material in deeper long-term formats, anyway. RECAP – SONY OPEN IN HAWAII POWER RANKINGS Power Ranking Golfer Result 1 Corey Conners 11th 2 Marc Leishman T36 3 Webb Simpson T61 4 Cameron Smith MC 5 Sungjae Im MC 6 Hideki Matsuyama Win 7 Kevin Na T20 8 Russell Henley P2 9 Talor Gooch T27 10 Kevin Kisner T3 11 Charles Howell III T36 12 Billy Horschel T36 13 Matt Jones MC 14 Abraham Ancer MC 15 Seamus Power T3 Wild Card Jason Kokrak T17 SLEEPERS Golfer (Prop) Result Joel Dahmen (top 20) MC John Huh (top 20) MC Chan Kim (top 20) MC Peter Malnati (top 20) MC Aaron Rai (top 20) MC GOLFBET Bet, Result Hideki Matsuyama, Marc Leishman & Corey Conners all to make the cut (+120) Matsuyama, Win; Leishman, T36; Conners, 11th BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR January 18 … none January 19 … Brian Harman (35); Tommy Fleetwood (31) January 20 … none January 21 … none January 22 … Graham DeLaet (40) January 23 … none January 24 … Jim Knous (32) Visit BetMGM.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ years of age or older to wager. 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